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Expertise 12.10.2017

« La correction boursière est terminée en Europe »

« La correction boursière est terminée en Europe »

Après la consolidation estivale, les indices boursiers sont repartis à la hausse depuis le mois dernier. Mais il est toujours temps de se repositionner sur les marchés actions, et en particulier sur les petites et moyennes capitalisations.


Les marchés actions ont traversé une période de consolidation entre la mi-mai et la fin août : le MSCI Europe a reculé de plus de 5% et le MSCI Europe Small Cap Index de près de 4%. Si la saison des résultats trimestriels n’a pas révélé de mauvaises surprises, les tensions géopolitiques marquées notamment par la crise diplomatique entre les Etats-Unis et la Corée du Nord ont alimenté la progression de la volatilité. La hausse de l’euro par rapport au dollar est également un facteur négatif pour les entreprises exportatrices européennes. La meilleure résistance estivale des valeurs moyennes européennes s’explique ainsi par la moindre exposition internationale de ces entreprises par rapport aux grandes capitalisations.

Cette correction estivale est intervenue après une période de hausse de plus de 10% des grands indices européens depuis le début de l’année. Or, l’environnement macroéconomique global reste très favorable en Europe. Avec des indices PMI et IFO (Allemagne) bien orientés, une amélioration sensible de la conjoncture en France et en Italie, les indicateurs plaident en faveur d’une poursuite de l’expansion économique en zone euro.  Les inquiétudes des investisseurs vis-à-vis du risque politique se sont dissipées avec l’élection d’Emmanuel Macron en France. Plus récemment, la réélection d’Angela Merkel à la Chancellerie constitue un gage de stabilité pour les politiques européennes.

Des valeurs moyennes plus cycliques que défensives

Ainsi, cette consolidation boursière est désormais achevée. Si les grands indices boursiers devraient repartir de l’avant, le contexte est notamment favorable à la hausse des indices Small & Midcaps.

En effet, l’appréciation du dollar par rapport à l’euro  devrait continuer de favoriser les petites et moyennes capitalisations, davantage implantées sur leur marché domestique et européen.

Depuis la fin de l’été, les valeurs cycliques et industrielles sont par ailleurs à privilégier. Or, les valeurs moyennes présentent en moyenne des profils plus cycliques que leurs homologues « large caps ». La fin de cette consolidation estivale est donc propice pour un repositionnement sur le marché des Small & Midcaps. Rappelons également que les valeurs moyennes sont présentes sur des marchés de « niche » et subissent par conséquent moins violemment les aléas de la conjoncture globale.

Parmi les pays européens qui offrent actuellement les meilleures opportunités d’investissement dans l’univers des petites et moyennes capitalisations, la France occupe une place de choix. Sa trajectoire économique est bien orientée avec 1,7% de croissance du PIB attendue en 2017. Un rythme qui devrait se poursuivre l’an prochain. Certaines valeurs espagnoles et irlandaises sont également attrayantes.

Plus d'informations sur les SMID caps

ANNISS_CHARLES_15.jpg

Charlie Anniss
Small- and Mid-Cap Portfolio Manager, European Equities team

 

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Market insight 24.04.2018

Richmond Fed manufacturing fell sharply in April, disappointing German IFO survey

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Apr): -3 vs 16 expected (prior: 15)

  • The index fell sharply in April for the second consecutive month.
  • The underlying composition was generally weak, with sharp declines in the shipments and new orders components.

 

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Apr): 128.7 vs 126 expected (prior: 127 revised from 127.7)

  • The improvement in confidence was spread evenly across the present situation and expectations indices.

 

US: New home sales (Mar): 694k vs 630k expected (prior: 667k revised from 618k)

  • On a m/m basis: 4% vs 1.9% expected (prior: 3.6% revised from -0.6%)
  • By region, March sales increased in the West (+28.3%), South (+0.8%) but declined in the Northeast (-54.8%) and Midwest (-2.4%). Inventory available on the market edged down to 5.2 months of available supply, towards the lower end of its 12-month range.

