Notícias

The US dollar has declined by more than 10% since President Trump took office, driven by policy uncertainty, lower growth expectations, and rising inflation concerns.

Since early November 2024, the gold price has risen from USD 2,600 to highs of above USD 3,500 per ounce. The precious metal received additional support in early February when investors realised that Donald Trump was serious about his tariff programme.

Observers and investors were expecting the US dollar to go up in value. This was without counting on the new US administration’s erratic policymaking and announcements on tariffs. Where is it going next and what other factors are affecting the greenback?

At UBP, we think that silver is set to rise substantially over the coming weeks and months, reflecting large global inventory shifts and an increasingly compelling valuation profile.

Gold can continue to rise above levels of USD 3,000 per oz this year, as supported by several factors.

In our latest Forex Focus podcast, UBP’s Global Head of FX Strategy Peter Kinsella interviews Saeed Amen of Turnleaf Analytics on the evolution of market research with artificial intelligence.

In this podcast our Global Head of Forex Strategy Peter Kinsella sheds some light on the mechanisms behind gold’s spectacular rise.

Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have risen by nearly 40%, outpacing every major developed market equity index – even the S&P 500.

Over the summer months, gold rose to new all-time highs at levels of around USD 2,685 per oz. The nearly relentless rise in the gold price reflects several factors.

There are signs that sterling is set to embark on an upward trend after several years in the doldrums.

In January, gold traded in a tight range of between USD 2,000 and USD 2,050 per oz. This tight trading range reflected a generally subdued trading environment – three-month implied volatilities fell to levels of around 10% – which is a relatively low level of volatility for the yellow metal.

Coming into 2024, here at UBP we hold a constructive view on the JPY. We anticipate that it will continue to appreciate over the course of the year, and we envisage a USD/JPY downward move to levels of around 135 by year-end, with risk skewed to the downside of this level. This represents a decline of at least 6% from current levels. Our generally constructive stance on JPY exchange rates reflects several factors.