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For nearly two years, the AI trade has been the single most powerful engine behind global equity returns. It has lifted indices, concentrated their leadership in a handful of mega-cap names, and left much of the rest of the market trading in its shadow.

The US economy remains resilient, but rising prices and political pressure are keeping investors cautious.

Emerging market debt is not a single investment; it includes government and corporate bonds issued in major currencies, such as the US dollar, as well as local-currency bonds, currencies, and frontier markets. These areas respond differently to global growth, inflation, volatility, and geopolitical developments.

Central bank doctrine recommends not reacting directly to a supply shock on the proviso that it is temporary and that inflation is not already persistently above its target. Currently, neither of these two conditions has been fulfilled. Underlying inflation, as measured by the PCE index, came in at 3.0% in August, and the US–Iran conflict has been dragging on for over six months.

With a Code of Conduct, the Swiss Single Family Office Association aims to establish common standards. At an event hosted by Union Bancaire Privée (UBP) and finews in Zurich, representatives of family offices and the financial sector discussed what the code means in practice and why the requirements placed on single family offices are increasing.

A month ago, we wrote that the outlook for equity markets remained reassuring, supported by resilient earnings, and that only a tightening of financial conditions would signal a genuine change in regime.