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Market insight 15.10.2018

US: rising business sentiment and firm core retail sales

US: rising business sentiment and firm core retail sales

US: Empire manufacturing (Oct.): 21.1 vs 20 expected (prior: 19)

  • The index has rebounded after a temporary fall in the prior month; nevertheless, details offered a mixed picture, as expectations have eroded on weakening future employment and capex;
  • Over the short-term, new orders and shipments stayed positive.

 

US: Retail sales (Sept.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Over the month, autos, furniture, electronics and internet sales were strong, while gasoil consumption and restaurant came lower; the fall in the latest sector was mainly due to hurricanes.
  • Despite moderate total sales, core sales (ex-food, gas, building materials and autos) were solid, up by 0.5% m/m, which is a positive sign for consumption in terms of Q3 GDP numbers.

 

US: Business inventories (Aug.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.6%)

  • Inventories declined in Sept. in manufacturers but increased for retailers and wholesalers, notably in the auto sector.
  • Sales stayed strong, up by 0.5% m/m, but were flat for retailers, which saw the ratio inventory-to-sales on a modest rise.

 

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Sept.): -0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0%)

  • While import prices were flat for the second month (higher energy but lower food prices), producer prices were down by 0.2% m/m, driven by lower costs of recycling.
  • On a yearly basis, prices have moderated from 5.7% y/y to 4.8% y/y for import prices, and from 2.2% y/y to 1.6% y/y for producer prices.

 

Poland: CPI (Sept.): 0.2% m/m (prior: 0.2%)

  • Rises in food, education and clothes were balanced by lower prices in communication and transport.
  • The yearly trend has slightly eroded from 2% to 1.9% y/y.

 

Poland: Current account (Aug.): -549Mio EUR vs -442Mio expected (prior: -750Mio revised from -809Mio)

  • Trade deficit has moderated from past month.

 

Russia: Industrial production (Sept.): 2.1% y/y vs 2.5% expected (prior: 2.7%)

  • Trend in energy related sectors and in manufacturing has improved (up by 3.6% y/y for manufacturing).

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (July): 10.8% (prior: 10.2%)

  • Unemployment ratio stays on a rising trend since April.


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Market insight 11.10.2018

Moderate US inflation

US: CPI (Sept.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Core inflation stayed moderate, up by 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% m/m expected.
  • Prices of apparels and computers rebounded in Sept., but energy prices fell and prices in other sectors stayed moderate (rents up by 0.2% m/m).
  • Yearly trend has also moderated from 2.9% past month to 2.3% y/y, while trend stayed stable for core inflation at 2.2% y/y.
  • Inflation is expected to stay in 2% -2.5% y/y range in the coming months, but upside risks remain, notably on core inflation, as labor is tight and wages on the rise.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Oct. 6): 214k vs 207k expected (prior: 207k)

  • Continuing claims: 1660 k after 1656 k.

 

UK: RICS house price balance (Sept.): -2% vs 1% expected (prior: 1% revised from 2%)

  • Balance of opinions on prices has deteriorated again with rising concerns about Brexit.

 

Sweden: CPI (Sept.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Core inflation was up by 0.5% m/m. Trend in inflation has accelerated from 2% y/y to 2.5%y/y for headline inflation and from 2.2% to 2.5% y/y for core inflation due to rising trend in housing and food prices.

 

France: CPI (Sept.): -0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Large increase has been seen in Sept. in clothes, fresh food and also in energy prices, but they were more than compensated by lower prices in transport.
  • Yearly trend in inflation has stabilized at 2.5% y/y.

 

Spain: CPI (Sept.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: %)

  • The rebound in prices has been driven by higher prices of clothes and in housing.
  • Trend has slightly accelerated from 2.2% to 2.3% y/y.

 

Brazil: Retail sales (Aug.): 1.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.5%)

  • A large rebound in clothes and personal items. Trend has come back into positive territory (4.3% y/y).

 

Turkey: Current account (Aug.): 2.59bn USD vs 2.5bn expected (prior: -1.78bn revised from -1.75bn)

  • Trade deficit has significantly decreased from past month (USD -1.3 bn from USD -4.8 bn). Balance for services and inflows have more than compensated the trade deficit, fueling a current account surplus.
Market insight 12.10.2018

Marginally lower US consumer confidence, solid EZ industrial production in August

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Oct. Prel.): 99.0 vs 100.5 expected (prior: 100.1)

  • Slightly down (probably as a result of rising gasoline prices), but still very close to a 14-year high.
  • This provides another reason to expect consumer spending growth to remain solid in the near term.

