市场洞察

Eurozone: PMI Services (April): 53.3 vs 52.9 expected (prior: 51.5)

• Final data were higher than initially estimated; at global level, sentiment has increased further on activity, new business, and employment; pressures on costs remained on the rise, but with only marginal pressures from input costs.
• By country, the momentum has diverged: a rebound in sentiment in France and Germany over the month, with index now in both countries well above the 50 level; In Italy, the index has eased from 54.6 the prior month to 54.3, while it has only marginally increased in Spain (from 56.1 to 56.2).

Eurozone: PPI (March): -0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -1%)

• Prices have fallen again, down by 1.8% m/m after -3.6% m/m the prior month; prices in other sectors were up modestly by 0.1%m/, except for non-durable goods prices up by 0.4% m/m.
• The yearly trend has re-accelerated from -8.5% y/y prior month to -7.8% y/y.

US: Non-farm payrolls (Apr): 175k vs 240k expected (prior: 315k revised from 303k)

• The most recent data highlights a significant deceleration compared to the robust pace seen in the first quarter, failing to meet the average monthly job gain of 242k over the past year.
• Job growth was primarily seen in sectors like Education & Health Services, which added 95k jobs (vs. 88k prior), and Trade, Transportation & Utilities, which added 52k jobs. Conversely, Construction only saw an increase of 9k jobs (down from 40k previously), and Leisure & Hospitality added just 5k jobs (vs. 53k prior).
• Unexpectedly, the unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9%, contrary to expectations of stability.
• Average weekly earnings also experienced a slight slowdown, increasing by 0.2% (vs. 0.3% prior), below the anticipated 0.3% rise. Additionally, on a yearly basis, earnings decelerated more than expected, dropping from 4.1% to 3.9%.
• Overall, this indicates that there is a degree of cooling underway in the labor market.

US: Unemployment rate (Apr): 3.9% vs 3.8% expected (prior: 3.8%)

US: Average hourly earnings (Apr): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

US: Services PMI (Apr F): 51.3 vs 51 expected (prior: 51.7)

• The final version of S&P services PMI was revised up from 50.9 to 51.3, depicting a less severe decrease.

US: ISM Services (Apr): 49.4 vs 52.0 expected (prior: 51.4)

• PMI sharply declined to 49.4 from 51.4 in the previous month, marking the first contraction in service sector activity since December 2022.
• The drop in PMI is suggesting that the impact of higher borrowing costs on business conditions might be more pronounced than previously thought.
• New orders saw a slower rate of increase (52.2 vs. 54.4 prior), while output experienced a significant softening (50.9 compared to 57.4), leading firms to accelerate the pace of job shedding (45.9 vs. 48.5 prior), marking the third consecutive period of declining employment.
• Furthermore, Prices Paid increased significantly, indicating persistent challenges with input costs (59.2 compared to 53.4 previously).

France: Industrial production (Mar): -0.3% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• France's industrial production fell by 0.3% compared to the previous month, contrary to expectations of a 0.3% gain. Declines in food products & beverages (-0.4% vs. 1.3%) and coke & refined petroleum products (-4.6% vs. 8.6%) were the main drivers, while mining & quarrying, energy, water supply & waste management (0.7% vs. -3.8%) and construction (1.1% vs. -2.1%) saw output increases.
• On a yearly basis, industrial production grew by 0.7%, recovering from a 0.6% decline the month before.

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Mar): 6.5% as expected (prior: 6.5%)

• The unemployment rate in the eurozone stood at a record low of 6.5% in March, the same as in the previous three months and in line with market expectations.
• Across the major eurozone economies, Spain continues to report the highest jobless rate at 11.7%, followed by France at 7.3% and Italy at 7.2% after it unexpectedly dropped from a downwardly revised 7.4% in the previous month. Conversely, Germany recorded the lowest rate at 3.2%.

UK: PMI Services (Apr F): 55.0 vs 54.9 expected (prior: 53.1)

• The final S&P Global UK Services PMI jumped to 55 (vs. 54.9) in April from 53.1 in the earlier month, pointing to the sixth consecutive period of expansion.
• Composites PMI was also revised up slightly to 54.1 from 54.0.

US: Initial jobless claims (April 27): 208k vs 211k expected (prior: 208k revised from 207k)

• Continuing claims: 1774 k unchanged from the prior week.

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q1-24): 0.3% q/q vs 0.5% expected (prior: 3.5% revised from 3.3%)

• Productivity gains have decreased in Q1 after strong numbers in Q4-23.
• Activity was up by 1.3% q/q (3.8% in Q4), while compensation has increased further by 5% q/q (3.5% in T4) and hours worked also increased by 1%.
• As a result, unit labor costs have surged by 4.7% q/q after 0% in Q4-23.

US: Trade balance (March): -69.4 bn USD vs -69.8 bn expected (prior: -69.5 bn revised from -68.9 bn)

• Trade deficit remained quite stable over the month as both exports and imports have contracted close to 2% m/m over the month.

