Carlos Casanova

美日联合干预日元——这是两国15年来首次协调采取的汇率行动——表明政策制定者目前对日元走弱问题的重视程度。 尽管此次干预的短期影响显著，但其中长期效果取决于基本面，尤其是美日之间的巨大利差——这一利差使得套利交易仍具吸引力，并使日元处于脆弱地位，除非日本央行（BoJ）进一步加息或美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）降息。 日本央行在支持汇率稳定的同时又不损害经济增长，必须克服哪些关键障碍？

China’s fifteenth five-year plan (2026–2030), to be unveiled by the National People’s Congress in March, is expected to reshape how the People’s Bank of China manages the renminbi (RMB) exchange rate.

China is positioning itself to become a global leader in technological innovation.

Trade tensions with the United States, marked by 50% tariffs on Indian exports, have dampened sentiment. However, despite trade-related uncertainties, the growth outlook has been revised upwards, reflecting India’s strong long-term potential.

On 12 May, the United States (US) and China established a temporary ‘trade consultation mechanism’, reducing tariffs by 115% for 90 days. While this may ease tensions, high tariffs are still expected to exert upside pressure on US prices, and trade volatility could drag on economic growth in China.

The post-election fiscal tightening in 2024, coupled with persistent inflationary pressures, has cast a shadow over India’s economy.

As part of UBP’s 2025 Investment Outlook, senior economist Carlos Casanova examines China’s recent efforts to address its structural challenges. Despite the country’s initiatives, UBP remains cautious about the prospects of the world’s second-largest economy, as they are likely to fall short of expectations.

The statements in late 2024 from China’s central bank and the country’s Politburo sparked hopes of a ‘whatever it takes’ moment, only to see these dashed, as policy actions have fallen short of expectations.