1. Newsroom
  2. EM currencies in the wake of the coronavirus
Menu
Expertise 17.02.2020

EM currencies in the wake of the coronavirus

EM currencies in the wake of the coronavirus

Since the beginning of the year, most emerging market currencies have registered losses against the USD.



Consensus expectations at the start of January were broadly constructive for risky assets and for emerging markets. Economists and investors expected a combination of increased fiscal spending and a modest rebound in industrial production, reflecting the US–China trade deal.

However, the effects of the Coronavirus outbreak have been unambiguously negative for most Asian currencies and will have a significant effect on global growth. Consequently, oil prices have declined, which poses problems for oil-producing emerging market economies and currencies. The decline in the oil price also suggests that regional inflation risks are now on the downside, meaning that emerging countries’ central banks can either maintain their currently loose stance or ease policy even further in the months ahead.

There are some exceptions to this broad trend. Emerging market currencies with high real interest rates and strong current account surpluses have performed well and will continue to do so. Our EM macro and FX Strategist Koon Chow and our Global Head of Forex Strategy Peter Kinsella discuss these recent developments and the outlook for the coming months.

Our expertise

Peter_Kinsella_150x150.jpg
Peter Kinsella
Global Head of Forex Strategy

CHOW_Koon_150x150.jpg
Koon Chow
EM Macro and FX Strategist

Expertise

Swiss & Global Equities

Why Swiss equities now? This market offers equity investors the stability and agility they need to navigate this volatile period. 

Read more
Expertise

European Equities

European equities offer unrivalled opportunities in terms of breadth of sector and market exposure.

Read more

Actualités les plus lues

Expertise 01.10.2020

Covid-19: Restez informés avec l'UBP

Depuis l’apparition du coronavirus, l’UBP accompagne et soutient ses clients dans le contexte inédit de cette crise sanitaire mondiale. La Banque vous informe régulièrement de l’adaptation de ses dispositifs aux règles de précaution fixées par les autorités et partage avec vous les dernières analyses de ses experts sur les conséquences de la pandémie pour l’économie mondiale et les marchés financiers.

Expertise 30.06.2020

Nouvelles perspectives d’investissement 2020 de l’UBP

L’économie globale à la croisée des chemins
Expertise 24.06.2020

Market turmoil brings new opportunities for pragmatic investors

March 2020 was difficult time for many investors, as COVID-19 spread across Europe and the US, leading to sharp sell-offs in fixed-income credit markets. While such market turbulence is not to be welcomed, its occurrence can create opportunities.


A lire également

Expertise 21.11.2020

UBP Investment Outlook 2021

Le Meilleur des Mondes

Expertise 09.11.2020

Will Chinese domestic consumers become the next global growth engine ?

China revealed the key themes of its upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan (14-FYP) and long-range objectives through the year 2035. The Fifth Plenum took place amid signs of stronger economic recovery, with better performance spilling over onto the domestic sector.
Expertise 02.11.2020

Des joyaux cachés parmi les SMID Caps suisses et européennes

Les sociétés de petite et moyenne capitalisation («SMID Caps») affichent traditionnellement des taux de croissance et des rendements supérieurs sur le long terme en comparaison des grandes capitalisations. Il est en effet plus facile de générer une croissance dynamique à partir d’une plus petite structure. Par ailleurs, les SMID Caps suisses et européennes offrent généralement aux investisseurs une exposition idéale aux grandes tendances de croissance séculaires.