Notizie

July’s softer inflation leaves a September US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hold as the most probable scenario.

July reinforced our convictions on companies positioned to benefit from artificial intelligence (AI), despite the marked underperformance of US technology stocks at the beginning of the month, as a result of investor concerns about the monetisation of AI-related investments.

I dati sul mercato del lavoro statunitense hanno registrato un rallentamento, alleviando la pressione sulla Fed affinché proceda a un aumento dei tassi di interesse nel breve termine.

La Fed ha lasciato i tassi invariati, ma ha fornito poche indicazioni sulle prospettive future, provocando un aumento dei rendimenti obbligazionari e un indebolimento del dollaro.

L'escalation delle tensioni in Medio Oriente ha provocato un'impennata dei prezzi del petrolio e ha spinto i rendimenti a lungo termine statunitensi ai livelli più alti dall'inizio del 2025, mentre sono riemersi i rischi di inflazione e i mercati hanno rivalutato la possibilità di futuri aumenti dei tassi su entrambe le sponde dell'Atlantico.

L'inflazione negli Stati Uniti ha sorpreso al ribasso, smorzando le aspettative di un aumento dei tassi, mentre la ripresa delle ostilità in Medio Oriente ha fatto impennare i prezzi del petrolio.

The collapse of the ceasefire between the US and Iran has pushed oil prices higher.

In June, we highlighted a paradox: a demanding macroeconomic environment, yet markets buoyed by exceptional corporate earnings. The mid-year point validates that reading and brings with it a turning point. The recent agreements between the United States and Iran have drawn a line under the energy shock that dominated the first half of the year, and the landscape now opening up is a different one, calling for greater selectivity.

Cooling US employment and easing eurozone inflation are strengthening the case for an extended pause from both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) – a supportive backdrop for risk assets.

A fading energy shock drove developed market rates lower, even as US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation surprised on the upside at 4.07% y/y, with artificial intelligence (AI)-related costs emerging as a new structural source of price pressure.

Global equities rose 1.2%, supported by progress on the US–Iran agreement and lower oil prices.

A tentative US-Iran ceasefire drove a broad-based rally across rates, credit and risk assets last week, even as US inflation data sent mixed signals. Government bonds rose sharply as falling oil prices eased pressure on central banks.