US: rising business sentiment and firm core retail sales
US: Empire manufacturing (Oct.): 21.1 vs 20 expected (prior: 19)
- The index has rebounded after a temporary fall in the prior month; nevertheless, details offered a mixed picture, as expectations have eroded on weakening future employment and capex;
- Over the short-term, new orders and shipments stayed positive.
US: Retail sales (Sept.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Over the month, autos, furniture, electronics and internet sales were strong, while gasoil consumption and restaurant came lower; the fall in the latest sector was mainly due to hurricanes.
- Despite moderate total sales, core sales (ex-food, gas, building materials and autos) were solid, up by 0.5% m/m, which is a positive sign for consumption in terms of Q3 GDP numbers.
US: Business inventories (Aug.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.6%)
- Inventories declined in Sept. in manufacturers but increased for retailers and wholesalers, notably in the auto sector.
- Sales stayed strong, up by 0.5% m/m, but were flat for retailers, which saw the ratio inventory-to-sales on a modest rise.
Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Sept.): -0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0%)
- While import prices were flat for the second month (higher energy but lower food prices), producer prices were down by 0.2% m/m, driven by lower costs of recycling.
- On a yearly basis, prices have moderated from 5.7% y/y to 4.8% y/y for import prices, and from 2.2% y/y to 1.6% y/y for producer prices.
Poland: CPI (Sept.): 0.2% m/m (prior: 0.2%)
- Rises in food, education and clothes were balanced by lower prices in communication and transport.
- The yearly trend has slightly eroded from 2% to 1.9% y/y.
Poland: Current account (Aug.): -549Mio EUR vs -442Mio expected (prior: -750Mio revised from -809Mio)
- Trade deficit has moderated from past month.
Russia: Industrial production (Sept.): 2.1% y/y vs 2.5% expected (prior: 2.7%)
- Trend in energy related sectors and in manufacturing has improved (up by 3.6% y/y for manufacturing).
Turkey: Unemployment rate (July): 10.8% (prior: 10.2%)
- Unemployment ratio stays on a rising trend since April.