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Oil’s surge past USD 100 a barrel amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East drove a broad sell-off in government bonds and equities last week, as inflation fears pushed yields sharply higher across the US, eurozone and UK.

US President Trump’s approval rating is among the lowest for a sitting president in post-World War II US history and leaves an 80% probability that the US House of Representatives will shift to Democratic control, with US Senate facing a 50:50 chance of switching to Democratic control.

Our outlook for risk assets remains constructive, supported by broadening earnings growth, though tempered by persistent inflation and an oil market showing little sign of easing. Against this backdrop, we are raising our target range for US 10-year yields to 4.25–4.75%, with rising yields and oil prices standing out as the principal risks to our central scenario.

Strong jobs data reignited inflation concerns and increased rate-hike odds, as escalating US-Iran tensions pushed Treasury, Bund, and gilt yields higher, though September Fed odds held steady at 60%.

Ahmad Chahidi, senior wealth planner at Union Bancaire Privée (UBP) Middle East, shares how conversations with families have changed, why liquidity has become a form of strategic protection and the coming generational wealth transfer across the GCC.