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Daily Macro Digest

vendredi 15 décembre
Empire manufacturing edged down, Russia cut rates more than expected

US: Empire manufacturing (Dec): 18 vs 18.7 expected (prior: 19.4)

  • The shipments component firmed by 2pt to +22.4, while the new orders component edged down 1.2pt to +19.5 and the employment index fell by 6.4pt to +5.1.
  • Overall, the index edged down but remains at a strong level by past standards.


US: Industrial production (Nov): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 0.9%)

  • Mining output increased 2.0%, while consumer goods output decreased 0.4% and utilities output contracted 1.9%, driven by a decline in electric utilities.


Russia: CBR cut rates by 50bp to 7.75%, more than expected

  • The CBR cut rates, more than expected, but signaled that easing will be more gradual in future.


Turkey: Unemployment rate (Sep): 10.6% vs 10.7% expected (prior: 10.6%)

jeudi 14 décembre
Strong US retail sales and Eurozone PMIs, no surprise from ECB and BoE

US: Retail sales (Nov.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.5%)

  • Ex auto & gas: 0.8% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.3%)
  • Retail sales were strong in November and the levels in prior months were revised up.
  • The largest gains were at nonstore retailers (+2.5%) and electronics and appliance stores (+2.1%), both of which likely received a boost from the early-month launch of the iPhone X. Sales growth at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (+0.9%), food services and drinking places (+0.7%), and clothing and accessory stores (+0.7%) was also firm. In contrast, sales were flat among general merchandise stores.
  • This suggests that private consumption accelerated in Q4.


US: Initial jobless claims (Dec. 9): 225k vs 236k expected (prior: 236k)

  • Back to a level very close to historical lows.


US: Import price index (Nov.): 0.7% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

  • The strong increase in the headline index mainly reflects a significant rise in petroleum prices.
  • Ex petroleum, import prices were only up 0.1% m/m and are just up 1.4% y/y.


US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Dec. Prel.): 55.0 vs 53.9 expected (prior: 53.9)

  • This matches the highest level since this year in January.

US: Markit Services PMI (Dec. Prel.): 52.4 vs 54.7 expected (prior: 54.5)

  • Lowest reading since September 2016.


Eurozone: ECB meeting: no change in key rates and in strategy

  • Reduction of QE (EUR from 60 to 30 bn) to begin in next Jan., QE still expected to remain until Sept.; the ECB is ready to extend its size or duration if needed.
  • Reinvestment of coupons will go on, with no end date.
  • Low inflation is driving the cautious approach on rates, and open ended strategy on QE.
  • How long the ECB could continue to buy government bonds, while low inflation projections imply and open ended process: no clear answer from Draghi.
  • Growth projections have been revised up (2.3% in 2018, and just below 2% in following years); inflation projections remain moderate: 1.4% in 2018, 1.5% in 2019, 1.7% in 2020.
  • Q&A remained elusive, with no new matter or new thinking. Minutes will probably tell more about this meeting.
  • Risks are balanced according to the ECB; positive surprises may come from growth development in the near term, according to Draghi. Negative risks come from the global environment and from the FX market, but deflationary risks have disappeared according to him.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Dec. Prel.): 60.6 vs 59.7 expected (prior: 60.1)

  • Germany: 63.3 vs 62.0 expected (prior: 62.5)
  • France: 59.3 vs 57.2 expected (prior: 57.7)
  • The headline index reached a new historical high supported by output reaching the highest level in more than 17 years. However, new orders and new export orders softened somewhat (but stay at very high levels), potentially showing first signs of a negative impact of the euro appreciation.

Eurozone: PMI Services (Dec. Prel.): 56.5 vs 56.0 expected (prior: 56.2)

  • Germany: 55.8 vs 54.6 expected (prior: 54.3)
  • France: 59.4 vs 60.0 expected (prior: 60.4)
  • Highest level since April 2011.
  • The composite PMI, driven by particularly strong manufacturing activity, reached the highest level since February 2011, against consensus expectations for a small decline.
  • These strong PMIs suggest that eurozone GDP growth may have accelerated in Q4.


UK: BoE meeting

  • The central bank left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected, following the rate increase in November.
  • The vote was unanimous, highlighting that the BoE is now in wait and see mode.
  • The MPC judged that on balance, available Q4 indicators have been softer than expected, suggesting that GDP growth in Q4 could end up somewhat below that in Q3. It maintained its view regarding inflation and sees latest developments as largely in line with forecasts.

UK: Retail sales (Nov.): 1.1% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.3%)

  • Y/y: 1.6% vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.0% revised from -0.3%)
  • Black Friday provided a welcome support to a weakening trend in retail sales.


Switzerland: SNB meeting

  • The SNB raised the inflation outlook but stressed that the policy stance remains appropriate and that it will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary.
  • The main news was the change in their macro projections. The SNB now expects GDP growth of "around 2%" in 2018 and lifted their inflation projections to 0.5% this year (from 0.4%) and 0.7% in 2018 (from 0.4%), reflecting higher oil prices and a weaker exchange rate.