 

US: Housing prices (FFHA) (Feb): 0.6% q/q as expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)

 

Germany: IFO (Apr): 102.1 vs 102.8 expected (prior: 103.3 revised from 103.2)

  • Expectations: 98.7 vs 99.5 expected (prior: 100 revised from 103.2)
  • Current assessment: 105.7 vs 106 expected (prior: 106.6 revised from 106.5)
  • The headline decline was driven by a drop in expectations. From a sector perspective, sentiment in manufacturing eased further from high levels, while construction and retail sentiment improved slightly.
  • Note that there have been methodological changes to the survey this month, which in theory should make it a better guide to German GDP growth.

 

France: Business confidence (Apr): 108 as expected (prior: 109)

  • Manufacturing: 109 vs 110 expected (prior: 110 revised from 111)
Market insight 23.04.2018

Flash PMI manufacturing: higher in the US but lower in the eurozone; flash PMI services higher in the US and in the eurozone

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr.): 56.5 vs 55.2 expected (prior: 55.6)

  • Flash estimate of business sentiment in manufacturing has rebounded from past month thanks to new orders and production.
  • These data, if confirmed, will fuel the scenario of a rebound in activity in Q2.

 

US: Markit Services PMI (Apr.): 54.4 vs 54.1 expected (prior: 54)

  • A modest rebound in flash estimate for services: improving new orders, but lower employment.

 

US: Existing home sales (March): 5.6M vs 5.55M expected (prior: 5.54M)

  • A rebound in sales of condos, but a modest rise in single family house. Inventories were slightly on the rise.
  • Median and average prices of houses sold remained on a strong trend (respectively: 5.8% y/y; 4.1% y/y).
  • Trend in sales remain positive, but monthly data were highly volatile over the past four months.

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Apr.): 56 vs 56.1 expected (prior: 56.6)

  • Flash estimate of business sentiment has eroded further from past month; the fall was limited in Germany (-0.1 point) but larger in France (-0.3 pt).
  • Business sentiment has probably weakened in peripherals leading to the monthly fall in total estimate.
  • Growth should stabilize at a slightly lower pace in Q1-Q2 compared to the highs seen in Q4.

 

Eurozone: PMI Services (Apr.): 55 vs 54.6 expected (prior: 54.9)

  • Flash estimate in services has slightly increased from past month; sentiment has increased more in France (+0.5 pt) than in Germany (+0.2 pt).

 

Poland: Retail sales (March): 17.8% m/m vs 16.6% expected (prior: -3%)

  • Trend in sales has accelerated from 7.9% y/y to 9.2% y/y (8.8% y/y in real terms).
  • The rebound was broad-based across sectors.

 

Switzerland: M3 (March): 3.3% y/y (prior: 3.7%)

  • Growth pace of monetary aggregates has slowed down from past month.
Market insight 19.04.2018

Mixed Philly Fed business sentiment in the US; declining sales in UK

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Apr.): 23.2 vs 21 expected (prior: 22.3)

  • Sentiment on current situation has slightly increased but the six-month view index has significantly declined from previous highs.
  • Positive view on current situation has been fueled by rising prices paid, employment and average workweek, while shipments and new orders were on the decline.
  • The decline on future view has been fueled by orders, employment and capital expenditure.
  • As the survey is very volatile, it is difficult to really conclude on the underlying trend except a return from previous high level.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Apr. 14): 232k vs 230k expected (prior: 233k)

  • Continuing claims at 1863 k after 1878 k past week.

 

UK: Retail sales (March): -0.5% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.6%)

  • Extraordinary bad weather conditions have weighted down on monthly sales, and the fall was broad-based across sectors.
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Poland: Industrial production (March): 11.4% m/m vs 12.4% expected (prior: -2.2%)

  • Technical rebound after the fall past month; the yearly trend has moderated.

 

Poland: PPI (March): 0.4%m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.3%)

  • PPIs have rebounded from -0.1% y/y to 0.3% y/y.

A lire également

Market insight 24.04.2018

Richmond Fed manufacturing fell sharply in April, disappointing German IFO survey

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Apr): -3 vs 16 expected (prior: 15)

  • The index fell sharply in April for the second consecutive month.
  • The underlying composition was generally weak, with sharp declines in the shipments and new orders components.

 

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Apr): 128.7 vs 126 expected (prior: 127 revised from 127.7)

  • The improvement in confidence was spread evenly across the present situation and expectations indices.

