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Many people are wondering whose economy and financial markets will perform the best in the next 12 months – Europe’s or the US’s. Let’s explore the current and potential performances of both economies to see who is in the lead.
Key Points
The recent economic momentum is definitely in favour of the US economy: business and consumer confidence have both reached news highs in the US, while the same indicators have stayed sluggish and even declined in Europe.
The economic outlook continues to look brighter in the US: growth prospects for next year are around 2.5% in the US after 2.8 to 3% in 2018.
The US is likely to use its economic policy further to maintain the positive momentum, and may boost infrastructure spending and apply new fiscal measures.
For Europe, the projections give a limited budget deficit and point to some moderation in public debt.
2023 began with market optimism that the US could successfully navigate its battle with inflation. Recent data have confirmed our suspicions that getting inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target will be more challenging than markets had been assuming.
As a decade of yield repression comes to an end, building a fixed income portfolio with an acceptable yield has become an easier task. Given a deteriorating economic background and hawkish policymakers, we believe in harvesting the attractive yields offered by short-term quality bonds, which currently have the best risk-return profile.
The steep fall in valuations that started at the end of 2021 disproportionately affected the innovative growth segment of the Japanese market. With the stronger yen, companies that are less vulnerable to global cycles could prove to be the ones to consider.
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