It’s Investment Outlook season once again: on the theme of “Back to the Future” UBP’s experts are touring Europe between 23 November and 14 December with a series of economic and market analysis conferences and webinars. After a break, they then pick up afresh in January in the Middle East, Asia and on additional dates in Europe. Our Co-CEO of Asset Management & Group CIO Michaël Lok, Group Chief Strategist Norman Villamin, Global Head of Advisory and Asset Allocation Nicolas Laroche, and Chief Economist Patrice Gautry are leading this delegation of experts in presenting our convictions for 2024 to clients and media representatives. To complement the roadshow discussions, we have produced a short brochure available in several languages as well as a series of podcasts detailing the topics covered.
Investment Outlook 2024 podcast series
Tune into our Investment Outlook 2024 podcast series to find out what to expect in the world and the markets in 2024! Our Corporate Communications & Content Manager Robert Wibberley speaks with six of our experts to deep-dive into topics spanning the economic environment the big trends and events affecting it, and our main convictions, as well as risks.
In a Nutshell
After a global recession was avoided following the shocks of 2022–23, economic and geopolitical forces will continue to reshape the foundations of the world order in 2024.
The sharp rise in bond yields after a decade of manipulation by central banks has been the most visible sign of this new era. Indeed, our expectations of 4.5% US Treasury yields seemed fanciful only a year ago but growing fiscal deficits and rising inflation anxiety have created a new, higher floor under global bond markets.
However, this should not prevent bond investors from benefitting in 2024 as central banks suspend their tightening and bring an end to the three-year bond bear market. This pausing cycle will not be like those of the recent past, however, as central banks are set to see their dominance over the economy since the 1990s gradually give way to the growing influence of fiscal policy.
This ‘fiscal dominance’ will both drive economic growth and determine the new winners and losers in economies around the world focused on this major shift in the global order. Transformative technologies will continue to lead the way, with the global energy transition continuing apace.
Geopolitical realignment will continue to feature strongly again in 2024 as US policies driving a rapid diversification of supply chains away from China are likely to create lasting investment opportunities for India and Latin America.
The new landscape also comes with new risks. Kinetic wars will continue alongside the reshuffling of regional power structures in the years ahead. However, the biggest unanticipated risks for 2024 are a return to 2016-style political disorder and stagflation.
With these convictions, explored in our 2024 Outlook, combined with UBP’s active risk management approach, we look forward to working alongside you to preserve and grow your wealth amid this great transition.