 

US: New home sales (Mar): 694k vs 630k expected (prior: 667k revised from 618k)

  • On a m/m basis: 4% vs 1.9% expected (prior: 3.6% revised from -0.6%)
  • By region, March sales increased in the West (+28.3%), South (+0.8%) but declined in the Northeast (-54.8%) and Midwest (-2.4%). Inventory available on the market edged down to 5.2 months of available supply, towards the lower end of its 12-month range.

 

US: Housing prices (FFHA) (Feb): 0.6% q/q as expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)

 

Germany: IFO (Apr): 102.1 vs 102.8 expected (prior: 103.3 revised from 103.2)

  • Expectations: 98.7 vs 99.5 expected (prior: 100 revised from 103.2)
  • Current assessment: 105.7 vs 106 expected (prior: 106.6 revised from 106.5)
  • The headline decline was driven by a drop in expectations. From a sector perspective, sentiment in manufacturing eased further from high levels, while construction and retail sentiment improved slightly.
  • Note that there have been methodological changes to the survey this month, which in theory should make it a better guide to German GDP growth.

 

France: Business confidence (Apr): 108 as expected (prior: 109)

  • Manufacturing: 109 vs 110 expected (prior: 110 revised from 111)
Market insight 23.04.2018

Flash PMI manufacturing: higher in the US but lower in the eurozone; flash PMI services higher in the US and in the eurozone

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr.): 56.5 vs 55.2 expected (prior: 55.6)

  • Flash estimate of business sentiment in manufacturing has rebounded from past month thanks to new orders and production.
  • These data, if confirmed, will fuel the scenario of a rebound in activity in Q2.

 

US: Markit Services PMI (Apr.): 54.4 vs 54.1 expected (prior: 54)

  • A modest rebound in flash estimate for services: improving new orders, but lower employment.

 

US: Existing home sales (March): 5.6M vs 5.55M expected (prior: 5.54M)

  • A rebound in sales of condos, but a modest rise in single family house. Inventories were slightly on the rise.
  • Median and average prices of houses sold remained on a strong trend (respectively: 5.8% y/y; 4.1% y/y).
  • Trend in sales remain positive, but monthly data were highly volatile over the past four months.

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Apr.): 56 vs 56.1 expected (prior: 56.6)

  • Flash estimate of business sentiment has eroded further from past month; the fall was limited in Germany (-0.1 point) but larger in France (-0.3 pt).
  • Business sentiment has probably weakened in peripherals leading to the monthly fall in total estimate.
  • Growth should stabilize at a slightly lower pace in Q1-Q2 compared to the highs seen in Q4.

 

Eurozone: PMI Services (Apr.): 55 vs 54.6 expected (prior: 54.9)

  • Flash estimate in services has slightly increased from past month; sentiment has increased more in France (+0.5 pt) than in Germany (+0.2 pt).

 

Poland: Retail sales (March): 17.8% m/m vs 16.6% expected (prior: -3%)

  • Trend in sales has accelerated from 7.9% y/y to 9.2% y/y (8.8% y/y in real terms).
  • The rebound was broad-based across sectors.

 

Switzerland: M3 (March): 3.3% y/y (prior: 3.7%)

  • Growth pace of monetary aggregates has slowed down from past month.
Market insight 19.04.2018

Mixed Philly Fed business sentiment in the US; declining sales in UK

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Apr.): 23.2 vs 21 expected (prior: 22.3)

  • Sentiment on current situation has slightly increased but the six-month view index has significantly declined from previous highs.
  • Positive view on current situation has been fueled by rising prices paid, employment and average workweek, while shipments and new orders were on the decline.
  • The decline on future view has been fueled by orders, employment and capital expenditure.
  • As the survey is very volatile, it is difficult to really conclude on the underlying trend except a return from previous high level.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Apr. 14): 232k vs 230k expected (prior: 233k)

  • Continuing claims at 1863 k after 1878 k past week.

 

UK: Retail sales (March): -0.5% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.6%)

  • Extraordinary bad weather conditions have weighted down on monthly sales, and the fall was broad-based across sectors.
  • Consumption has weakened in Q1; downside risks remain in place as the political situation has turned more fragile domestically.

 

Poland: Industrial production (March): 11.4% m/m vs 12.4% expected (prior: -2.2%)

  • Technical rebound after the fall past month; the yearly trend has moderated.

 

Poland: PPI (March): 0.4%m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.3%)

  • PPIs have rebounded from -0.1% y/y to 0.3% y/y.