US: declining monthly PPIs on lower energy, still falling business confidence in New York
US: Empire manufacturing (Jan.): 3.9 vs 10 expected (prior: 11.5 revised from 10.9)
- Sentiment has declined further after the fall seen the prior month (index slightly revised up).
- On current and future views, the fall was driven by lower new orders, shipment and also lower employment.
- The index was back to the mid-2017 and 2015 levels, pointing towards a renewed mini cycle (the slowdown part) in industry.
US: PPI (Dec.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Lower energy prices and lower trade services have driven the changes on PPIs.
- The yearly trend stayed stable at 2.5% y/y; core PPIs were flat over the month and also stayed stable on a yearly basis (2.8% y/y).
- These data should help the Fed to be patient.
Sweden: Retail sales (Nov.): -0.5% m/m (prior: 0.2% revised from -0.2%)
- The yearly trend for consumption has contracted by -0.5% y/y after 1.5% y/y in past month.
France: CPI (Dec.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)
- Inflation has been confirmed back below 2% y/y, at 1.9% y/y, on lower energy prices.
Germany: GDP YoY (2018): 1.5% y/y as expected (prior: 2.2%)
- First GDP estimate for the whole year has pointed towards a marked slowdown from above 2% growth in 2017.
- Implicitly growth in Q4 (official number to be released by 14th Feb.) was mildly positive (around 0.2% q/q) based on preliminary data.
- By sector, export performances and consumption have slowed down significantly in 2018, while investment stayed more dynamic. 2019 growth outlook is around 1.5%, with still downside risks in place notably on Q119.
Spain: CPI (Dec.): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)
- Inflation has been confirmed on a lower trend thanks to falling energy prices. The yearly trend has moderated from 1.7% y/y to 1.2% y/y.
Poland: CPI (Dec.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)
- As estimated, inflation trend has moderated from 1.3% y/y to 1.1% y/y; Prices of energy and of clothes have both declined on a monthly basis.
Brazil: Retail sales (Nov.): 2.9% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -0.4%)
- Sales have rebounded more than expected after downward revisions to past month data. Purchases of furniture, household goods have strongly rebounded after the election.
Turkey: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 11.6% vs 11.4% expected (prior: 11.4%)
- The unemployment ratio stayed on a rising trend for several months.