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Over the past 15 months, most asset classes have put in positive performances. However, we’ve entered a transitional phase marked by rising volatility, political risks, and market dissonance. To navigate this shifting landscape, we have reduced our global equity exposure and increased our conviction on hedge funds, as alternative investments are well-positioned to capitalise on current market uncertainties.

Earlier in August, global equity markets tumbled due to disappointing US macro data and the unwinding of the Yen carry trade. However, as we expect elevated market volatility until the US Presidential election in November, it may be premature to consider buying the dip.

The attempted assassination of Donald Trump, Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race, and the rise of Kamala Harris: unexpected twists have emerged in the US presidential election.

Equity markets rallied during the first half of the year, driven by earnings growth, a macro backdrop that was more resilient than expected, and continued appetite for AI winners (the “Magnificent 7”). Looking ahead, we anticipate a broadening of equity markets’ leadership. Read more about our insights in the July edition of UBP’s House View.

Our experts examine the tumultuous US election landscape and historical market behaviour during election years, as well as anticipate the fiscal challenges awaiting the next president amidst record-high US federal debt levels.

Structured products have changed a great deal, after a long period in which they were treated with a degree of scepticism by investors, and as a result of tighter regulations. Although the number of clients using them remains very (too) small, they are likely to play a growing role in asset allocation strategies.

Eased ECB policies will boost Europe's recovery. As US growth normalises, developed market economies should converge in the second half of the year, while recent regional market rallies have reinforced our confidence in the UK and Switzerland.

Against a higher-for-longer interest rate landscape and limited potential for spread compression, fixed income returns will mainly derive from carry.

US national government debt-to-GDP reached 120% in 2023, recapturing the level seen following years of wartime spending in 1945.

In light of the extended duration of high interest rates, we’re employing a carry strategy, ramping up our allocation to high-yield bonds.

Strong Q1 economic data from the US manufacturing, housing and employment sectors, combined with inflation of between 3.5–4% since mid-2023, have caused markets not to only price out the six rate cuts they had priced in up until the start of 2024, but, more recently, to also begin to question whether the Fed might forego rate cuts entirely in 2024.