Carlos Casanova

A intervenção conjunta dos EUA e do Japão sobre o iene — a primeira ação cambial coordenada entre os dois países em 15 anos — demonstra a seriedade com que os decisores políticos encaram agora a fraqueza do iene. Embora o impacto imediato tenha sido substancial, a eficácia a médio e longo prazo depende dos fundamentos económicos e, acima de tudo, do amplo diferencial de taxas de juro entre os EUA e o Japão, que mantém as operações de carry trade atraentes e deixa o iene vulnerável, a menos que o Banco do Japão (BoJ) aumente ainda mais as taxas de juro ou que a Reserva Federal dos EUA proceda a cortes nas taxas. Quais são os principais obstáculos que o BoJ tem de superar para apoiar a estabilidade cambial sem comprometer o crescimento?

China’s fifteenth five-year plan (2026–2030), to be unveiled by the National People’s Congress in March, is expected to reshape how the People’s Bank of China manages the renminbi (RMB) exchange rate.

China is positioning itself to become a global leader in technological innovation.

Trade tensions with the United States, marked by 50% tariffs on Indian exports, have dampened sentiment. However, despite trade-related uncertainties, the growth outlook has been revised upwards, reflecting India’s strong long-term potential.

On 12 May, the United States (US) and China established a temporary ‘trade consultation mechanism’, reducing tariffs by 115% for 90 days. While this may ease tensions, high tariffs are still expected to exert upside pressure on US prices, and trade volatility could drag on economic growth in China.

The post-election fiscal tightening in 2024, coupled with persistent inflationary pressures, has cast a shadow over India’s economy.

As part of UBP’s 2025 Investment Outlook, senior economist Carlos Casanova examines China’s recent efforts to address its structural challenges. Despite the country’s initiatives, UBP remains cautious about the prospects of the world’s second-largest economy, as they are likely to fall short of expectations.

The statements in late 2024 from China’s central bank and the country’s Politburo sparked hopes of a ‘whatever it takes’ moment, only to see these dashed, as policy actions have fallen short of expectations.