1. Newsroom
  2. EM opportunities in 2020
Menu
洞见 09.01.2020

EM opportunities in 2020

EM opportunities in 2020

Podcast - We see a more helpful economic climate for EM, at least going into the early part of the year, with some signs of growth stabilisation and less pressure on exports.


Three of our experts discuss EM opportunities in 2020. Listen to our latest podcast now:

If the tariffs between the US and China have indeed peaked, there should be further positive spill-over for EM exports, business confidence and growth in the months ahead. This climate argues for increasing exposure to EM hard-currency bonds in our view, as we see flows attracted by decent levels of yields in comparison to developed markets. We also see good opportunities in EM local bond markets, especially in currencies. This echoes our broader view on the dollar and the likely supportive capital inflows to EM. Being selective is going to be key in both hard and local currency bonds, as last year demonstrated the importance of domestic political risks and policy shifts. In currencies, for example, there are some that we will be careful to avoid despite the nominal yields (e.g. the Turkish lira) and others we will be happy to be long – those where yields dovetail with helpful economic fundamentals (e.g. the Russian rouble).

We will of course be monitoring political risks, especially in Latin America, but arguably even there the peak level of uncertainty has passed. Global rates and US Treasuries will continue to be an important bellwether for our markets, but on the assumption that US yields are in a range, we see room for some EM hard currency yield compression, particularly in sovereign sub-investment grade.


Peter_Kinsella_150x150.jpg

Peter Kinsella
Global Head of Forex Strategy

CHOW_Koon_150x150.jpg

Koon Chow
Emerging Markets Macro and FX strategist

Thomas_Christiansen_150x150.jpg

Thomas Christiansen
Senior Portfolio Manager
Head of EM Sovereign Debt

Expertise

Global equities

Invest in companies with superior and sustainable value creation.


延伸阅读

洞见 11.06.2024

Impact Report 2023: a major milestone for nature investing

2023 offered a mixed bag for sustainability. While economic anxieties dominated the news cycle, significant strides were made in recognising the interconnectedness of environmental and financial well-being.

洞见 07.06.2024

Swiss sustainability-related investments see slight growth

Sustainability-related investments in Switzerland returned to a growth path last year after seeing a significant drop between 2021 and 2022.

洞见 05.06.2024

UBP House View - June 2024

Eased ECB policies will boost Europe's recovery. As US growth normalises, developed market economies should converge in the second half of the year, while recent regional market rallies have reinforced our confidence in the UK and Switzerland.