Investment Outlook 2025
Wondering how to invest in a fragmented economy? Look no further for insight into finding the pockets of resilience next year: UBP’s Investment Outlook 2025 is now under way.
Every autumn our experts unveil their outlook on the economy and the markets for the upcoming year in their Investment Outlook roadshow. This includes a launch webcast, a tour across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, as well as a brochure and podcasts.
Our convictions
Titled "Fragmented Resilience", this year’s Investment Outlook delves into the dynamics of inflation, structural shifts, and geopolitical developments. So far, the global economy has managed to sidestep a recession, demonstrating a remarkable – though uneven – resilience. In this fragmented landscape, our experts shed light on the regions and sectors poised to drive value in 2025.
In this video, dive into UBP’s Investment Outlook 2025 to discover our key convictions for the year ahead.
"Our Investment Outlook 2025 adopts a selective approach in a fragmented investment landscape. Our strength lies in our ability to identify the key opportunities that will shape the year ahead."
Fragmented resilience
The global economy has once again skirted recession for a second consecutive year. Yet, the year ahead may bring additional challenges as growth becomes increasingly fragmented, albeit with certain pockets of resilience.
In the United States, Donald Trump’s return to the White House looks set to deliver a stronger economic boost than anticipated. Outside the US, we expect growth to remain resilient, especially in Asia.
Europe’s economies face another crossroads in their ongoing effort towards a closer union, with elections on the cards. Switzerland, Scandinavia, and the global pharmaceutical sector offer investors exposure to both resilience and innovation.
A resurgence of inflation by late 2025, concern about rising bond yields, and geopolitical tensions are a more prominent feature of today’s landscape. Defence companies are well positioned to benefit from this new environment, while gold remains a vital component of portfolio risk management.
Podcast series
Watch this space for upcoming podcasts with topical contents.
Investment Outlook 2025
Our Corporate Communications Manager Robert Wibberley speaks to six of our experts to explore the economic environment, the key trends, and our main convictions on asset classes.
Our brochure
A brochure covering the global economy, inflation, market developments, currencies, and what we see as the most compelling investment opportunities is available. Download it now and find out about our experts’ convictions.
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Our Investment Outlook experts
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Michaël Lok
Group CIO and Co-CEO Asset Management
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Norman Villamin
Group Chief Strategist
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Nicolas Laroche
Global Head of Advisory & Asset Allocation
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Patrice Gautry
Chief Economist
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Peter Kinsella
Global Head of Forex Strategy
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Dimitri Kallianiotis
Technology Investment Specialist
15.07.2025
Building Bespoke Portfolios with Agility
How UBP is deepening its client-centric investment proposition in Asia?
14.07.2025
UBP Weekly View - Equities steady ahead of earnings season
The fresh salvo of tariffs paused the rally on global equity markets, leaving them broadly stable. Renewed tariff threats are reigniting concerns about global industrial supply chains, generating doubts about whether or not these pressures will erode corporate margins. The upcoming earnings season, which kicks off this week, may offer some hints of an answer.
08.07.2025
UBP Currency Views
The prospect of lower oil prices and possible Fed easing is benign for most G10 currencies.
07.07.2025
UBP Weekly View - Brighter earnings outlook for US equities
Investor sentiment in equities was buoyed last week by the passage of the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’, signs of US economic resilience, and hopes of easing trade tensions. US equities remain our preferred sector for the second half of the year, underpinned by stronger earnings growth expectations, a persistently weaker dollar, and significant exposure to the technology sector.
07.07.2025
UBP House View - July 2025
With summer under way, aligning income generation with long-term growth helps reinforce portfolio resilience. A well-balanced allocation remains essential to navigating the coming months with confidence.
04.07.2025
Navigating the markets in the summer of 2025
Risk appetite for equities holds firm, yet diversification is paramount.
30.06.2025
UBP Weekly View - Risk appetite holds firm
The Israel–Iran ceasefire has eased concerns about energy prices, thus curbing inflation pressures and maintaining the prospect of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this autumn. Investor sentiment remains strong, notably on the technology sector. However, the unpredictability of geopolitical developments, coupled with the looming 90-day tariff-pause deadline, leads us to maintain a broad diversification across asset classes and regions.
23.06.2025
“Like a fine dining restaurant”: UBP serves up private markets strategy
UBP is taking a three-pronged approach to elevate its private market business as the Swiss bank seeks to deliver a high-quality experience in the increasingly competitive alternatives space, where virtually all private banks are now offering access to differentiated private market investments.
23.06.2025
UBP Weekly View - Volatility mounts on Middle East escalation
Despite the escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel, Iran and the US, equity and bond markets are – for now – not pricing in a worst-case scenario. In this context, a diversified allocation is warranted to contain tail risks and mitigate mounting volatility. Gold continues to serve as a hedge against extreme shocks.