The reframing of the global geopolitical order, coupled with the race for supremacy in AI, forms the cornerstone of UBP’s portfolio construction approach.
For our 2026 Investment Outlook, the reshaping of the global geopolitical order, coupled with the race for supremacy in artificial intelligence (AI), forms the cornerstone of our portfolio construction approach. Five key themes emerge from this dynamic.
1) Long-term growth of artificial intelligence
AI has emerged as a strategic priority for governments, seen not only as a driver of economic growth, but also a pillar of national security and global competitiveness. To safeguard their leadership in this technology, countries are implementing targeted policies and allocating resources, creating a convergence of public and private efforts that underpins AI’s long-term growth trajectory.
Recent concerns, however, have arisen over AI monetisation and a potential bubble in technology valuations. We view current share prices as reflecting tangible earnings growth – particularly the rapid expansion of cloud computing and expected productivity gains – rather than speculative excess. For now, the AI investment cycle remains in its early-to-mid stages.
2) China technology enters a new era
Driven by unprecedented government support after years of regulatory crackdowns, China’s technology sector has accelerated sharply since the launch of DeepSeek in early 2025. Beijing has made semiconductor self-sufficiency and AI strategic priorities amid ongoing trade tensions with the United States. US restrictions on chip access have compelled Chinese developers to innovate with AI models that now distinguish themselves for their quality, cost efficiency, and open-source nature.
While these recent technological advances have positioned China as the only serious competitor to the US in the AI race, domestic economic fragilities remain. Nonetheless, 2026 is expected to bring accelerated investment in AI infrastructure, the rollout of new products, and rising monetisation in both cloud and adtech sectors.
3) Rising energy demand
After two decades of stagnation, global electricity demand is entering a phase of sustainable growth, supported by the renewal of ageing infrastructure and unprecedented energy consumption in advanced economies.
Electrification, energy security, and the rapid expansion of data centres supporting AI and cloud computing are driving growth all along the electricity value chain, from raw material suppliers, to utilities, service providers, and energy producers.
4) Strategic demand for metals and minerals intensifies
A global race to secure access to critical minerals is under way. The United States has adopted a determined stance, recognising its heavy reliance on China as a strategic vulnerability. In this context, building strategic reserves has emerged as both a rational and durable response to geopolitical fragmentation, trade tensions, and concentrated supply chains.
Unlike conventional cyclical demand, this strategic appetite is primarily aimed at ensuring supply continuity in the event of disruption – whether due to government actions, trade restrictions, or geopolitical conflict – and is therefore largely insulated from macroeconomic cycles.
5) Gold: the bull market continues into 2026
Following an exceptional 2025, during which gold rose by roughly 70% – one of its strongest performances since the 1970s –, returns are expected to normalise in 2026. Yet gold remains underpinned by structural factors that are likely to persist.
A geopolitical landscape far more tense than in previous decades, alongside a transition towards a more multipolar world, is providing a tailwind for gold amid elevated risks of trade conflicts, supply chain disruptions, and medium-term inflationary pressures. Ongoing central bank demand continues to support the yellow metal’s price.
Read our Investment Outlook 2026 for more insights.
The financial instruments and investment strategies portrayed in this document are for informative purposes only. They may differ from those effectively held in an investor’ portfolio. Depending on the jurisdiction and investment profile, one or some of these instruments and strategies – including, where applicable, options – may not be permitted, available or suitable. The opinions expressed herein are correct as at 19 January 2026 and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target, where provided, is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way.
