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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Date
Title
Teaser
jeudi 12 juillet
US inflation: moderate monthly change but still rising trend

US: CPI (June): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Prices of energy, computers and apparels have declined over the month; services were up by 0.1% m/m but rents stayed on a stable rise (0.3% m/m) and medical prices have increased further. Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m as expected.
  • Yearly trend has slightly increased at 2.9% y/y (headline) and 2.3% y/y (core), being up by one tenth from the prior month.
  • Some pressures on prices could result from the rise on tariffs on specific items decided recently; nevertheless, the US inflation is expected to moderate at year end, providing no further external shocks from oil or tariffs.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (July 7): 214k vs 225k expected (prior: 232k revised from 231k)

  • Continuing claims: 1739 k after 1742 k past week.

 

UK: RICS house price balance (June): 2% vs -4% expected (prior: -2% revised from -3%)

  • Balance of opinions on prices has improved on future sales.

 

Sweden: CPI (June): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Inflation has accelerated from 1.9% y/y to 2.1% y/y; core inflation stayed on a 0.3% m/m and yearly trend has increased from 2.1% y/y to 2.2% y/y.

 

Eurozone: Industrial production (May): 1.3% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: -0.8% revised from -0.9%)

  • Production in consumer and intermediary goods has reversed after the fall seen in April; trend is back above 2% y/y (2.4% y/y).

 

France: CPI (June): 0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Final estimate was lower than expected; monthly change was flat due to declining prices of fresh food; yearly trend was up by 2.3% y/y.

 

Germany: CPI (June): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Final inflation has confirmed some moderation on monthly changes; inflation remained above 2% on yearly comparison.

 

Brazil: Retail sales (May): -0.6% m/m vs -0.8% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 1%)

  • Except food, sales have deteriorated on all sectors over the month, but slightly less than expected.
  • Negative data could result from strikes in May.
mercredi 11 juillet
US: rising headline and core PPI

US: PPI (June): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Energy, services (transport) and core goods were firmer than prior month, while food prices declined. Core PPI was up by 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% m/m expected.
  • PPIs stayed on a rising trend, up from 3.1% y/y in May to 3.4% yy in June. Core PPIs were up from 2.6% y/y to 2.7% y/y.
  • Some rises in core PPIs could be seen later on the CPI trend (index to be published tomorrow).

 

US: Wholesale inventories (May): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Inventories have increased for machinery and drugs from past month; separately, sales have accelerated, particularly for autos, computers and oil products.
  • The inventory-to-sales ratio has declined from 1.27 to 1.24.

 

 

Turkey: Current account (May): -5.89bn USD vs -5.3bn expected (prior: -5.45bn revised from -5.43bn)

  • Trade deficit has increased due to a rebound in imports on weaker currency.
  • Net services and foreign direct investment have both declined from past month.
  • In terms of balance of payments, official reserves have declined by USD 2.8 bn over the month.

 

mardi 10 juillet
US: lower job openings but higher rotation; mixed industrial production in Europe

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (June): 107.2 vs 106.9 expected (prior: 107.8)

  • Sentiment has eased somewhat on future economic conditions and sales.
  • Plan for capex has eroded, but the index remained high, while plan to hire has increased further.
  • The index was volatile over the past months, but it remains close to its highest level.

 

US: JOLTS Job Openings (May): 6638 vs 6620 expected (prior: 6840 revised from 6698)

  • Job openings have moderated, but remained high.
  • Lower openings were centered in services: information, business services, education-health and leisure; openings have also eased in manufacturing.
  • Hirings rebounded in May, particularly in construction, business services healthcare and leisure.
  • Quitters have also increased over the month, and particularly in trade, healthcare and leisure.
  • Positive trend in labor has led to a higher rotation, with obvious tensions in some specific sectors.

 

Germany: Zew (July): -24.7 vs -18.9 expected (prior: -16.1)

  • Expectations and opinions on current situation have both declined more than expected. Expectations were back to the lows seen in 2012.
  • Escalating risks of a trade war have weighted down on sentiment, despite recent more positive signals on activity.

 

France: Industrial production (May): -0.2% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -0.5%)

  • Manufacturing production was down by 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% m/m expected (0.4% m/m in the prior month).
  • Activity has contracted in all sectors, except on energy. Strikes and a short month (in terms of working days) could partly explain these relatively poor figures.