US: Factory orders (March): 1.6% m/m as expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 1.4%)

• Orders for capital good nondefense ex aircraft were up by 0.1% m/m after 0.4% m/m the prior month.
• Total orders were boosted by defense and aircraft orders over the month.
• Shipments were up by 0.3% m/m after 1.4% m/m and inventories were flat after 0.2% m/m the prior month.

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (April): 45.7 vs 45.6 expected (prior: 46.1)

• Final data confirmed the decrease in confidence over the month, as new orders have weakened again.
• Performances by country have diverged further; confidence index in Spain has accelerated (from 51.4 prior month to 52.2) thanks to rising new orders. In Germany, confidence has moderately improved (from 41.9 to 42.5) but remained depressed.
• Index has weakened in Italy (from 50.4 to 47.3) and in France (from 46.2 to 45.3). The recovery in industry remains fragile.

Italy: PPI (March): -0.4% m/m (prior: -1.5%)

• Energy prices have continued to fall (-1.3% m/m after -3.9% m/m the prior month) but prices of consumer durable goods have accelerated for the second month (up by 0.9% m/m after 1.1% the prior month).
• Yearly trend has regained from -14.2 % y/y the prior month to -12.7% y/y.

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (April): 45.9 vs 47.9 expected (prior: 48)

• Business confidence has decreased more than expected, due to falling new orders.

Norway: PMI (April): 52.4 (prior: 50.7 revised from 50.8)

• Business sentiment has rebounded despite weakening new orders.

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (April): 51.4 (prior: 50.4 revised from 50)

• Sentiment has rebounded thanks to rising new orders, exports, and employment while opinions on production have slightly decreased.

Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (April): 41.4 vs 45.2 expected (prior: 45.2)

• Index has weakened over the moth; several major components have seen their sentiment decreasing: orders, production, and employment.
• This index came on the opposite of the small improvement seen in the KOF index.
• Separately, PMI services has increased from 47.6 to 55.6 due to a rebound in orders and employment.

Switzerland: CPI (April): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0% revised from 0.1%)

• Prices were higher than expected over the month.
• Oil prices have regained (2.4% m/m), but also clothes (0.9% m/m), household goods-furniture (2.2% m/m) and leisure (1.4% m/m) sectors; services were just up by 0.1% m/m as the prior month.
• Core inflation was up by 0.5% m/m after 0.1% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has re-accelerated from 1.0% y/y the prior month to 1.4% y/y and core inflation from 1.3% y/y to 1.5% y/y.

Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (April): 55.9 (prior: 53.6)

• Business sentiment on production and orders has increased further.

Brazil: Current account (March): -4579 M$ vs -3050 M$ expected (prior: -4513 M$ revised from -4373 M$)

• Current account deficit has increased over the month, but foreign direct investment has strongly increased from USD 5012 M to USD 9591 M.

US: ADP Employment change (April): 192k vs 183k expected (prior: 208k revised from 184k)

• Prior month data were revised higher and the month under review offered modest decrease in jobs creations.
• Creations remained sustained in all categories of firms (from small to large firms); services have shown 145 k new jobs and 47 k in the manufacturing sector.

US: Manufacturing PMI (April): 50 vs 49.9 expected (prior: 51.9)

• Final data have pointed towards more modest decline in business sentiment than estimated and the index remained at 50.
• New orders have decreased on more cautious demand, but production and exports remained positive as well as employment.
• Costs were on the rise (raw material prices) but final prices have increased moderately.

US: Construction spending (March): -0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0% revised from -0.3%)

• Construction has decreased over the month driven by large contraction in private residential construction; public construction remained positive.

US: JOLTS Job Openings (March): 8488k vs 8680k expected (prior: 8813k revised from 8756k)

• Jobs openings have decreased notably for business services and health care from the prior month; they remained sustained for leisure-hospitality and also for government sector.
• Hirings, separations and quitters have decreased over the month. The quite-rate ratio has slightly decreased from 2.2 to 2.1.
• These data pointed towards lower demand and also slower rotation of jobs.

US: ISM Manufacturing (April): 49.2 vs 50 expected (prior: 50.3)

• Business sentiment has decreased on production (index still above 50), new orders, export orders, and backlogs of orders. All index, except production, were below the 50 level. Sentiment on employment was slightly more positive than prior month but index remained below 50.
• Prices paid have surged (index from 55.8 to 60.9) due to rising costs and raw materials.

UK: PMI Manufacturing (April): 49.1 vs 48.7 expected (prior: 50.3)

• Final data have shown more limited decline in business confidence over the month than estimated.
• Sentiment has declined on production, new orders, exports, and employment.
• High inventories, weak demand from outside and ongoing disruption in Red Sea have weighed down on confidence.
• The consumer sector has offered a more positive confidence.
• Costs and prices remained on the rise.

UK: Nationwide house prices (April): -0.4% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Prices have corrected over the month due to rising bond yields and mortgage rates. Yearly trend remained positive, up by 0.6% y/y (1.6% y/y the prior month).