US JOLTS survey: a still healthy underlying trend in labor
US: JOLTS Job Openings (Oct.): 7079 vs 7100 expected (prior: 6960 revised from 7009)
- Despite some downwards revisions and slightly lower than expected data, trend remained positive for job openings and hirings; separations and quitters have moderated from the past months.
- The JOLTS survey looks relatively more positive than the latest non-farm payrolls, with no real change in the underlying trend; this should comfort the Fed to continue to hike rates.
UK: Industrial production (Oct.): -0.6% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0%)
- Production in the manufacturing sector has fallen more than expected. Activity was up in mining, oil & gas, but down in the other sectors.
- Within manufacturing, production of durable goods was up by 1.3% m/m, while it was negative for intermediary goods, and has severely fallen in non-durable and investment goods.
- Sentiment in manufacturing has rebounded in Nov., which could lead to some stabilization in activity, but political risks could weigh further down on the cycle.
Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Nov.): 2.4% vs 2.5% expected (prior: 2.5%)
- The unemployment ratio seasonally adjusted has eased a bit from past month, to reach new historical lows since 2008.
Sweden: Retail sales (Oct.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0%)
- Consumption stayed in negative territory.
Norway: CPI (Nov.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.2%)
- Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m vs 0% m/m expected. Inflation trend has increased further: 3.5% y/y after 3.1% y/y past month, and core inflation up by 2.2% y/y after 1.6% y/y past month.
Norway: PPI incl. Oil (Nov.): -3.2% m/m (prior: 3.6%)
- PPIs have moderated from 22.5% y/y past month to 14.9% y/y.
Germany: Trade Balance (Oct.): 18.3bn EUR vs 17.1bn expected (prior: 18.3bn revised from 18.4bn)
- Current account balance: EUR 15.9 bn (EUR 18.8 bn expected; EUR 21.4 bn past month).
- Exports have recovered after -0.4% m/m past month to 0.7% m/m by Oct.; imports have regained from flat to up by 1.3% m/m.
Italy: Industrial production (Oct.): 0.1% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.2%)
- Production of consumer goods has rebounded (1.3% m/m after 0.7% m/m past month), while activity in other sectors has declined further.
- The economic situation remains fragile and uncertainties on politics still dominate.
Turkey: GDP (Q3-18): -1.1% q/q vs -1.2% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.9%)
- Activity has contracted in Q3 after moderate growth by Q2; growth trend has moderated from 5.3% y/y on Q2 to 1.6% y/y by Q3.
- By sector, activity has sharply contracted in all sectors except exports.