 

Italy: Industrial production (May): 0.7% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: -1.3% revised from -1.2%)

  • Production has rebounded after contraction in May in all sectors, except consumer durable goods.
  • Industrial activity shows a 2% y/y trend, but domestic political uncertainties and trade dispute fuel downside risks on growth.

 

UK: Industrial production (May): -0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -1% revised from -0.8%)

  • Manufacturing production was up by 0.4% m/m vs 0.7% m/m expected (-1.3% m/m in Apr.).
  • Production in energy and machinery equipment stayed negative over the month, while clothes and pharma sectors have shown the largest rebound.
  • Production trend has turned more volatile and stayed weak, below 1% y/y.

 

UK: BRC retail sales (June): 1.1% y/y (prior: 2.8%)

  • After huge volatility in May and April, figures have slightly improved, showing a pace of growth above 1% y/y,
  • Good weather conditions and the World Cup have boosted sales

 

Norway: CPI (June): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Inflation has accelerated from 2.3% y/y in May to 2.6% y/y; core inflation was up by 0.4% m/m, but trend was stable at 1.1% y/y. Housing, transport and leisure have shown a strong monthly rebound.
lundi 09 juillet
Improving business confidence in France

France: Business sentiment (Bank of France) (Jun): 101 vs 100 expected (prior: 100)

  • Sentiment has rebounded in services, while sentiment on construction was unchanged.
  • In manufacturing, sentiment on production and orders has improved from past month.


Germany: Trade Balance (May): 19.7bn EUR vs 20.2bn expected (prior: 20.1bn revised from 20.4bn)

  • Exports m/m: 1.8% vs 0.7% expected (prior: -0.3%)
  • Imports m/m: 0.7% vs -0.5% expected (prior: 2.6% revised from 2.2%)
  • Current account: 12.6bn EUR vs 19.8bn EUR expected (prior: 23.5bn revised from 22.7bn)
vendredi 06 juillet
Strong US job creation and moderate wage growth; solid IP in Germany

US: Non-farm payrolls (June): 213k vs 195k expected (prior: 244k revised from 223k)

  • Impressively, with the 37k revision for the previous two months, job growth averaged 215k in H1, a reacceleration from the 2017 (182k) and 2016 (195k) averages.
  • Service-providing employment rose by 149k and the goods-producing sector added a solid 53k jobs. The 36k gain in manufacturing employment was the best this year.
  • The fact the companies continue to hire at a strong pace suggests that they remain confident in the economic outlook.

US: Unemployment rate (June): 4.0% vs 3.8% expected (prior: 3.8%)

  • Household employment rose by only 102k in June but the increase in the unemployment rate is due to a large increase in the labor force (+0.2 pt to 62.9%), which indicates that previously sidelined persons are increasingly confident that they can find jobs.

US: Average hourly earnings (June): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Y/y: 2.7% vs 2.8% expected (prior: 2.7%)
  • The sectors with the fastest wage growth included construction (+2.9% y/y), utilities (+3.2%), information (+3.1%), finance (+4.6%), education and health services (+2.9%), leisure and hospitality (+3.4%) but rapid wage growth is not yet very broad-based.

US: Trade balance (May): -43.1 bn USD vs -43.6 bn expected (prior: -46.1 bn revised from -46.2 bn)

  • The trade deficit continued to narrow in May as exports rose more quickly than imports.

 

Germany: Industrial production (May): 2.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -1.3% revised from -1.0%)

  • IP y/y: 3.1% vs 1.5% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 2.0%)
  • Strong rebound in May after a weak start of the year, which was at least partially due to unusually bad weather.
  • Encouragingly, strength was broad-based across components, with manufacturing up 2.7% m/m (after -1.7%) and construction up 3.1% (after +1.1%).
  • On a more cautious note, this broad-based rebound may simply reflect pent-up demand from the prior months. Next months' data will thus be important to watch.

Italy: Retail sales (May): 0.8% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.7%)

  • Retail sales grew 0.4% y/y after -4.6% in April

 

Russia: CPI (June): 0.5% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • CPI y/y: 2.3% vs 2.2% expected (prior: 2.4%)
  • CPI core: 2.3% y/y vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.0%)
  • With ruble weakness and steady gains in wages, inflation should increase in the coming months.

 

Brazil: CPI (IBGE) (June): 1.26% m/m vs 1.28% expected (prior: 0.40%)

  • CPI y/y: 4.39% vs 4.41% expected (prior: 2.86%)
  • Inflation has bottomed out in Brazil.

 

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