Michaël Lok

The US government shutdown, which began on 1 October, has delayed the release of the closely watched non-farm payrolls report. Other economic data published last week were downbeat, reinforcing our expectation that the Federal Reserve will implement two 25-basis-point rate cuts (on 29 October and 10 December) to counter labour market weakness. Meanwhile, negotiations over government spending between the Democrats and Republicans are set to continue in the run-up to the third-quarter earnings season.

Equities are priced to perfection, yet we remain constructive but cautious, while staying upbeat on gold, where we have raised our conviction rating to 5/5.

Divergent remarks from Federal Reserve members combined with US macroeconomic data that was generally resilient have weighed on optimism for future rate cuts. Attention now turns to this week’s labour market report as a key gauge of job creation, while President Trump is set to meet Democratic and Republican leaders in an effort to avert a government shutdown.

Equities progressed following the US central bank’s 25 basis points rate cut to 4.00–4.25%, which helped fuel investor optimism. Alongside the Fed, several central banks, including the Bank of England (BoE) also met, with the latter leaving its rates unchanged at 4%. This week, attention turns to economic indicators.

Equities advanced over the week on expectations of a first Fed rate cut on 17 September. Investors will scrutinise the Fed’s commentary for guidance on further potential cuts in October and December, moves which have largely been priced in by the markets. Policy meetings are also scheduled at the Bank of Canada (BoC), the Bank of England (BoE), and the Norges Bank, with the European Central Bank (ECB) having decided last week to leave its key rate unchanged at 2%.

The Fed now appears to prioritise labour market stability over inflation risks, prompting us to reshape our investment strategy and overall asset allocation.

Without further pressure from the White House, the Fed is set to cut rates in September. Markets are debating whether the move will be 25 or 50 basis points after weak payroll figures, though we continue to expect only a 25-bp cut given the persistent inflationary pressures. The prospect of lower rates has buoyed equities, while attention this week will turn to US inflation data for evidence of tariff-related effects.

The start of autumn marks a turning point for the Federal Reserve; our rate outlook is shifting accordingly.

While President Trump is pressing for greater influence over the Fed in the pursuit of lower interest rates, US small caps continued to benefit from declining short-term US yields. Attention turned to Nvidia where strong Q2 earnings were eclipsed by underwhelming guidance and geopolitics impacting sales in China, sending the stock lower; even so, global technology equities outperformed. This week, the focus is set to shift to key US macro indicators, namely employment data.