Perspetivas de mercado

Eurozone: Retail sales (March): 0.8% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.5%)

• Sales were mainly driven by fuels and food while purchases of non-food products were flat over the month after 0.3% m/m the prior month.
• Sales were also driven by the rebound seen in France and Germany while monthly results continued to diverge in other countries.

Germany: Factory orders (March): -0.4% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.8% revised from 0.2%)

• Orders remained depressed and prior month data were strongly revised down.
• Orders have contracted for domestic demand (-3.6% m/m after 1.0% m/m) but were up from eurozone countries (2% m/m after -2.2% m/m).
• The rebound in foreign orders was mainly concentrated in capital goods.
• Despite improving confidence, the industrial situation remained fragile.

Germany: Trade Balance (March): 22.3bn EUR vs 22.4bn expected (prior: 21.4bn)

• Trade surplus has increased thanks to a rebound, even modest, in exports (up by 0.9% m/m after -1.6% m/m); imports were up by 0.3% m/m after 3% m/m the prior month.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (April): 2.3% as expected (prior: 2.3%)

• Unemployed has decreased but the unemployment ratio in seasonally terms remained unchanged.

Eurozone: PMI Services (April): 53.3 vs 52.9 expected (prior: 51.5)

• Final data were higher than initially estimated; at global level, sentiment has increased further on activity, new business, and employment; pressures on costs remained on the rise, but with only marginal pressures from input costs.
• By country, the momentum has diverged: a rebound in sentiment in France and Germany over the month, with index now in both countries well above the 50 level; In Italy, the index has eased from 54.6 the prior month to 54.3, while it has only marginally increased in Spain (from 56.1 to 56.2).

Eurozone: PPI (March): -0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -1%)

• Prices have fallen again, down by 1.8% m/m after -3.6% m/m the prior month; prices in other sectors were up modestly by 0.1%m/, except for non-durable goods prices up by 0.4% m/m.
• The yearly trend has re-accelerated from -8.5% y/y prior month to -7.8% y/y.

US: Non-farm payrolls (Apr): 175k vs 240k expected (prior: 315k revised from 303k)

• The most recent data highlights a significant deceleration compared to the robust pace seen in the first quarter, failing to meet the average monthly job gain of 242k over the past year.
• Job growth was primarily seen in sectors like Education & Health Services, which added 95k jobs (vs. 88k prior), and Trade, Transportation & Utilities, which added 52k jobs. Conversely, Construction only saw an increase of 9k jobs (down from 40k previously), and Leisure & Hospitality added just 5k jobs (vs. 53k prior).
• Unexpectedly, the unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9%, contrary to expectations of stability.
• Average weekly earnings also experienced a slight slowdown, increasing by 0.2% (vs. 0.3% prior), below the anticipated 0.3% rise. Additionally, on a yearly basis, earnings decelerated more than expected, dropping from 4.1% to 3.9%.
• Overall, this indicates that there is a degree of cooling underway in the labor market.

US: Unemployment rate (Apr): 3.9% vs 3.8% expected (prior: 3.8%)

US: Average hourly earnings (Apr): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

US: Services PMI (Apr F): 51.3 vs 51 expected (prior: 51.7)

• The final version of S&P services PMI was revised up from 50.9 to 51.3, depicting a less severe decrease.

US: ISM Services (Apr): 49.4 vs 52.0 expected (prior: 51.4)

• PMI sharply declined to 49.4 from 51.4 in the previous month, marking the first contraction in service sector activity since December 2022.
• The drop in PMI is suggesting that the impact of higher borrowing costs on business conditions might be more pronounced than previously thought.
• New orders saw a slower rate of increase (52.2 vs. 54.4 prior), while output experienced a significant softening (50.9 compared to 57.4), leading firms to accelerate the pace of job shedding (45.9 vs. 48.5 prior), marking the third consecutive period of declining employment.
• Furthermore, Prices Paid increased significantly, indicating persistent challenges with input costs (59.2 compared to 53.4 previously).

France: Industrial production (Mar): -0.3% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• France's industrial production fell by 0.3% compared to the previous month, contrary to expectations of a 0.3% gain. Declines in food products & beverages (-0.4% vs. 1.3%) and coke & refined petroleum products (-4.6% vs. 8.6%) were the main drivers, while mining & quarrying, energy, water supply & waste management (0.7% vs. -3.8%) and construction (1.1% vs. -2.1%) saw output increases.
• On a yearly basis, industrial production grew by 0.7%, recovering from a 0.6% decline the month before.