US: Import price index (Sept.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.6%)

  • Y/y: 3.5% vs 3.1% expected (prior: 3.8%)
  • The increase was driven by food and energy prices while the core measure excluding petroleum prices was flat.

Eurozone: Industrial production (Aug.): 1.0% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.7% revised from -0.8%)

  • IP y/y: 0.9% vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from -0.1%)
  • Solid rebound but this comes after two marked drops.
  • Declining PMI new orders suggest lower gains in the coming months.
Market insight 16.10.2018

A new record high in US job openings

US: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Manufacturing production has increased by 0.2% m/m after 0.3% m/m the prior month, driven higher by auto production and some equipment goods. The production in utility sector was down over the month.
  • Industrial activity was firmer in Q3 than in Q2, and the impact of hurricanes stayed modest.

 

US: NAHB housing market index (Oct.): 68 vs 66 expected (prior: 67)

  • Sentiment in housing has slightly increased on firmer sales.
  • This could point towards some stabilization after regular erosion since Jan.

 

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Aug.): 7136 vs 6900 expected (prior: 7077 revised from 6939)

  • Job openings stayed on an upward trend. The new acceleration in openings came from business services, education and health sectors. The turnover has also marginally increased.
  • Pressures on wages could remain in place in this environment.

 

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Aug.): 4% as expected (prior: 4%)

  • Claimant count rate was also stable at 2.6%; nevertheless, jobless claims have increased from 14.2 k the prior month to 18.5 k.
  • Despite stable unemployment ratio, unemployed has turned more volatile and slightly on the rise.

 

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Aug.): 2.7% y/y vs 2.6% expected (prior: 2.6%)

  • After a moderation in June, trend in wages is rising again, driven by rises in construction, retail and services.
  • This will fuel the BoE's tightening bias already in place; real wage growth has returned to positive territory.

 

Germany: Zew (Oct.): -24.7 vs -12 expected (prior: -10.6)

  • Expectations and views on current situation have plunged among financial community regarding Germany. This reflects rising concerns on trade and deteriorating domestic political situation.

 

Italy: Industrial orders (Aug.): 4.9% m/m (prior: -2.2% revised from -2.3%)

  • Foreign orders have strongly rebounded, while domestic orders were quite flat over the month. On a yearly basis, foreign orders also drive the trend (11% y/y), while domestic orders are depressed (-7.5% y/y).
  • Total sales were up by 1.2% m/m (driven by foreign sales), and up by 3% y/y.

 

Turkey: Industrial production (Aug.): -1.1% m/m vs -2.4% expected (prior: 3.5%)

  • Production has fallen less than expected, but trend across sectors is diverging.
  • Production in manufacturing was down by 1.5% m/m after the rebound seen in July (3.9% m/m). Yearly trend has moderated from 5.6% y/y in July to 1.7% y/y in Aug.

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Market insight 17.10.2018

Lower UK inflation; US housing starts impacted by hurricanes

US: Housing starts (Sept.): 1201k vs 1210k expected (prior: 1268k revised from 1282k)

  • Building permits: 1241 k vs 1275 k expected (1249 k prior month).
  • The fall in building permits and housing starts has been driven by a collapse in multifamily houses. Building permits for single family have slightly rebounded over the month.
  • Hurricanes have affected Sept. data and should also impact the Oct. numbers; nevertheless, these two indicators have already shown a decreasing trend since Q2.

 

UK: CPI (Sept.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.7%)

  • Inflation has eased from 2.7% y/y to 2.4% y/y, and core inflation from 2.1% y/y to 1.9% y/y.
  • A large decrease in transport costs (sea fares) and lower food inflation have moderated inflation despite a seasonal rebound in clothes.
  • These data remove existing pressure on BoE, but upside risks remain due to tight labor.

 

UK: PPI Input prices (Sept.): 1.3% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 0.5%)

  • A large rebound in fuel prices. Input prices have reached 10.3% y/y after 9.4% y/y the prior month.

 

UK: PPI Output prices (Sept.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Oil prices were up, but at a lower magnitude than input prices; prices have increased from 2.9% y/y to 3.1% y/y.
  • Core output prices have shown a more moderate trend: 0.1% m/m, 2.4% y/y.

