Subscription confirmation

Our outlook for risk assets remains constructive, supported by broadening earnings growth, though tempered by persistent inflation and an oil market showing little sign of easing. Against this backdrop, we are raising our target range for US 10-year yields to 4.25–4.75%, with rising yields and oil prices standing out as the principal risks to our central scenario.

Strong jobs data reignited inflation concerns and increased rate-hike odds, as escalating US-Iran tensions pushed Treasury, Bund, and gilt yields higher, though September Fed odds held steady at 60%.

Ahmad Chahidi, senior wealth planner at Union Bancaire Privée (UBP) Middle East, shares how conversations with families have changed, why liquidity has become a form of strategic protection and the coming generational wealth transfer across the GCC.

The joint US-Japan yen intervention – the first coordinated currency action between the two countries in 15 years – signals how seriously policymakers now regard the yen’s weakness. While the immediate impact was substantial, the medium-to-long-term effectiveness hinges on the fundamentals, and above all on the wide US-Japan rate gap that keeps carry trades attractive and leaves the yen vulnerable unless the Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightens rates further or the US Federal Reserve makes rate cuts. What are the key hurdles the BoJ must overcome to support currency stability without undermining growth?

From grid upgrades to cooling systems, Swiss companies offer a diversified exposure to the artificial intelligence investment cycle.

Warsh’s hawkish tone on core PCE and rate primacy, backed by resilient data, raised the odds of a September rate hike, while Nvidia’s guidance kept the AI cycle intact, though equity gains stayed narrow and earnings-dependent.

The key question over these past two years has been whether or not the massive investments in data centres, chips and computer models would translate into equally impressive returns; the latest earnings season has brought with it the proof.

Global PMIs held up despite high energy costs, with inflation easing in the US and eurozone, although not by enough to fully dispel concerns.