Newsroom

Tactical risk management helped us ride out one of the sharpest market dips since 2020. Gold and cash remain reliable safe havens.

The US–Europe relations prevailing since World War II are shifting.

Trump’s activism on the US economy is creating fears of recession. To navigate short-term turbulence, we have tactically scaled back our exposure to macro-sensitive assets, such as US equities, including US midcaps, along with high-yield and emerging-market debt, while increasing our allocation to gold.

In New York as well as other major metro areas, once-bustling corporate offices are now quieter, leading companies to adjust to a new reality: remote working is no longer a temporary solution but rather a structural shift. Consequently, corporates are actively reducing their office space footprints, significantly increasing vacancies in the sector.

The post-election fiscal tightening in 2024, coupled with persistent inflationary pressures, has cast a shadow over India’s economy.

The year started with volatility in rates, as the 10-year Treasury yield oscillates amid shifting market dynamics.

At the start of the year, markets dismissed the prospect of US tariffs as mere threats rather than economic realities. But the new Trump administration’s first decisive moves – targeting China, Canada, Mexico, and soon, Europe – have shattered that assumption.

On his return to the Oval Office, Donald Trump swiftly sparked uncertainty with a trade offensive against Mexico, Canada and China. We expect the return of protectionist policies to fuel market volatility in the months ahead. In this environment, hedge funds and precious metals stand out as resilient investment choices.

Trump's agenda of higher tariffs, tax cuts, and stricter immigration measures could, if actually implemented, spur inflationary pressures, thus curbing the momentum for interest rate cuts. This ‘higher-for-longer’ interest rate environment favours hedge funds over fixed income investments – an asset class we have downgraded from 3/5 to 2/5.

After a strong performance in November driven by the re-election of Donald Trump, US equities remain one of our key convictions.

Emerging market (EM) corporate bonds have faced considerable challenges in recent years, with rising geopolitical tensions, defaults in China’s real estate sector, and elevated global interest rates dampening investor appetite; however, the tide may be turning. A shift in the global interest rate environment – marked by a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve and a fresh economic stimulus package in China – offers an opportunity to revisit this often-overlooked asset class.

The statements in late 2024 from China’s central bank and the country’s Politburo sparked hopes of a ‘whatever it takes’ moment, only to see these dashed, as policy actions have fallen short of expectations.