Turkey: central bank meeting

  • The central bank raised one of its key rate by only 50 pb (vs 100 bp expected) to 12.75%.
mardi 12 décembre
Building pressures on US PPI and UK CPI & PPI

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Nov.): 107.5 vs 104 expected (prior: 103.8)

  • Sentiment among small firms has increased further, driven by firmer future sales and stronger activity expected.


US: PPI (Nov.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Prices of goods and energy have accelerated during the month; PPIs were up by 3.1% y/y from 2.8% y/y and core PPI was up by 0.4% m/m, and up from 2.3% y/y to 2.4% y/y.
  • Upward pressures could be translated to both headline and core inflation in the future months.


UK: CPI (Nov.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • CPI has increased further to 3.1% y/y after 3% y/y the prior month. Core inflation was up by 2.7% y/y.
  • Prices of food, clothes and recreation have driven inflation higher over the month.
  • These data will maintain pressure on BoE, as inflation far exceeds official target of 2%.


UK: PPI Input prices (Nov.): 1.8% m/m vs 1.5% expected (prior: 1%)

  • Input prices were up by 7.3% y/y after 4.8% y/y the prior month. These data reflect higher oil and commodity prices, and a weak currency.


UK: PPI Output prices (Nov.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Output prices were up by 3% y/y after 2.8% y/y the prior month.


Sweden: CPI (Nov.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • Inflation has accelerated from 1.7% y/y to 1.9% y/y; core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month (2% y/y after 1.8% y/y).


Germany: Zew (Dec.): 89.3 vs 88.7 expected (prior: 88.8)

  • While sentiment among financial community has increased on current situation, expectations have slid from 18.7 to 17.4, probably reflecting some concerns on the political situation.
lundi 11 décembre
Business confidence remains at high levels in France

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Oct.): 5996 vs 6135 expected (prior: 6177 revised from 6093)

  • Slightly down from a record in September but still very close to all-time highs and consistent with a robust job market.
  • Moreover, the hiring rate increased to match the cyclical high while layoffs dropped to one of the lowest levels since the recession.


France: Business sentiment (Bank of France) (Nov.): 106 vs 107 expected (prior: 106)

  • Second highest level since 2011.


Italy: Retail sales (Oct.): -1.0% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.9%)

  • Y/y: -2.1% after 3.1% in September
  • Food and non-food retail sales were down y/y.


Turkey: GDP (Q3): 1.2% q/q vs 1.8% expected (prior: 2.2% revised from 2.1%)

  • GDP y/y: 11.1% vs 8.5% expected (prior: 5.4%)
  • Strongest annual growth rate in more than six years (helped by base effects), led by domestic consumption.
  • With inflation at the highest level since 2013, the central bank may tighten monetary policy on Thursday.


vendredi 08 décembre
US: stronger than expected non-farm payrolls

US: Non-farm payrolls (Nov): 228k vs 195k expected (prior: 244k revised from 261k)

  • Payrolls have come higher than expected, but past month data were revised down from 261k to 244k. Job creations were strong in trade, business services and education-health.
  • Wage growth was still moderate (0.1% mm after -0.1% m/m revised down), but trend is firming (2.5% y/y after 2.3% y/y).
  • The unemployment rate has slightly increased (4.12% after 4.06%) and labor force has slightly increased. Alternative measures of unemployment rate were pretty stable from past month.
  • After some volatile figures related to hurricanes, data have stabilised and trend in labor remains healthy, supporting consumption.


US: Wholesale inventories (Oct.): -0.5% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: -0.4%)

  • Sales were still sustained (0.7% m/m after 1.4% m/m), leading to lower inventories in several sectors (autos and computers). The inventory-to-sales ratio has decreased from 1.26 to 1.25.


US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Dec.): 96.8 vs 99 expected (prior: 98.5)

  • While sentiment on current situation has increased, expectations have fallen, driven lower by concerns on future employment and rising energy prices.
  • Inflation forecasts at 12-month has rebounded from 2.5% y/y to 2.8% y/y.
  • Despite this fall, the preliminary index remains at a high level.


Germany: Trade Balance (Oct): 18.9bn EUR vs 21.9bn expected (prior: 24.1bn)

  • Exports m/m: -0.4% vs 1% expected (prior: -0.4%)
  • Imports m/m: 1.8% vs 1% expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -1%)
  • The soft data were probably disturbed by public holidays, which may have weighted on export growth. On the other side, strong imports at least partly reflect robust domestic demand.


France: Industrial production (Oct): 1.9% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.6%)

  • On y/y basis: 5.5% vs 2.9% expected (prior: 3.2%)
  • Manufacturing production: 2.7% m/m (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.4%); 6.9% y/y (prior: 3.2% revised from 3.1%)


UK: Industrial production (Oct.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7%)

  • Production in manufacturing sector was up by 0.1% m/m (0% m/m expected) after 0.7% m/m the prior month.


Turkey: Industrial production (Oct.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.6%)

  • A mixed picture across sectors: a rebound in capital good and intermediate sectors, but a plunge of the production in energy and durable consumer goods.

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