US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Apr.): 103.5 vs 102 expected (prior: 101.8)
- Sentiment has continued to recover, with improving outlook on the economy, more positive views on profits and on compensation.
- The index remained below its 2018 average, but close to level seen in 2017, pointing in favor of a mini cycle in industry.
US: Import price index (Apr.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.6%)
- Oil and food prices have rebounded, while prices in other sectors stayed muted or even declined. Yearly trend has weakened to -0.2% y/y after 0.1% y/y past month.
- Export prices were up by 0.2% m/m (0.6% m/m expected) after 0.6% m/m past month, and up by only 0.3% y/y.
UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (March): 3.8% vs 3.9% expected (prior: 3.9%)
- Claimant count was stable at 3%; jobless claims have increased further from 22.6 k past month to 24.7 k. While trend remains positive in labor, pace to job creations has moderated since 2018 Dec.
UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (March): 3.2% y/y vs 3.4% expected (prior: 3.5%)
- Bonuses have moderated over the past two months, leading to a slower trend in total compensation than in past months. Notably, trend in wages in construction has moderated at 2.1% y/y from 5.2% y/y past month.
Eurozone: Industrial production (March): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.2%)
- Despite small upward revisions to past month data, production remained in contraction, due to fall in energy and non-durable consumer goods; production of capital goods and durable consumer goods have shown a modest rebound, but monthly volatility is huge since past Oct.
- Yearly trend remains negative for total production (-0.6% y/y), but it is only slightly positive for capital goods (1.3% y/y).
Germany: Zew (May): -2.1 vs 5 expected (prior: 3.1)
- Expectations on Germany among financial community have fallen back into negative territory, contrary to expectations. Sentiment on current situation has gained further after past month recovery.
- By sector, sentiment remained depressed in autos, finance and it has deteriorated in steel and in mechanical engineering; it has increased in construction, telco and IT.
Germany: Wholesale price (Apr.): 0.6% m/m (prior: 0.3%)
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 1.8% y/y to 2.1% y/y.
Germany: CPI (Apr.): 1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)
- Final data confirmed the rebound due to energy, clothes and leisure services. Yearly trend was up from 1.3% y/y past month to 2.1% y/y.
Spain: CPI (Apr.): 1.1% m/m as expected (prior: 1.4%)
- Prices have rebounded as expected, due to clothes, transport-energy and leisure services. Yearly trend has rebounded from 1.3% y/y to 1.6% y/y.
Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Apr.): 0% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Import prices were down by 0.1% m/m; oil prices have rebounded, but food, other basic and consumer durable goods prices were down over the month. Producer prices were up by 0.1% m/m.
- Trend in import/producer prices remained negative at -0.6% y/y after -0.2% y/y past month.
Sweden: CPI (Apr.): 0.7% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Prices of clothes and transport have driven inflation up; yearly trend has reached 2.1% y/y after 1.9% y/y past month. Core inflation was up by 0.6% m/m, up by 1.6% y/y after 1.5% y/y past month.
Poland: Current account (March): 533Mio EUR vs -1187Mio expected (prior: -342Mio revised from -1386Mio)
- Trade balance has shown a surplus after deficit, thanks to large rebound in exports.
Turkey: Industrial production (March): 2.1% m/m vs 0.9% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 1.3%)
- Recovery has continued through Q1, driven up by capital goods production.