新闻中心/瑞联卓见

美日联合干预日元——这是两国15年来首次协调采取的汇率行动——表明政策制定者目前对日元走弱问题的重视程度。 尽管此次干预的短期影响显著，但其中长期效果取决于基本面，尤其是美日之间的巨大利差——这一利差使得套利交易仍具吸引力，并使日元处于脆弱地位，除非日本央行（BoJ）进一步加息或美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）降息。 日本央行在支持汇率稳定的同时又不损害经济增长，必须克服哪些关键障碍？

China’s fifteenth five-year plan (2026–2030), to be unveiled by the National People’s Congress in March, is expected to reshape how the People’s Bank of China manages the renminbi (RMB) exchange rate.

China is positioning itself to become a global leader in technological innovation.

On 12 May, the United States (US) and China established a temporary ‘trade consultation mechanism’, reducing tariffs by 115% for 90 days. While this may ease tensions, high tariffs are still expected to exert upside pressure on US prices, and trade volatility could drag on economic growth in China.

The tariffs announcement by US President Trump last Wednesday evening exceeded most expectations, raising the average tariff on US imports from 2.5% to 24%, a level not seen since the 1930–40s.

Supported by innovation and the government, technology is the only Chinese sector offering great visibility.

After a historic US pre-election debate, commentators agree Kamala Harris has profited, while Donald Trump’s ratings slipped, but how have markets responded?

The market turmoil of recent weeks has shifted the probability of a Fed rate cut dramatically from only several weeks ago. Indeed, whereas markets were previously cautious about a rate cut as early as September, by mid-August, markets began to price in an equal probability of a 25 bps rate cut as a 50 bps cut in September.

US national government debt-to-GDP reached 120% in 2023, recapturing the level seen following years of wartime spending in 1945.

Strong Q1 economic data from the US manufacturing, housing and employment sectors, combined with inflation of between 3.5–4% since mid-2023, have caused markets not to only price out the six rate cuts they had priced in up until the start of 2024, but, more recently, to also begin to question whether the Fed might forego rate cuts entirely in 2024.

In January, gold traded in a tight range of between USD 2,000 and USD 2,050 per oz. This tight trading range reflected a generally subdued trading environment – three-month implied volatilities fell to levels of around 10% – which is a relatively low level of volatility for the yellow metal.