UBP Investment Outlook 2019

Managing Risks in a Fragmented Global Economy

Entering 2018 investors brimmed with enthusiasm as global synchronised growth continued like in 2017, confirming that the world was finally moving on after the crisis. However, while financial markets remained attractive, monetary policy normalisation combined with near historically high equity valuations, near all-time low bond yields, and record tight credit spreads soon led investors to expect more modest performances and heightened volatility. Although markets promise to hold up in 2019, the landscape is starting to look patchy: we believe that desynchronisation between economies will be the dominant theme in the coming year.

The US remains ahead in the economic and monetary cycle, driving strength in the dollar. Europe has finally managed to break out of its post-crisis deflation, but the continent’s recovery is sluggish and its growth pattern fragmented. As for emerging markets, they have dislocated with Asia remaining on track, while Latin America, Eastern Europe and the Middle East are all seeing sharp dispersion.

A brochure detailing the topics discussed at the conferences has been produced to provide additional insight.

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