Investment Outlook 2025
Wondering how to invest in a fragmented economy? Look no further for insight into finding the pockets of resilience next year: UBP’s Investment Outlook 2025 is now under way.
Every autumn our experts unveil their outlook on the economy and the markets for the upcoming year in their Investment Outlook roadshow. This includes a launch webcast, a tour across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, as well as a brochure and podcasts.
Our convictions
Titled "Fragmented Resilience", this year’s Investment Outlook delves into the dynamics of inflation, structural shifts, and geopolitical developments. So far, the global economy has managed to sidestep a recession, demonstrating a remarkable – though uneven – resilience. In this fragmented landscape, our experts shed light on the regions and sectors poised to drive value in 2025.
In this video, dive into UBP’s Investment Outlook 2025 to discover our key convictions for the year ahead.
"Our Investment Outlook 2025 adopts a selective approach in a fragmented investment landscape. Our strength lies in our ability to identify the key opportunities that will shape the year ahead."
Fragmented resilience
The global economy has once again skirted recession for a second consecutive year. Yet, the year ahead may bring additional challenges as growth becomes increasingly fragmented, albeit with certain pockets of resilience.
In the United States, Donald Trump’s return to the White House looks set to deliver a stronger economic boost than anticipated. Outside the US, we expect growth to remain resilient, especially in Asia.
Europe’s economies face another crossroads in their ongoing effort towards a closer union, with elections on the cards. Switzerland, Scandinavia, and the global pharmaceutical sector offer investors exposure to both resilience and innovation.
A resurgence of inflation by late 2025, concern about rising bond yields, and geopolitical tensions are a more prominent feature of today’s landscape. Defence companies are well positioned to benefit from this new environment, while gold remains a vital component of portfolio risk management.
Podcast series
Watch this space for upcoming podcasts with topical contents.
Investment Outlook 2025
Our Corporate Communications Manager Robert Wibberley speaks to six of our experts to explore the economic environment, the key trends, and our main convictions on asset classes.
Our brochure
A brochure covering the global economy, inflation, market developments, currencies, and what we see as the most compelling investment opportunities is available. Download it now and find out about our experts’ convictions.
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Our Investment Outlook experts
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Michaël Lok
Group CIO and Co-CEO Asset Management
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Norman Villamin
Group Chief Strategist
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Nicolas Laroche
Global Head of Advisory & Asset Allocation
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Patrice Gautry
Chief Economist
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Peter Kinsella
Global Head of Forex Strategy
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Dimitri Kallianiotis
Technology Investment Specialist
13.05.2025
UBP House View - May 2025
Equity markets welcomed Trump’s 90-day tariff truce by rebounding swiftly. However, we are maintaining a wait-and-see stance during this pause, while hedging against potential US dollar weakness by increasing our exposure to gold.
05.05.2025
90-day tariff truce: what lies ahead?
On 9 July, President Trump’s 90-day tariff suspension is set to expire. What will this mean for investors?
02.05.2025
Demand for gold continues to rise
Since early November 2024, the gold price has risen from USD 2,600 to highs of above USD 3,500 per ounce. The precious metal received additional support in early February when investors realised that Donald Trump was serious about his tariff programme.
16.04.2025
UBP House View - April 2025
Tactical risk management helped us ride out one of the sharpest market dips since 2020. Gold and cash remain reliable safe havens.
08.04.2025
World growth under tariffs
The tariffs announcement by US President Trump last Wednesday evening exceeded most expectations, raising the average tariff on US imports from 2.5% to 24%, a level not seen since the 1930–40s.
02.04.2025
Technology: providing access to the Chinese market
Supported by innovation and the government, technology is the only Chinese sector offering great visibility.
26.03.2025
The Dollar and the Donald
Observers and investors were expecting the US dollar to go up in value. This was without counting on the new US administration’s erratic policymaking and announcements on tariffs. Where is it going next and what other factors are affecting the greenback?
19.03.2025
Europe: rewriting its future
The US–Europe relations prevailing since World War II are shifting.
13.03.2025
UBP House View - March 2025
Trump’s activism on the US economy is creating fears of recession. To navigate short-term turbulence, we have tactically scaled back our exposure to macro-sensitive assets, such as US equities, including US midcaps, along with high-yield and emerging-market debt, while increasing our allocation to gold.