US: disappointing housing starts and Philly Fed sentiment
US: Initial jobless claims (Aug. 11): 212k vs 215k expected (prior: 214k revised from 213k)
- Continuing claims: 1721 k after 1760 k prior week.
US: Philadelphia Fed. (Aug.): 11.9 vs 22 expected (prior: 25.7)
- While sentiment on current situation has severely declined (on all components including employment), the six-month view has strongly rebounded (also broad based across components).
- This should point towards temporary worries (trade, tariffs, labor), while the broad outlook remains positive.
US: Housing starts (July): 1168k vs 1260k expected (prior: 1158k revised from 1173k)
- Data were revised lower on the prior month, but the resulting rebound on July looked modest.
- Single family housing starts have stabilized at a low level, but elated building permits have rebounded, which should bring a rebound in data in the coming months.
- Trend in housing has deteriorated, reflecting rising mortgage rates and data point towards some stabilization.
UK: Retail sales (July): 0.7% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.5%)
- Sales have rebounded driven up by clothes, non-food goods and internet sales. Discounts and tourism, plus World Cup, have probably supported this rebound after a sharp contraction in June.
- Labor and wages should support further consumption but inflation remains high.
Turkey: Industrial production (June): -2% m/m (prior: -1.6%)
- Production has slowed down from 6.5% y/y the prior month to 3.2% y/y. The fall was broad based, except a few sectors.