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Market insight 19.04.2018

Mixed Philly Fed business sentiment in the US; declining sales in UK

Mixed Philly Fed business sentiment in the US; declining sales in UK

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Apr.): 23.2 vs 21 expected (prior: 22.3)

  • Sentiment on current situation has slightly increased but the six-month view index has significantly declined from previous highs.
  • Positive view on current situation has been fueled by rising prices paid, employment and average workweek, while shipments and new orders were on the decline.
  • The decline on future view has been fueled by orders, employment and capital expenditure.
  • As the survey is very volatile, it is difficult to really conclude on the underlying trend except a return from previous high level.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Apr. 14): 232k vs 230k expected (prior: 233k)

  • Continuing claims at 1863 k after 1878 k past week.

 

UK: Retail sales (March): -0.5% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.6%)

  • Extraordinary bad weather conditions have weighted down on monthly sales, and the fall was broad-based across sectors.
  • Consumption has weakened in Q1; downside risks remain in place as the political situation has turned more fragile domestically.

 

Poland: Industrial production (March): 11.4% m/m vs 12.4% expected (prior: -2.2%)

  • Technical rebound after the fall past month; the yearly trend has moderated.

 

Poland: PPI (March): 0.4%m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.3%)

  • PPIs have rebounded from -0.1% y/y to 0.3% y/y.


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