Investment Outlook 2025
Wondering how to invest in a fragmented economy? Look no further for insight into finding the pockets of resilience next year: UBP’s Investment Outlook 2025 is now under way.
Every autumn our experts unveil their outlook on the economy and the markets for the upcoming year in their Investment Outlook roadshow. This includes a launch webcast, a tour across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, as well as a brochure and podcasts.
Our convictions
Titled "Fragmented Resilience", this year’s Investment Outlook delves into the dynamics of inflation, structural shifts, and geopolitical developments. So far, the global economy has managed to sidestep a recession, demonstrating a remarkable – though uneven – resilience. In this fragmented landscape, our experts shed light on the regions and sectors poised to drive value in 2025.
In this video, dive into UBP’s Investment Outlook 2025 to discover our key convictions for the year ahead.
"Our Investment Outlook 2025 adopts a selective approach in a fragmented investment landscape. Our strength lies in our ability to identify the key opportunities that will shape the year ahead."
Fragmented resilience
The global economy has once again skirted recession for a second consecutive year. Yet, the year ahead may bring additional challenges as growth becomes increasingly fragmented, albeit with certain pockets of resilience.
In the United States, Donald Trump’s return to the White House looks set to deliver a stronger economic boost than anticipated. Outside the US, we expect growth to remain resilient, especially in Asia.
Europe’s economies face another crossroads in their ongoing effort towards a closer union, with elections on the cards. Switzerland, Scandinavia, and the global pharmaceutical sector offer investors exposure to both resilience and innovation.
A resurgence of inflation by late 2025, concern about rising bond yields, and geopolitical tensions are a more prominent feature of today’s landscape. Defence companies are well positioned to benefit from this new environment, while gold remains a vital component of portfolio risk management.
Podcast series
Watch this space for upcoming podcasts with topical contents.
Investment Outlook 2025
Our Corporate Communications Manager Robert Wibberley speaks to six of our experts to explore the economic environment, the key trends, and our main convictions on asset classes.
Our brochure
A brochure covering the global economy, inflation, market developments, currencies, and what we see as the most compelling investment opportunities is available. Download it now and find out about our experts’ convictions.
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Our Investment Outlook experts
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Michaël Lok
Group CIO and Co-CEO Asset Management
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Norman Villamin
Group Chief Strategist
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Nicolas Laroche
Global Head of Advisory & Asset Allocation
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Patrice Gautry
Chief Economist
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Peter Kinsella
Global Head of Forex Strategy
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Dimitri Kallianiotis
Technology Investment Specialist
23.06.2025
UBP Weekly View - Volatility mounts on Middle East escalation
Despite the escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel, Iran and the US, equity and bond markets are – for now – not pricing in a worst-case scenario. In this context, a diversified allocation is warranted to contain tail risks and mitigate mounting volatility. Gold continues to serve as a hedge against extreme shocks.
23.06.2025
“Like a fine dining restaurant”: UBP serves up private markets strategy
UBP is taking a three-pronged approach to elevate its private market business as the Swiss bank seeks to deliver a high-quality experience in the increasingly competitive alternatives space, where virtually all private banks are now offering access to differentiated private market investments.
20.06.2025
Israel–Iran: the dawn of a new global risk regime?
Israel’s ‘pre-emptive’ strikes against Iran on 13 June represent a meaningful escalation in what had been Israel’s ongoing battle against primarily Iranian proxies. The conflict has now shifted towards a direct confrontation between the two regional powers in the Middle East.
18.06.2025
Is the dollar losing its lustre?
Peter Kinsella, UBP’s Global Head of FX and Commodity Strategy, discussed the outlook for the USD with Andreas Koenig, Amundi’s Head of Currency Management.
16.06.2025
UBP Weekly View - Trade deals in the spotlight
Markets rallied on US–China trade deal progress and soft US inflation data, boosting risk assets and expectations of a Fed rate cut. Yields fell while credit spreads tightened. However, at the end of the week gains faded as Israel–Iran tensions flared up, but this lifted defence stocks. The US dollar weakened, while gold and oil rose on geopolitical tensions.
11.06.2025
De-dollarisation: More heat than light
The US dollar has declined by more than 10% since President Trump took office, driven by policy uncertainty, lower growth expectations, and rising inflation concerns.
10.06.2025
UBP House View - June 2025
As we enter the second half of the year, the fading trade war rhetoric is paving the way for a renewed focus on diversified asset allocations.
06.06.2025
Risk premium: a key to reading markets
The potential of US equities is being tested by the compression of the risk premium.
22.05.2025
US-China Trade Talks: A fragile rapprochement
On 12 May, the United States (US) and China established a temporary ‘trade consultation mechanism’, reducing tariffs by 115% for 90 days. While this may ease tensions, high tariffs are still expected to exert upside pressure on US prices, and trade volatility could drag on economic growth in China.