US: ADP Employment change (June): 2369k vs 2900k expected (prior: 3065k revised from -2760k)
- Job creations were below expectations, while past month data were strongly revised up.
- Trend was driven by resuming activity in services, with a rebound in jobs in leisure, health and trade/transport sectors. Creations were also sustained over the past two months in the construction sector.
US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (June): 49.8 vs 49.6 expected (prior: 39.8)
- Final index is better than expected and just below the 50 level. Sentiment on new orders and production has improved from past month.
US: ISM Manufacturing (June): 52.6 vs 49.8 expected (prior: 43.1)
- A strong rebound of sentiment on production and new orders; the two related indices were back above 50 (57.3 and 56.4 respectively), reflecting the effects of the end of the lockdown.
- Sentiment on other components and particularly on exports, backlog of orders and employment have all improved from the prior month, but indices remained well below 50.
- Activity is on a recovery trend at the end of Q2, paving the way to a return to growth if new COVID cases in some states do not oblige to renewed lockdown.
US: Construction spending (May): -2.1% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: -3.5% revised from -2.9%)
- During the lockdown, activity has declined in construction.
Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (June): 47.4 vs 46.9 expected (prior: 39.4)
- Final business sentiment was more positive than initially estimated and has significantly and rapidly rebounded from depressed levels.
- Sentiment has rebounded in all major countries: the index has passed above 50 in France (52.3), and the rebound was strong in Germany (from 36.6 to 45.2) and in Spain (from 38.3 to 49). Sentiment in Italy was slightly lower than expected and the rebound from the prior month was limited.
- Sentiment on production (notably for consumer goods) and orders was less depressed than past months, while export orders remained weak.
- A regaining momentum in industry is under way entering Q3.
Germany: Retail sales (May): 13.9% m/m vs 3.5% expected (prior: -6.5% revised from -5.3%)
- A strong rebound in all sectors (particularly for clothes, IT goods and furniture) after sharp decline the prior month.
Germany: Unemployment rate (June): 6.4% vs 6.5% expected (prior: 6.3%)
- Unemployed has increased by 69 k (120 k expected after 237 k the prior month).
- Unemployment has moderated from the prior month, but the trend is still rising even at slower pace.
Poland: PMI Manufacturing (June): 47.2 vs 46.1 expected (prior: 40.6)
- With progressive end of the lockdown, the sentiment on production and orders has strongly rebounded.
UK: Nationwide house prices (June): -1.4% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: -1.7%)
- Yearly trend was negative: -0.1% y/y after 1.8% y/y the prior month.
UK: PMI Manufacturing (June): 50.1 as expected (prior: 40.7)
- While sentiment remained depressed on exports, it has rebounded to growth territory on production.
Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (June): 41.9 vs 48 expected (prior: 42.1)
- Sentiment has slightly increased on production and orders but eased on supply delivery.
Russia: PMI Manufacturing (June): 49.4 vs 45 expected (prior: 36.2)
- A rebuilding momentum in production and orders.
Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (June): 53.9 (prior: 40.9)
- Sentiment on new orders has strongly rebounded and the index has passed above 50 (at 53.2).