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Markets rallied on US–China trade deal progress and soft US inflation data, boosting risk assets and expectations of a Fed rate cut. Yields fell while credit spreads tightened. However, at the end of the week gains faded as Israel–Iran tensions flared up, but this lifted defence stocks. The US dollar weakened, while gold and oil rose on geopolitical tensions.

The US dollar has declined by more than 10% since President Trump took office, driven by policy uncertainty, lower growth expectations, and rising inflation concerns.

As we enter the second half of the year, the fading trade war rhetoric is paving the way for a renewed focus on diversified asset allocations.

Equity markets welcomed Trump’s 90-day tariff truce by rebounding swiftly. However, we are maintaining a wait-and-see stance during this pause, while hedging against potential US dollar weakness by increasing our exposure to gold.

Tactical risk management helped us ride out one of the sharpest market dips since 2020. Gold and cash remain reliable safe havens.

The US–Europe relations prevailing since World War II are shifting.

Trump’s activism on the US economy is creating fears of recession. To navigate short-term turbulence, we have tactically scaled back our exposure to macro-sensitive assets, such as US equities, including US midcaps, along with high-yield and emerging-market debt, while increasing our allocation to gold.

In New York as well as other major metro areas, once-bustling corporate offices are now quieter, leading companies to adjust to a new reality: remote working is no longer a temporary solution but rather a structural shift. Consequently, corporates are actively reducing their office space footprints, significantly increasing vacancies in the sector.

The post-election fiscal tightening in 2024, coupled with persistent inflationary pressures, has cast a shadow over India’s economy.

The year started with volatility in rates, as the 10-year Treasury yield oscillates amid shifting market dynamics.

At the start of the year, markets dismissed the prospect of US tariffs as mere threats rather than economic realities. But the new Trump administration’s first decisive moves – targeting China, Canada, Mexico, and soon, Europe – have shattered that assumption.

On his return to the Oval Office, Donald Trump swiftly sparked uncertainty with a trade offensive against Mexico, Canada and China. We expect the return of protectionist policies to fuel market volatility in the months ahead. In this environment, hedge funds and precious metals stand out as resilient investment choices.