News

La meilleure nouvelle de 2024 pourrait être la confirmation de la désinflation mondiale.

China’s economy decelerated in Q2-23, led by a sequential decline in manufacturing and investment. Services continue to expand at a slower pace. Below potential growth is resulting in rising unemployment in April and May.

With UBP’s Investment Outlook 2023 wrapping up its global roadshow, our Asia Senior Economist Carlos Casanova takes stock of the major macroeconomic events that marked 2022 in and around China and looks ahead to the landscape unfolding in 2023.

The global economy remains resilient despite negative momentum in Q1 & Q2. UBP’s economists Patrice Gautry and Carlos Casanova take a tour of the macro scenario around the world.

Norman Villamin, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Wealth Management, and Patrice Gautry, UBP Chief Economist, hosted a special webinar to discuss the investment implications of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The Chinese economy is facing headwinds leading into 2022, including: 1) Ongoing regulatory crackdown; 2) Exposure to COVID outbreaks; 3) A slump in the housing sector; and 4) Power shortages over the winter months.

Tighter rules have led to rapid deleveraging in China’s housing sector. Embattled real-estate developer Evergrande’s situation has sent shock waves through the credit market. The company’s default looks manageable but could become a systemic issue if the authorities do not facilitate an orderly default.

Asian markets are being slow to emerge from lockdown, despite the rest of the world gradually opening up its economies again. The reasons for this have much to do with low vaccination rates, but also with governance. A growth gap between developed and emerging markets is beginning to appear.

Asia Macro - The Olympics will take place despite the State of Emergency (SOE) being extended until August 23. International spectators have been banned and consumer sentiment remains subdued, with few people supporting the event.

Asia Macro - India is experiencing a fresh wave of COVID-19, with the daily number of confirmed cases increasing exponentially to 400,000 in May. Moreover, the new variant strain was labelled a “global health risk” by the WHO.

Asia Macro - China: Domestic demand takes over for the next leg of the recovery