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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Date
Title
Teaser
vendredi 21 septembre
Disappointing US Markit Services, soft Euro-zone composite PMI

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep P): 55.6 vs 55 expected (prior: 54.7)

  • With the new orders growth accelerating and backlogs of work rising due to weather-related disruptions, the survey data suggest underlying demand remains robust and that there's is an accumulation of work that will roll over into stronger economic growth in coming months.

 

US: Markit Services PMI (Sep P): 52.9 vs 55 expected (prior: 54.8)

  • The index declined sharply, which is the lowest level since 18 months.

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Sep P): 53.3 vs 54.5 expected (prior: 54.6)

  • Germany: 53.7 vs 55.7 expected (prior: 55.9)
  • France: 52.5 vs 53.3 expected (prior: 53.5)
  • While the index has softened, it is still consistent with a decent pace of growth.
  • However, the ECB is unlikely to change its plan to normalize policy very gradually.

 

Eurozone: PMI Services (Sep P): 54.7 vs 54.4 expected (prior: 54.4)

  • Germany: 56.5 vs 55 expected (prior: 55)
  • France: 54.3 vs 55.3 expected (prior: 55.4)
  • The Services PMI edged up in September which suggests that slower growth and the euro's appreciation are weighting more on the euro-zone's industrial sector than services sector.

 

France: GDP (Q2 F): 0.2% q/q as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Imports rose by 0.7% q/q, while exports increased by 0.1% q/q. However, household consumption declined by 0.1% q/q, while government spending rose by 0.2% q/q.
jeudi 20 septembre
US Philly Fed business sentiment has rebounded, no change in SNB strategy

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Sep): 22.9 vs 18 expected (prior: 11.9)

  • The index has rebounded from the prior month and breakdown is encouraging.
  • New orders index increased to 21.4 from 9.9. Shipments index rose to 19.6 from 16.6.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Sep 15): 201k vs 210k expected (prior: 204k)

  • Continuing claims: 1645k vs 1705k expected (prior: 1696k)
  • Initial jobless claims fell for the third consecutive week. This is the lowest level recorded since November 1969 and marks a new recovery-level low.

 

US: Existing home sales (Aug): 5.34M vs 5.37M expected (prior: 5.34M)

  • On a m/m basis: 0% vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.7%)
  • Sales of condos and single family were unchanged.
  • Median and average prices have slightly eased from past month, but they are still in a 3%-4.6% y/y range.

 

Switzerland: SNB: no change in current monetary policy

  • SNB has maintained its strategy in place (key rates at -0.75%; intervention in FX).
  • Inflation forecast has been revised down (0.8% y/y from 0.9% in 2019; 1.2% y/y from 1.6% in 2020). The SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration.
  • The SNB raised its 2018 GDP forecast to between 2.5% and 3%, compared with around 2% in June.

 

UK: Retail sales (Aug): 0.3% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.7%)

  • On a y/y basis: 3.3% vs 2.3% expected (prior: 3.8% revised from 3.5%)
  • Retail sales strength continued in August following upward revisions to July sales figures. Strong growth in non-food and in particular household goods stores helped offset weakness in food and clothing stores. Meanwhile, online discounting continued to bolster non-store retailing.
mercredi 19 septembre
Mixed housing data in the US, higher-than-expected inflation print in UK

US: Housing starts (Aug.): 1282k vs 1238k expected (prior: 1174k revised from 1168k)

  • Building permits: 1229k vs 1310k expected (prior: 1303k revised from 1311k)
  • Housing starts rose a larger-than-expected 9.2% m/m (vs 5.7% expected) while building permits fell 5.7% against expectations for a modest increase.
  • The housing market remains sound but growth is slowing.

 

UK: CPI (Aug.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • CPI y/y: 2.7% vs 2.4% expected (prior: 2.5%)
  • CPI core y/y: 2.1% vs 1.8% expected (prior: 1.9%)
  • Significantly above expectations both at the headline and core levels.
  • The increase in core inflation was primarily driven by volatile components, which means that one should not put too much weight on this monthly release.

 

UK: PPI Output prices (Aug.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.0%)

  • PPI output y/y: 2.9% as expected (prior: 3.1%); PPI output core: 2.1% y/y as expected (prior: 2.3%)
mardi 18 septembre
Stable NAHB housing market index

US: NAHB housing market index (Sept.): 67 vs 66 expected (prior: 67)

  • The headline index is unchanged but the current sales component increased by 1pt to 74, and the future sales expectations component increased by 2pt to 74.
  • Overall, homebuilders' confidence is slightly lower than at the start of the year but remains at solid levels.

 

lundi 17 septembre
US empire manufacturing edged down, CPI in line in Eurozone

 

US: Empire manufacturing (Sep): 19 vs 23 expected (prior: 25.6)

  • The decline was mainly due to shipments, which felt considerably (-11.4pt to +14.3). New orders slightly decreased (-0.6pt to 16.5) and the employment index increased (+0.2pt to +13.3).
  • Overall, the August report continues to suggest expansion in the New York region's manufacturing sector.

 

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Aug F): 2% y/y as expected (prior: 2.1%)

  • CPI core y/y: 1% as expected (prior: 1.1%)
  • The final breakdown for August confirmed that the decline was largely due to erratic components and doesn't suggest deterioration of underlying inflation prospects.
  • Inflation remains close to ECB's target, but core inflation remains low.
  • On the short run, the ECB should not change its planned strategy.

 

Turkey: Industrial production (Jul): 3.5% m/m vs -1% expected (prior: -2.1% revised from -2%)

  • On a y/y basis: 5.6% vs 1.2% expected (prior: 2.8% revised from 3.2%)
  • Intermediate goods price rose by 2.5% m/m, while energy prices increased by 2% m/m.

 

Macro economic

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Expertise 14.08.2018

Oil demand stays firm

WTI oil prices are down almost 10% since the beginning of July. At the beginning of August, oil prices started their longest weekly losing streak in three years. The US/China trade tensions fuelled concerns that global economic growth could slow, weakening worldwide energy demand.