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Expertise 15.02.2019

The Fed returns the punchbowl to the party

Spotlight - The dramatic Fed pivot from hawkish in September 2018 to now at worst ‘neutral’ signals that the Fed is reluctant to ‘take away the punchbowl’ completely from the post-2008 economic expansion.

Market insight 14.02.2019

Unexpected plunge in US retail sales, German Q4 GDP lower than expected

US: Retail sales (Dec): -1.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

  • Headline sales posted the largest drop in nine years. Excluding autos, which posted a strong 1.0% gain in December, sales plummeted an even sharper 1.8%. That's the worst m/m growth since 2008.
  • The real weakness was in the underlying sales figures; after a 1.0% gain in November, control group sales plunged by 1.7%. Weakness in the report was broad-based across categories, with sales falling in all of the major categories that compose the retail control group.
  • The largest declines were seen in sporting goods stores (-4.9%), miscellaneous store retailers (-4.1%), non-store retailers (-3.9%), and health and personal care stores (-2.0%). Outside of that core group, the only gains were seen in auto sales (up 1.0%) and building materials (up 0.3%).
  • With this figure, the Fed should remain patient on key rates.

 

US: PPI (Jan): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.2%)

  • Excluding the volatile food and energy components, underlying inflationary pressures remain firm.
  • Final demand for services, particularly trade services, rebounded in the month - a sign that firming wage pressures may be progressing into a broad pickup in price growth.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Feb 9): 239k vs 225k expected (prior: 235k revised from 234k)

  • Continuing claims: 1773k vs 1740k expected (prior: 1736k)

 

Germany: GDP (Q4 P): 0% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • On a y/y basis: 0.6% vs 0.7% expected (prior: 1.1%)
  • In Q3, the contraction was largely caused by a huge slump in output from the auto industry as new emission standards created widespread disruption.
  • While the there is no breakdown at this stage, the press release says that the decline was mostly due to weak net exports.
  • However, it also concedes that household consumption increased only "slightly". In contrast, fixed investment held up relatively well, particularly in construction.
  • German Industry will continue to struggle if external demand is not stronger.

 

Eurozone: GDP (Q4 P): 0.2% q/q as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • On a y/y basis: 1.2% as expected (prior: 1.2%)
  • The second estimate of euro-zone GDP confirmed that the economy increased by only 0.2%. There is still no expenditure breakdown for the aggregate figure, but we know from the national data that both external and domestic demand weighed on activity.

 

Turkey: Current account (Dec): -1.44bn USD vs -1.50bn expected (prior: 1.10bn revised from 0.99bn)

  • Turkey posted a current-account deficit after running a surplus for four straight months.

 

Turkey: Industrial production (Dec): -1.4% m/m (prior: -0.3%)

  • On a y/y basis: -9.8% vs -7.5% expected (prior: -6.6% revised from -6.5%).
  • Durable consumer goods declined by 7.4% m/m, while capital goods decreased by 2.2% m/m.
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Expertise 15.02.2019

The Fed returns the punchbowl to the party

Spotlight - The dramatic Fed pivot from hawkish in September 2018 to now at worst ‘neutral’ signals that the Fed is reluctant to ‘take away the punchbowl’ completely from the post-2008 economic expansion.