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Market insight 23.04.2018

Flash PMI manufacturing: higher in the US but lower in the eurozone; flash PMI services higher in the US and in the eurozone

Flash PMI manufacturing: higher in the US but lower in the eurozone; flash PMI services higher in the US and in the eurozone

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr.): 56.5 vs 55.2 expected (prior: 55.6)

  • Flash estimate of business sentiment in manufacturing has rebounded from past month thanks to new orders and production.
  • These data, if confirmed, will fuel the scenario of a rebound in activity in Q2.

 

US: Markit Services PMI (Apr.): 54.4 vs 54.1 expected (prior: 54)

  • A modest rebound in flash estimate for services: improving new orders, but lower employment.

 

US: Existing home sales (March): 5.6M vs 5.55M expected (prior: 5.54M)

  • A rebound in sales of condos, but a modest rise in single family house. Inventories were slightly on the rise.
  • Median and average prices of houses sold remained on a strong trend (respectively: 5.8% y/y; 4.1% y/y).
  • Trend in sales remain positive, but monthly data were highly volatile over the past four months.

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Apr.): 56 vs 56.1 expected (prior: 56.6)

  • Flash estimate of business sentiment has eroded further from past month; the fall was limited in Germany (-0.1 point) but larger in France (-0.3 pt).
  • Business sentiment has probably weakened in peripherals leading to the monthly fall in total estimate.
  • Growth should stabilize at a slightly lower pace in Q1-Q2 compared to the highs seen in Q4.

 

Eurozone: PMI Services (Apr.): 55 vs 54.6 expected (prior: 54.9)

  • Flash estimate in services has slightly increased from past month; sentiment has increased more in France (+0.5 pt) than in Germany (+0.2 pt).

 

Poland: Retail sales (March): 17.8% m/m vs 16.6% expected (prior: -3%)

  • Trend in sales has accelerated from 7.9% y/y to 9.2% y/y (8.8% y/y in real terms).
  • The rebound was broad-based across sectors.

 

Switzerland: M3 (March): 3.3% y/y (prior: 3.7%)

  • Growth pace of monetary aggregates has slowed down from past month.


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