UBP House View - September 2025

Without further pressure from the White House, the Fed is set to cut rates in September. Markets are debating whether the move will be 25 or 50 basis points after weak payroll figures, though we continue to expect only a 25-bp cut given the persistent inflationary pressures. The prospect of lower rates has buoyed equities, while attention this week will turn to US inflation data for evidence of tariff-related effects.

While President Trump is pressing for greater influence over the Fed in the pursuit of lower interest rates, US small caps continued to benefit from declining short-term US yields. Attention turned to Nvidia where strong Q2 earnings were eclipsed by underwhelming guidance and geopolitics impacting sales in China, sending the stock lower; even so, global technology equities outperformed. This week, the focus is set to shift to key US macro indicators, namely employment data.

With Fed chairman Jerome Powell opening the door to a rate cut in September, last week’s Jackson Hole symposium reinforced our forecast of two reductions this year. Global equities closed on a positive note, buoyed by the policy easing. However, the impact of tariffs must be fully assessed over the coming weeks.

The latest US inflation data confirm that price pressures are set to trend higher in the coming months. Nevertheless, rate cuts remain on the table given the slowdown in the labour market. As earnings season winds down after a solid set of results, market attention will shift to GDP developments and leading indicators, as well as to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole meeting on Friday.

Relief from US tariffs has fuelled renewed optimism, though commercial frictions remain, notably with India and Switzerland. Hope of a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire and rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have further buoyed equities. However, with equity valuations increasingly stretched, markets may face bouts of short-term volatility.

While the US earnings season has underpinned the equity rally, emerging risks – such as tariffs slowing the economy and fuelling price pressures – warrant investors’ attention. However, these risks remain insufficient to prompt a shift in our portfolio positioning, and we continue to maintain a broad diversification across asset classes.

The United Kingdom, Europe, South Korea, and potentially China in the near future: the list of US-negotiated trade deals continues to grow, yet uncertainty persists with several key partners. At the same time, investor focus is shifting back to economic fundamentals, with softer-than-expected US employment data released on Friday triggering a sell-off. Nonetheless, recent tech earnings results reaffirmed the sector’s enduring dominance.

Commercial agreements are fuelling market optimism, reinforcing confidence in a clear path for corporate earnings growth. As the earnings season progresses, 34% of S&P 500 constituents have published their results, with 80% surpassing analysts’ estimates. This week, attention will be focussed on key economic data and potential new trade agreements as the 1 August tariff truce deadline approaches.

US banking giants led the start of the earnings season, with their management expressing confidence about consumer resilience despite economic uncertainty and price pressures, with the latter being confirmed by more solid June US headline inflation data which came in at 2.6% year-on-year. This figure also supported further consolidation of the US dollar, although we expect this to be short-lived. More corporate results are due this week and are likely to play a key role in steering market sentiment.