Eroding US Philly Fed; falling UKS retail sales
US: Philadelphia Fed. (Oct.): 22.2 vs 20 expected (prior: 22.9)
- Sentiment has eased on current and future situation. On the short run, new orders eased and shipment increased; large swings in inventories and delivery from the past months suggest some disruption in the production chain.
- Expectations have moderated, but remained high thanks to orders and shipments; opinions have moderated on capex and employment from already high level.
- Despite this easing and some volatility, trend in activity looks positive.
US: Initial jobless claims (Oct.13): 210k vs 211k expected (prior: 215k revised from 214k)
- Continuing claims: 1640 k vs 1663 k expected (1653 k past week).
UK: Retail sales (Sept.): -0.8% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.3%)
- Despite upwards revisions to past month data, the fall was larger than expected due to food sales.
- Yearly trend has slowed down, but is still close to 3% y/y.
Switzerland: Trade balance (Sept.): 2.43 Bn CHF (prior: 2.08Bn)
- Real exports: -0.8% m/m after -0.3% m/m; real imports: -0.4% m/m after -2.5% m/m.
- Trade surplus has increased over the month, but trend has deteriorated on export performances.
Sweden: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 6.5% as expected (prior: 6.6%)
- Unemployment stayed on a decreasing trend in place since June.