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Daily Macro Digest

Date
Title
Teaser
vendredi 20 octobre
US existing home sales edged higher, German PPI rose in September

US: Existing home sales (Sep): 5.39M vs 5.3M expected (prior: 5.35M)

  • On a m/m basis: 0.7% vs -0.9% expected (prior: -1.7%).
  • The improvement was driven by sales of single-family units, which were up 1.1% m/m, following three consecutive months of negative growth.
  • Sales of existing multi-family homes fell by 1.6% m/m. Much of the improvement in sales appears to have come from the West and Midwest.
  • The median price of existing homes declined in September but grew by 4.2% y/y.

 

Germany: PPI (Sep): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • On a y/y basis: 3.1% vs 2.9% expected (prior: 2.6%)
  • Capital goods prices rose by 0.1% m/m, while consumer goods increased by 0.1% m/m.
jeudi 19 octobre
US Philly Fed manufacturing rose, retail sales declined in the UK

US: Initial jobless claims (Oct 14): 222k vs 240k expected (prior: 243k)

  • Continuing claims: 1888k vs 1890k expected (prior: 1904k revised from 1889k)
  • As expected, claims have fallen back to pre-hurricane levels as activity in the affected areas returns to normal.

 

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Oct): 27.9 vs 22 expected (prior: 23.8)

  • The index rebounded but the composition of the report was more mixed, which a sharp increase in the employment component but decreases in both the new orders and shipments subindices.

 

UK: Retail sales (Sep): -0.8% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 1%)

  • Year on year, the quantity bought in the retail sector increase by 1.2%, with non-food (households goods, clothing stores) and non-store retailing all providing growth.
  • Store prices continue to increase across all store types and are at their highest y/y price growth since March 2012 at 3.3%.
  • Online sales values rose by 14% y/y, accounting for approximately 17% of all retail spending.

 

mercredi 18 octobre
UK real wage growth remains negative

US: Housing starts (Sept.): 1127k vs 1175k expected (prior: 1183k revised from 1180k)

  • Building permits: 1215k vs 1245k expected (prior: 1272k revised from 1300k)
  • Softer than expected but nearly all of the weakness originated in the South region affected by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

 

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Aug.): 4.3% as expected (prior: 4.3%)

  • Jobless claims change (Sept.): +1.7k after -2.8k expected (prior: -0.2k)
  • Unemployment rate remained stable at a multi-decade low in August.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Aug.): 2.2% y/y vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.2% revised from 2.1%)

  • Despite low unemployment, wage growth remained subdued and, with CPI increasing to 2.9% y/y in August, real wage growth was negative for the fifth consecutive month.

 

 

mardi 17 octobre
US: NAHB edged higher and IP was in line

US: Industrial production (Sep): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: -0.7% revised from -0.9%)

  • Manufacturing production rebounded a modest 0.1% m/mm, while utilities and mining rose by 1.5% m/m and 0.4% m/m respectively.
  • The rebound should probably continue over the next months.

 

US: NAHB housing market index (Oct): 68 vs 64 expected (prior: 64)

  • The housing market index rebounded likely reflecting waning hurricane-related disruptions in the South region.

 

Germany: Zew (Oct): 87 vs 88.5 expected (prior: 87.9)

  • Expectations: 17.6 vs 20 expected (prior: 17)
  • The figure on german investor sentiment suggests that neither the stronger euro nor ECB QE tapering are expected to have significant adverse implications for the German economy.

 

Eurozone: CPI (Sep): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • On a y/y basis: 1.5% as expected (prior: 1.5%)
  • Services prices declined by 1.1% m/m, while energy prices rose by 1% m/m.

 

UK: CPI (Sep): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • On a y/y basis: 3% as expected (prior: 2.9%)
  • CPI core y/y: 2.7% as expected (prior: 2.7%)
  • The rise was driven by food and transport prices. Core inflation was flat at 2.7%, the highest since Dec 2011.
  • The pressures from the currency on inflation are likely to peak in the coming months.

 

UK: PPI Output prices (Sep): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • On a y/y basis: 3.3% as expected (prior: 3.4%)
lundi 16 octobre
Strong US Empire manufacturing business survey

US: Empire manufacturing (Oct.): 30.2 vs 20.4 expected (prior: 24.4)

  • The headline index matches the highest level since September 2014.
  • Perhaps helped by a weaker dollar, manufacturing activity appears to be booming in the New York area at the beginning of the Q4.

 

Russia: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.9% y/y vs 1.5% expected (prior: 1.5%)

  • IP was up 1% m/m (after +2% in August), weighed down by the mining sector (-3.5% m/m).

 

 

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Expertise 16.10.2017

Dette émergente : les préjugés ont la vie dure

Souvent perçues comme trop risquées, les obligations corporate émergentes en devises externes (hard currency) offrent pourtant des profils attractifs et un couple rendement-risque très compétitif. Avec l’amélioration des fondamentaux économiques, les flux d’investissement devraient continuer de croître sur cette classe d’actifs.