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Monthly Investment Outlook

Monthly Investment Outlook

We publish a Monthly Investment Outlook that highlights our convictions on equities and bonds, as well as recent asset allocation changes.


Summary

  • MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - Rebuilding USD and duration exposure going into year-end
  • GLOBAL TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION - Adding resilience into portfolios
  • UBP ECONOMIC OUTLOOK -  Prospects of slower growth and high inflation
  • UBP ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - Stagflation fears
  • GLOBAL BONDS - Opportunities to rebuild long duration positions
  • GLOBAL EQUITIES - Resilient corporate margins
  • RECENT CHANGES - Increasing long duration government bonds and USD

  • Global equities resumed their rally in October following their September pause as global bonds saw interest rate headwinds return with both US Treasury and German Bund yields hitting levels not seen since early 2019.
  • Facing energy and inflation shocks, global activity is expected to moderate in the coming quarters.
  • Global expansion should continue but at moderate pace; the 2022 outlook has been revised down for US, China and eurozone with renewed headwinds.
  • Global growth is slowing down, and inflation is climbing due to the energy shock. At the same time, central banks are removing their stimulus and the prospect of rate hikes is increasing. Fears of stagflation have increased pointing to a “mediocre” growth trend and persistent high inflation risk.
  • The strong rise in energy and raw material prices coupled with firmer global demand have continued to push inflation upwards. Central banks now see the “transitory” inflation surge lasting longer than previously expected. These pressures have been priced in by bond markets, through rising yields and mostly by the strong rise in breakeven inflation rates in the US and the eurozone.
  • Helped by a reassuring start to reporting season, equities rebounded from their losses witnessed in September. Solid corporate results have indeed alleviated concerns that the slowing global economy combined with input price inflation and supply chain issues would prove to be a serious headwind to profits.
  • As expected, global equity markets rebounded strongly from their September correction on the back of a reassuring corporate reporting season so far with strong earnings and resilient margins.
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