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Resumo macroeconómico diário

Sexta-feira 20 Maio
UK: depressed consumer confidence but better than expected retail sales

UK: GFK consumer confidence (May): -40 vs -39 expected (prior: -38)

  • Consumer confidence has declined further, and the index is now well below the low levels reached in 2020.
  • Fall in sentiment was driven by decreasing opinions on both economic and personal financial situation.


UK: Retail sales (Apr.): 1.4% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -1.2% revised from -1.4%)

  • After two negative monthly date, sales have rebounded, driven up by food, clothes and non-specialized stores.
  • The data have shown more resilient trend than expected but deteriorating purchasing power may weigh down on purchases in the future and the BoE will be obliged to continue to hike.


Eurozone: Consumer confidence (May): -21.1 vs -21.5 expected (prior: -22)

  • First estimates have pointed to very modest improvement of consumer confidence, but still close to very depressed levels, in line with the lows seen in Q1-20.


Germany: PPI (Apr.): 2.8% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: 4.9%)

  • Prices have re-accelerated over the month for basic goods and non-durable consumer goods.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 30.9% y/y the prior month to 33.5% y/y.


Poland: Industrial production (Apr.): -11.3% m/m vs -10.9% expected (prior: 18.2%)

  • Strong reversal in industrial activity after the rebound seen the prior month; the fall was broad-based across sectors over the month.


Poland: PPI (Apr.): 1.9%m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 6.6% revised from 4.9%)

  • Monthly rise has slowed down but remained sustained in absolute; energy and electricity costs were still on sustained trend.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further, from 21.9% y/y prior month to 23.3% y/y.


Turkey: Consumer confidence (May): 67.6 (prior: 67.3)

  • Consumer confidence has stabilized at depressed level over the month; opinions have improved on future personal financial situation.
Quinta-feira 19 Maio
US Philly Fed lower than expected

US: Initial jobless claims (May 14): 218k vs 200k expected (prior: 197k revised from 203k)

  • Continuing claims: 1317 k after 1342 k the prior week.


US: Philadelphia Fed. (May): 2.6 vs 15 expected (prior: 17.6)

  • Declining sentiment on both current situation and on the 6-month view, the index was back to the moderate levels seen in the 2018-19 period.
  • Both current and future situation have revealed decreasing views on prices, employment and capex, while new orders and shipments have slightly increased.
  • Slower and volatile activity, with rising uncertainties, should follow the fall seen in the Philly Fed and New York Empire indices.
Quarta-feira 18 Maio
Declining US housing starts, surging UK inflation

US: Housing starts (Apr.): 1724k vs 1756k expected (prior: 1728k revised from 1793k)

  • Building permits have also declined from 1870 k the prior month to 1819 k.
  • Single family houses have declined the most over the month (-7.3% m/m); both sectors have declined in building permits.
  • Rising prices and mortgage rates have put a cap on demand for housing.


UK: CPI (Apr.): 2.5% m/m vs 2.6% expected (prior: 1.1%)

  • Inflation has accelerated on rising electricity cost (49.9% m/m; 32.5% share of total CPI).
  • Besides electricity, energy, water supply, and also food, communication and restaurant prices were on a strong monthly rise.
  • Inflation has reached 9% y/y after 7% y/y prior month; it could remain at high level next months as food and service prices may probably fuel upside pressures on monthly data. The BoE expects a peak at 10% y/y.
  • Strong labor and record inflation high all offer no other choice than hiking further for the BoE.


UK: PPI Input prices (Apr.): 1.1% m/m as expected (prior: 4.6% revised from 5.2%)

  • Pace of increase has moderated, but pressures remain in place; fuel prices were up by 5.6% m/m and manufacturing prices up by 1.7% m/m.
  • Yearly trend has stabilized at 18.6% y/y.


UK: PPI Output prices (Apr.): 2.3% m/m vs 1.1% expected (prior: 1.9% revised from 2%)

  • Besides energy, prices of food and manufactured goods were on the rise.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further from 11.9% y/y prior month to 14% y/y.
  • Underlying pressures from costs remain in place and could maintain CPI inflation at high level next months.


Eurozone: CPI (Apr.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 2.5%)

  • Inflation was confirmed up in line with first estimates; monthly rise was driven by energy, food and services prices.
  • Yearly trend was stable at 7.4% y/y. besides volatile oil prices, food and services prices could fuel upside pressures on monthly figures.
Terça-feira 17 Maio
US: strong retail sales and industrial production, while weakening confidence in housing

US: Retail sales (Apr.): 0.9% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 0.5%)

  • Sales were close to expectations and still sustained; core sales (sales ex autos, building materials, energy and food) were up by 1% m/m and prior month data were strongly revised up, from -0.1% m/m to 1.1% m/m.
  • By sector, sales were strongly up for autos, electronics and clothes while they have declined for building materials, food and gasoline station.
  • Despite surging inflation, consumption still looks resilient probably thanks to savings and positive trend in labor; nevertheless, confidence eased and downside risks could develop when the Fed will accelerate its tightening in June-July.


US: Industrial production (Apr.): 1.1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.9%)

  • Industrial activity was better oriented over the month; production in utilities and in manufacturing was up; within manufacturing (up by 0.8% m/m), activity was driven by autos and machinery sectors. Capacity utilization has increased from 78.2% to 79%.


US: Business inventories (March): 2% m/m vs 1.9% expected (prior: 1.8% revised from 1.5%)

  • Inventories were on the rise in all sectors, while total sales were also on the rise (1.8% m/m after 1.2% m/m prior month).
  • Inventory-to-sales ratio was stable at 1.27.


US: NAHB housing market index (May): 69 vs 75 expected (prior: 77)

  • Sentiment has significantly declined over the month; all components (sales and future demand) were seen lower by professionals.


UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (March): 3.7% vs 3.8% expected (prior: 3.8%)

  • Claimant count rate: 4.1% after 4.2% the prior month; jobless claims: -56.9 k after -81.6 k prior month; employment (3-month average): 83 k after 10 k prior month.
  • Labor remained on a sustained trend. Vacancies remained at a high level, pointing towards further progress despite uncertainties on the outlook.


Eurozone: GDP (Q1-22): 0.3% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Estimates for Q1-22 GDP have been slightly revised up.


France: Unemployment rate (Q1-22): 7.3% vs 7.4% expected (prior: 7.4%)

  • Total unemployment rate has continued to decline over the month.


Poland: GDP (Q1-22): 2.4% q/q vs 1.8% expected (prior: 1.8% revised from 1.7%)

  • Activity was firmer than expected in estimates.
Segunda-feira 16 Maio
Falling business sentiment in manufacturing in New York

US: NY Empire manufacturing (May): -11.6 vs 15 expected (prior: 24.6)

  • Sentiment has decreased more than expected from prior month; on current situation, sentiment has declined on new orders, shipments inventories and prices, but slightly increased for employment.
  • The 6-month view has slightly regained from very low level seen the prior month; views were less depressed on new orders and shipments but decreased on employment and future capex.
  • This study is traditionally highly volatile but pointed this month on renewed weakness in regional activity.


Turkey: Current account (March): -5.5bn USD vs -5.7bn expected (prior: -5.44bn revised from -5.15bn)

  • Trade deficit has increased over the month; current account deficit has increased and foreign reserves have declined further (USD -4.5 bn after USD -2.2 bn the prior month).
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