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The Fed now appears to prioritise labour market stability over inflation risks, prompting us to reshape our investment strategy and overall asset allocation.

Without further pressure from the White House, the Fed is set to cut rates in September. Markets are debating whether the move will be 25 or 50 basis points after weak payroll figures, though we continue to expect only a 25-bp cut given the persistent inflationary pressures. The prospect of lower rates has buoyed equities, while attention this week will turn to US inflation data for evidence of tariff-related effects.

The start of autumn marks a turning point for the Federal Reserve; our rate outlook is shifting accordingly.

While President Trump is pressing for greater influence over the Fed in the pursuit of lower interest rates, US small caps continued to benefit from declining short-term US yields. Attention turned to Nvidia where strong Q2 earnings were eclipsed by underwhelming guidance and geopolitics impacting sales in China, sending the stock lower; even so, global technology equities outperformed. This week, the focus is set to shift to key US macro indicators, namely employment data.

An executive order is opening the door for private assets to access US defined-contribution pension schemes.

With Fed chairman Jerome Powell opening the door to a rate cut in September, last week’s Jackson Hole symposium reinforced our forecast of two reductions this year. Global equities closed on a positive note, buoyed by the policy easing. However, the impact of tariffs must be fully assessed over the coming weeks.