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Despite Nvidia’s stronger-than-expected results and upbeat guidance, investor sentiment remained fragile. A mixture of fatigue and doubts about AI, shifting expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December, and a rise in long-term Japanese yields fuelled sharp swings across equity markets. This week, investors will closely monitor the continuing Russia–Ukraine discussions for signs of an end to the conflict.

Doubts over a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and concerns over the scale and timing of AI-related capex weighed on sentiment, underscoring the fragile market landscape. Now that the US government’s 43-day shutdown has ended, investors are awaiting the delayed September non-farm payrolls report this week. The publication of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s meeting and Nvidia’s earning report, both on Wednesday, will be also closely scrutinised.

Many baby boomers have entered the decumulation phase of their financial lives and for them, the priority has shifted from capital appreciation to income stability. Accordingly, diversification and carry (income from coupons) are paramount. Investors value the stable yields bonds provide, especially when they come with managed volatility, and emerging-market debt (EMD) is an excellent source of diversification.

In the US, stronger corporate investment, resilient household spending, and the prospect of monetary easing led us to upgrade our outlook on US growth for 2026. This improved economic momentum reinforces our high-yield bond conviction of 4/5 and reaffirms our positive stance on US equities of 4/5.

Scepticism and fatigue surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), coupled with the ongoing US government shutdown and mounting concerns about the labour market, weighed on investor sentiment. The global technology sector declined, despite a steady stream of upbeat news related to AI. As the earnings season draws to a close, markets are now looking for supportive macroeconomic signals to restore confidence.

Ten years on from the Paris Agreement, COP30 is being held at an extremely pivotal moment for climate change action, the global community, and the Earth itself. The COP30 President, Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago, has called for the accelerated implementation of the Paris Agreement at this critical time, hoping that COP30 will be a summit of solutions. As is tradition at UBP, we have put together our own wish list for what we hope can be achieved at this year’s COP summit.