1. Newsroom
  2. Podcast - No election rally for the dollar
Menu
Analisi 23.10.2020

Podcast - No election rally for the dollar

Podcast - No election rally for the dollar

Our Global Head of Forex Strategy, Peter Kinsella, shares his thoughts on the forthcoming US presidential election.



The forthcoming US presidential election is a key moment for FX markets, because it will lead to important economic and political policy changes. Consensus expectations are for a Joe Biden victory, but as yet, a so-called ‘blue wave’, where the Democrats take control of both houses of Congress, has not been priced in. We anticipate that currencies with a high beta to global growth, like the Australian dollar and the Swedish krona, will fare well in a ‘blue wave’ scenario. If President Donald Trump wins, USD/JPY may fall to levels of around 103.

Our expertise

Here at UBP, we anticipate that the USD will weaken on a sustained basis over the coming year, reflecting the rapid deterioration in the US current account deficit. Longer-term USD weakness is inevitable in our view, and if Trump retains the presidency, long gold positions should also perform well, due to the possibility of a continued deterioration in US–China relations.

Plug in your headphones!

Peter_Kinsella_150x150.jpg
Peter Kinsella
Global Head of Forex Strategy

Expertise

Impact investing - Contributing to a more sustainable future

What are the key features of impact investing?

Le news più lette

Analisi 10.06.2021

COVID-19: UBP vi terrà aggiornati

Dalla comparsa del coronavirus, UBP accompagna e sostiene i suoi clienti nel contesto inedito di questa crisi sanitaria mondiale. La Banca vi aggiorna regolarmente sull’adeguamento dei suoi piani alle regole precauzionali fissate dalle autorità e condivide con voi le più aggiornate analisi dei suoi esperti sulle conseguenze della pandemia per l’economia mondiale e i mercati finanziari.

Analisi 29.07.2021

What ESG factors mean for bonds in EM

The creditworthiness of an emerging market country is often thought to be determined simply by its ability to service and repay debt.

Analisi 21.05.2021

Impact Report 2020

UBP pubblica il suo Rapporto d’impatto 2020 che illustra gli sviluppi avvenuti lo scorso anno nelle sue soluzioni di impact investing, tra cui il lancio di una strategia dei mercati emergenti.


Altro da leggere

Analisi 21.09.2021

587 investors press COP26 governments on climate

The world stands at the beginning of a pivotal decade in which institutional investors and governments each have a responsibility to accelerate action to tackle the climate crisis. UBP is a signatory of the 2021 Global Investor Statement to Governments on the Climate Crisis.

Analisi 17.09.2021

UBP is an official signatory to the UK Stewardship Code

The UK Stewardship Code 2020 sets high stewardship standards for those investing on behalf of UK savers and pensioners.

Analisi 13.09.2021

China: the landscape has changed

China’s deployment of a growing range of tools across its policy arsenal highlights the sharp pivot that has taken place from the ‘To get rich is glorious’ era of Deng Xiaoping to the ‘Common Prosperity’ epoch being pursued in earnest by its current leader, Xi Jinping.