 

Eurozone: CPI (Sept.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • The rebound in inflation has been confirmed in Sept., driven by gas, electricity and food prices; yearly trend was up from 2% y/y to 2.1% y/y; core inflation stayed stable at 0.9% y/y.

 

Poland: Industrial production (Sept.): 3.5% m/m vs 5.3% expected (prior: 0.8%)

  • Data are volatile and trend came at the bottom of the 3%-10% y/y range.

 

Russia: PPI (Sept.): 1.3% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Inflation has accelerated over the month after past fall of the currency and mining and manufacturing prices have rebounded.
  • Yearly trend has moderated from 15.3% y/y to 14.4% y/y.

 

Russia: Retail sales (Sept.): 2.2% y/y vs 2.4% expected (prior: 2.8%)

  • Trend has moderated further.

 

Russia: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 4.5% vs 4.7% expected (prior: 4.6%)

  • Unemployed stays on a declining trend.

 

Russia: Real wages (Sept.): 7.2% y/y vs 6.5% expected (prior: 6.8% revised from 7%)

  • Despite acceleration in wages, real disposable income has decreased further, being down by 1.5% y/y after -0.9% y/y.

 

Market insight 16.10.2018

A new record high in US job openings

US: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Manufacturing production has increased by 0.2% m/m after 0.3% m/m the prior month, driven higher by auto production and some equipment goods. The production in utility sector was down over the month.
  • Industrial activity was firmer in Q3 than in Q2, and the impact of hurricanes stayed modest.

 

US: NAHB housing market index (Oct.): 68 vs 66 expected (prior: 67)

  • Sentiment in housing has slightly increased on firmer sales.
  • This could point towards some stabilization after regular erosion since Jan.

 

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Aug.): 7136 vs 6900 expected (prior: 7077 revised from 6939)

  • Job openings stayed on an upward trend. The new acceleration in openings came from business services, education and health sectors. The turnover has also marginally increased.
  • Pressures on wages could remain in place in this environment.

 

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Aug.): 4% as expected (prior: 4%)

  • Claimant count rate was also stable at 2.6%; nevertheless, jobless claims have increased from 14.2 k the prior month to 18.5 k.
  • Despite stable unemployment ratio, unemployed has turned more volatile and slightly on the rise.

 

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Aug.): 2.7% y/y vs 2.6% expected (prior: 2.6%)

  • After a moderation in June, trend in wages is rising again, driven by rises in construction, retail and services.
  • This will fuel the BoE's tightening bias already in place; real wage growth has returned to positive territory.

 

Germany: Zew (Oct.): -24.7 vs -12 expected (prior: -10.6)

  • Expectations and views on current situation have plunged among financial community regarding Germany. This reflects rising concerns on trade and deteriorating domestic political situation.

 

Italy: Industrial orders (Aug.): 4.9% m/m (prior: -2.2% revised from -2.3%)

  • Foreign orders have strongly rebounded, while domestic orders were quite flat over the month. On a yearly basis, foreign orders also drive the trend (11% y/y), while domestic orders are depressed (-7.5% y/y).
  • Total sales were up by 1.2% m/m (driven by foreign sales), and up by 3% y/y.

 

Turkey: Industrial production (Aug.): -1.1% m/m vs -2.4% expected (prior: 3.5%)

  • Production has fallen less than expected, but trend across sectors is diverging.
  • Production in manufacturing was down by 1.5% m/m after the rebound seen in July (3.9% m/m). Yearly trend has moderated from 5.6% y/y in July to 1.7% y/y in Aug.
Market insight 12.10.2018

Marginally lower US consumer confidence, solid EZ industrial production in August

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Oct. Prel.): 99.0 vs 100.5 expected (prior: 100.1)

  • Slightly down (probably as a result of rising gasoline prices), but still very close to a 14-year high.
  • This provides another reason to expect consumer spending growth to remain solid in the near term.

US: Import price index (Sept.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.6%)

  • Y/y: 3.5% vs 3.1% expected (prior: 3.8%)
  • The increase was driven by food and energy prices while the core measure excluding petroleum prices was flat.

Eurozone: Industrial production (Aug.): 1.0% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.7% revised from -0.8%)

  • IP y/y: 0.9% vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from -0.1%)
  • Solid rebound but this comes after two marked drops.
  • Declining PMI new orders suggest lower gains in the coming months.