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较高收益板块尤其适合当前经济增长强健、债券收益率和通胀率均较高的环境。
“通胀大概还没有远去，若投资者预期利率能够回到疫前的水平便要提高警觉。”
美国经济继续以其潜力或较高的速度扩张，而2024年的降息行动可望对今年的实体经济产生积极的作用，因此美联储未必需要过度进取地宽松货币政策。由于通胀和财政支出维持在高水平，反映货币政策不松不紧的中性短期利率可能比原先预期的高。
与此同时，尽管欧洲经济增长偏软，但仍然远超衰退的门槛，欧元区周边成员国现已成为推动增长的主力。这趋势应能支持欧洲央行进一步宽松货币政策。
总的来说，主要央行偏向从宽的态度，可望减缓经济下行的风险，并增加经济软着陆的机会。
通胀方面，以目前的趋势来看难望回到疫前的水平，而主要央行对于通胀较高的状况已经较为包容。
利率将在区间涨跌
经济有望软着陆，加以政府采取支持性的财政政策，已经减低主要央行进取地降息的需要。
通胀维持在较高水平
经济强健增长将妨碍通胀率回到疫前的水平。
固定收益展现吸引力
较高收益板块既带来利差机会，也可以缓冲波动性。
基于经济增长有力而通胀率继续超过目标，预期降息周期只会有限度地推展，这环境将有利于较高收益的信用债和利差资产，并支持投资组合采取杠铃（barbell）布局，通过同时投资于短期优质信用债和高收益资产类别，从而发挥互补优势的作用。
当前的投资目标是维持投资概况与5年期投资级普通企业债券相若，并锁定较高收益。运用杠铃操作，投资者善用短期优质信用债以提高投资防御性和收益，再搭配较高收益的资产，以在不牺牲流动性之下，带来理想的利差收益。
请参阅瑞联银行最新发表题为《在新通胀和利率格局中的全球固定收益机会》（‘Global fixed income in the new inflation and interest rate regime’）的白皮书（仅提供英文版），以了解我们的固定收益团队对债券之展望，以及投资者可以如何构建投资组合以应对当前的格局。
请勾选订阅以下至少一项的瑞联银行专家通讯，以下载固定收益白皮书：
基金经理所表达的看法和见解，可能有别于瑞联银行机构观点。在此处展示只作参考用途，并不构成投资意见或建议。
全球及绝对回报固定收益团队由Philippe Gräub领导，云集经验广泛和知识深厚的成员，专精于在各固定收益类别板块中，获取理想的经风险调整回报。
概要和数据
21.10.2025
Despite headlines of fiscal risks and political unrest, Colombia, Chile, and Peru are defying expectations with their appreciating currencies, credible policies, and strong economic fundamentals.
23.09.2025
Just as tectonic plate movements can trigger earthquakes and reshape landscapes, financial tectonics shifts are being driven by three forces that are compelling investors to rethink their approach to bond markets: the fragmentation of the global economy, fiscal indiscipline, and the tsunami of passive investing.
27.03.2025
With inflation and interest rates pushing up rather than down and fast-changing policies and scenarios in the US, UBP’s fixed-income experts explore how investors can put together a flexible and resilient bond portfolio in an approach favouring the long term.
18.02.2025
The year started with volatility in rates, as the 10-year Treasury yield oscillates amid shifting market dynamics.
17.12.2024
In this podcast, our expert Mohammed Kazmi, Senior Portfolio Manager & Chief Strategist for Fixed Income, shares insights into the anticipated landscape for interest rates and credit markets in 2025.
24.09.2024
The positive view towards fixed income is best expressed through the higher-income segments of the market given robust nominal GDP growth and elevated all-in yields that are still in excess of the historical returns of global equities.
