UBP House View - August 2025

With Fed chairman Jerome Powell opening the door to a rate cut in September, last week’s Jackson Hole symposium reinforced our forecast of two reductions this year. Global equities closed on a positive note, buoyed by the policy easing. However, the impact of tariffs must be fully assessed over the coming weeks.

The latest US inflation data confirm that price pressures are set to trend higher in the coming months. Nevertheless, rate cuts remain on the table given the slowdown in the labour market. As earnings season winds down after a solid set of results, market attention will shift to GDP developments and leading indicators, as well as to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole meeting on Friday.

Relief from US tariffs has fuelled renewed optimism, though commercial frictions remain, notably with India and Switzerland. Hope of a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire and rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have further buoyed equities. However, with equity valuations increasingly stretched, markets may face bouts of short-term volatility.

The United Kingdom, Europe, South Korea, and potentially China in the near future: the list of US-negotiated trade deals continues to grow, yet uncertainty persists with several key partners. At the same time, investor focus is shifting back to economic fundamentals, with softer-than-expected US employment data released on Friday triggering a sell-off. Nonetheless, recent tech earnings results reaffirmed the sector’s enduring dominance.

Commercial agreements are fuelling market optimism, reinforcing confidence in a clear path for corporate earnings growth. As the earnings season progresses, 34% of S&P 500 constituents have published their results, with 80% surpassing analysts’ estimates. This week, attention will be focussed on key economic data and potential new trade agreements as the 1 August tariff truce deadline approaches.

US banking giants led the start of the earnings season, with their management expressing confidence about consumer resilience despite economic uncertainty and price pressures, with the latter being confirmed by more solid June US headline inflation data which came in at 2.6% year-on-year. This figure also supported further consolidation of the US dollar, although we expect this to be short-lived. More corporate results are due this week and are likely to play a key role in steering market sentiment.

The fresh salvo of tariffs paused the rally on global equity markets, leaving them broadly stable. Renewed tariff threats are reigniting concerns about global industrial supply chains, generating doubts about whether or not these pressures will erode corporate margins. The upcoming earnings season, which kicks off this week, may offer some hints of an answer.

With summer under way, aligning income generation with long-term growth helps reinforce portfolio resilience. A well-balanced allocation remains essential to navigating the coming months with confidence.

Investor sentiment in equities was buoyed last week by the passage of the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’, signs of US economic resilience, and hopes of easing trade tensions.

US equities remain our preferred sector for the second half of the year, underpinned by stronger earnings growth expectations, a persistently weaker dollar, and significant exposure to the technology sector.