1. Newsroom
  2. Italy – Back in the firing line
Menu
Insight 23.04.2020

Italy – Back in the firing line

Italy – Back in the firing line

Our Global Head of Forex Strategy, Peter Kinsella, discusses how Italian bond yield increases are going to affect the euro.



This week the Eurogroup will meet to try to find a solution to financing COVID-19-related health and income support measures for the most badly affected EU nations. Italy, in particular, has forcefully argued for the costs to be borne by the whole of the EU. This has, however, been rejected by northern European countries, who fear that it will lead to a mutualisation of eurozone debt. We anticipate that the Eurogroup will either increase the European Stability Mechanism’s (ESM) borrowing capacity or seek to leverage the European Commission’s future budget revenues. These measures may bring some relief to markets in the short term, however, when the crisis passes, Italy could easily run a debt-to-GDP profile of around 160%.

Consequently, we believe that recent Italian yield increases will be sustained over the medium term, because investors will demand higher risk premia for holding Italian debt. The ECB has allocated around 40% of its recent asset purchases to Italian debt, which is far in excess of the Italian share of the ECB’s capital key. In the absence of ECB purchases, Italian yields would be substantially higher.

When the global recovery emerges in the third quarter, we believe that investors will pay closer attention to eurozone yield developments and this may present material risks for EUR exchange rates.

Our expertise

Peter_Kinsella_150x150.jpg
Peter Kinsella
Global Head of Forex Strategy

Convertible Bonds

Convertible bonds add convexity to your portfolio

Find out why convexity works in the short-to-long term

Watch the videos

Most read

Insight 19.02.2020

Changes in consumption patterns

Despite being fast-moving and quite unpredictable, changes in consumption patterns are expected to reshape the economic landscape.

Insight 15.04.2020

The Case For Frontier Debt

Fixed-income frontier markets have seen significant growth in both importance and liquidity over the past decade. While still mainly thought of as part of global EM investments, frontier markets have “grown up” and deserve to be considered separately.

Insight 22.04.2020

Impact Report 2019: an eventful year

UBP is proud to release the second edition of its Impact Report.

Further reading

Insight 20.05.2020

Why choose impact in emerging markets?

UBP’s expert Mathieu Nègre explains why impact investing in listed emerging equities is a significant investing opportunity for at least two reasons.

Insight 18.05.2020

COVID-19: UBP keeps you up to date

This web page is dedicated to keeping you up-to-date in real time with our Business Continuity Plan and our latest market views in relation to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Insight 18.05.2020

Clouds gathering on the horizon

Spotlight - We see three key risks on the horizon: secondary outbreaks in the US, rising US-China geopolitical tension and political fragmentation in the Euro area