US: Personal income (Aug.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)
- Revised data shows a weaker pace of wage growth and a lower savings rate this year (3.5% in August, unchanged from July) – not positive for the consumption outlook.
US: Personal spending (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from 0.1%)
- Personal spending increased more than expected in August. Real spending gains were mostly seen in services, while spending on goods fell.
US: Core PCE (Aug.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Core PCE y/y: 4.9% vs 4.7% expected (prior: 4.7% revised from 4.6%)
- PCE deflator (headline inflation): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.1%); 6.2% y/y vs 6.0% expected (prior: 6.4% revised from 6.3%)
- The higher-than-expected core PCE continues to argue for an aggressive tightening from the Fed.
- Inflation should slow in September, but only modestly.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Sept. F): 58.6 vs 59.5 expected (prior: 58.2)
- Current conditions: 59.7 vs 58.9 expected (prior: 58.6)
- Expectations: 58.0 vs 59.9 expected (prior: 58.0)
- Consumer confidence was finally nearly unchanged from the previous month.
- On the positive side, consumer expected prices will climb at an annual rate of 2.7% over the next 5-10 years, the lowest since April 2021.
Eurozone: CPI estimate (Sept.): 10.0% y/y vs 9.7% expected (prior: 9.1%)
- CPI m/m: 1.2% vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.6%)
- Core CPI: 4.8% vs 4.7% expected (prior: 4.3%)
- Inflation was above expectations for the fifth straight month, resulting in the first ever reading of double-digit inflation and adding pressure on the European Central Bank to keep raising interest rates aggressively.
- Energy and food were again the main drivers of inflation, but core inflation also reached an all-time high.
France: CPI (Sept Prel.): -0.5% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.5%)
- CPI y/y: 6.2% vs 6.6% expected (prior: 6.6%)
- Inflation slowed more than expected in France (as in Spain).
France: Consumer spending (Aug.): 0.0% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.9% revised from -0.8%)
- Y/y: -3.8% vs -2.7% expected (prior: -4.6% revised from -4.3%)
- Consumer spending was unchanged in August, but is still down quite meaningfully y/y.
Germany: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 5.5% as expected (prior: 5.5%)
- Unemployment change: +14k vs +20k expected (prior: +26k)
- The labour market slightly softened in August and September, but this is far from dramatic at this stage.
- Vacancies fell by another 11k, which is the fourth decline in a row, but this leaves the level of vacancies at very high levels.
Italy: CPI (Aug.): 1.7% m/m as expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)
- CPI y/y: 9.5% as expected (prior: 9.1%)
- Inflation continued to rise, but in line with expectations.
UK: GDP (Q2 F.): 0.2% q/q vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.8%)
- GDP y/y: 4.4% vs 2.9% expected (prior: 8.7%)
- The UK economy did not contract in Q2 according to the new estimates.
- Private consumption also grew slightly (+0.1 q/q vs -0.2% in the previous estimate).
Switzerland: KOF (Sept): 93.8 vs 85.0 expected (prior: 93.5 revised from 86.5)
- The revised data shows that this leading indicator actually increased in August (instead of a significant decline), which means that it edged marginally higher in September.