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Mar): 6.5% as expected (prior: 6.5%)

• The unemployment rate in the eurozone stood at a record low of 6.5% in March, the same as in the previous three months and in line with market expectations.
• Across the major eurozone economies, Spain continues to report the highest jobless rate at 11.7%, followed by France at 7.3% and Italy at 7.2% after it unexpectedly dropped from a downwardly revised 7.4% in the previous month. Conversely, Germany recorded the lowest rate at 3.2%.

UK: PMI Services (Apr F): 55.0 vs 54.9 expected (prior: 53.1)

• The final S&P Global UK Services PMI jumped to 55 (vs. 54.9) in April from 53.1 in the earlier month, pointing to the sixth consecutive period of expansion.
• Composites PMI was also revised up slightly to 54.1 from 54.0.

US: Initial jobless claims (April 27): 208k vs 211k expected (prior: 208k revised from 207k)

• Continuing claims: 1774 k unchanged from the prior week.

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q1-24): 0.3% q/q vs 0.5% expected (prior: 3.5% revised from 3.3%)

• Productivity gains have decreased in Q1 after strong numbers in Q4-23.
• Activity was up by 1.3% q/q (3.8% in Q4), while compensation has increased further by 5% q/q (3.5% in T4) and hours worked also increased by 1%.
• As a result, unit labor costs have surged by 4.7% q/q after 0% in Q4-23.

US: Trade balance (March): -69.4 bn USD vs -69.8 bn expected (prior: -69.5 bn revised from -68.9 bn)

• Trade deficit remained quite stable over the month as both exports and imports have contracted close to 2% m/m over the month.

US: Factory orders (March): 1.6% m/m as expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 1.4%)

• Orders for capital good nondefense ex aircraft were up by 0.1% m/m after 0.4% m/m the prior month.
• Total orders were boosted by defense and aircraft orders over the month.
• Shipments were up by 0.3% m/m after 1.4% m/m and inventories were flat after 0.2% m/m the prior month.

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (April): 45.7 vs 45.6 expected (prior: 46.1)

• Final data confirmed the decrease in confidence over the month, as new orders have weakened again.
• Performances by country have diverged further; confidence index in Spain has accelerated (from 51.4 prior month to 52.2) thanks to rising new orders. In Germany, confidence has moderately improved (from 41.9 to 42.5) but remained depressed.
• Index has weakened in Italy (from 50.4 to 47.3) and in France (from 46.2 to 45.3). The recovery in industry remains fragile.

Italy: PPI (March): -0.4% m/m (prior: -1.5%)

• Energy prices have continued to fall (-1.3% m/m after -3.9% m/m the prior month) but prices of consumer durable goods have accelerated for the second month (up by 0.9% m/m after 1.1% the prior month).
• Yearly trend has regained from -14.2 % y/y the prior month to -12.7% y/y.

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (April): 45.9 vs 47.9 expected (prior: 48)

• Business confidence has decreased more than expected, due to falling new orders.

Norway: PMI (April): 52.4 (prior: 50.7 revised from 50.8)

• Business sentiment has rebounded despite weakening new orders.

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (April): 51.4 (prior: 50.4 revised from 50)

• Sentiment has rebounded thanks to rising new orders, exports, and employment while opinions on production have slightly decreased.

Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (April): 41.4 vs 45.2 expected (prior: 45.2)

• Index has weakened over the moth; several major components have seen their sentiment decreasing: orders, production, and employment.
• This index came on the opposite of the small improvement seen in the KOF index.
• Separately, PMI services has increased from 47.6 to 55.6 due to a rebound in orders and employment.

Switzerland: CPI (April): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0% revised from 0.1%)

• Prices were higher than expected over the month.
• Oil prices have regained (2.4% m/m), but also clothes (0.9% m/m), household goods-furniture (2.2% m/m) and leisure (1.4% m/m) sectors; services were just up by 0.1% m/m as the prior month.
• Core inflation was up by 0.5% m/m after 0.1% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has re-accelerated from 1.0% y/y the prior month to 1.4% y/y and core inflation from 1.3% y/y to 1.5% y/y.

Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (April): 55.9 (prior: 53.6)

• Business sentiment on production and orders has increased further.

Brazil: Current account (March): -4579 M$ vs -3050 M$ expected (prior: -4513 M$ revised from -4373 M$)

• Current account deficit has increased over the month, but foreign direct investment has strongly increased from USD 5012 M to USD 9591 M.