新闻中心/瑞联卓见

正如承诺的那样，首席芭蕾舞演员史蒂文·麦克雷在首届“野性芭蕾”（Ballet Sauvage）——一场在湖畔举行的独特而令人叹为观止的露天演出——举办一年后，携一支星光熠熠的舞者与音乐家阵容重返洛桑。UBP作为赞助方，邀请了部分现有客户和潜在客户出席活动。

随着中东冲突不断升级，油价飙升至每桶100美元以上，导致上周政府债券和股票市场普遍出现抛售，通胀担忧推动美国、欧元区和英国的收益率大幅攀升。

US President Trump’s approval rating is among the lowest for a sitting president in post-World War II US history and leaves an 80% probability that the US House of Representatives will shift to Democratic control, with US Senate facing a 50:50 chance of switching to Democratic control.

Our outlook for risk assets remains constructive, supported by broadening earnings growth, though tempered by persistent inflation and an oil market showing little sign of easing. Against this backdrop, we are raising our target range for US 10-year yields to 4.25–4.75%, with rising yields and oil prices standing out as the principal risks to our central scenario.

强劲的就业数据再次引发通胀担忧，并推高了加息概率；与此同时，美伊紧张局势升级导致美国国债、德国国债和英国国债收益率走高，不过市场对美联储9月加息的预期概率仍维持在60%。