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投资专长

每月投资展望

每月投资展望

我们发布了一份聚焦我们对于股票和债券市场的投资信念和近期资产配置调整的《每月投资展望》报告。


Summary

  • MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - Growing risks on the horizon
  • GLOBAL TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION - Stay sheltered in alternative strategies
  • UBP ECONOMIC OUTLOOK -  Major downside risk on activity next quarters
  • UBP ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - China: Headwinds mount amid extended lockdown and limited monetary support
  • GLOBAL BONDS - Preference for alternative strategies
  • GLOBAL EQUITIES - Valuation and earnings risks warrant a cautious stance
  • RECENT CHANGES - Risk management is paramount in markets with low visibility
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  • April saw the coordinated bond and equity sell-off continue as the ECB joined the increasingly hawkish tone out of the Fed and added to heightening growth concerns in the month.
  • Indeed, this shifting in the growth-inflation balance is highlighted by the IMF’s recent forecasts with global growth now expected to reach only 3.6% while inflation is expected to hit 5.7% in 2022 following its second change in forecasts in 2022.
  • Rising long-term inflation expectations increasingly appear to be a concern for the US Fed as a series of 50 bps rate hikes is now on the table starting in the spring as the US central bank seeks to move more aggressively from its currently easy policy settings to outright tight as quickly as possible.
  • With US 10-year yields having reached the upper end of our 2.5-3.0% target range in April, elevated long-term inflation expectations suggest that a move to 3.0- 3.5% is needed moving into the summer to reset inflation-adjusted interest rates across the yield curve back into positive territory and align with Fed hawkish policy settings.
  • As a result, we have increased fixed income hedge fund allocations to shield investors further from not only the expected additional rise in long-term yields but also, we anticipate, a pick up in credit spread volatility as the prospect of a slowdown in economic growth is better priced in moving into 2H2022.
  • Earnings remain a tailwind for US and European equities moving through the current reporting season in progress. However, should risks to economic growth continue to build in the spring and through the summer months, 2H2022 and 2023 earnings expectations may face growing headwinds.
  • Moreover, as we exit earnings season and the next stage in the Fed tightening cycle takes hold starting in mid-May, an upcoming leg to the rising yield backdrop that has plagued the asset class so far in 2022 may once again move to the forefront of investor attention.
  • On the FX front, though US dollar strength year-to-date has been unrelenting, we expect it will require signs that non-US, global central banks will take up the mantle of tightening at a faster pace than expected in the US to reverse the current trend. Without this, further US dollar strength and global instability that usually accompanies it may emerge moving into the summer.
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