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Resumo macroeconómico diário

Sexta-feira 30 Setembro
US core inflation again above expectations

US: Personal income (Aug.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

  • Revised data shows a weaker pace of wage growth and a lower savings rate this year (3.5% in August, unchanged from July) – not positive for the consumption outlook.

US: Personal spending (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from 0.1%)

  • Personal spending increased more than expected in August. Real spending gains were mostly seen in services, while spending on goods fell.

US: Core PCE (Aug.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Core PCE y/y: 4.9% vs 4.7% expected (prior: 4.7% revised from 4.6%)
  • PCE deflator (headline inflation): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.1%); 6.2% y/y vs 6.0% expected (prior: 6.4% revised from 6.3%)
  • The higher-than-expected core PCE continues to argue for an aggressive tightening from the Fed.
  • Inflation should slow in September, but only modestly.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Sept. F): 58.6 vs 59.5 expected (prior: 58.2)

  • Current conditions: 59.7 vs 58.9 expected (prior: 58.6)
  • Expectations: 58.0 vs 59.9 expected (prior: 58.0)
  • Consumer confidence was finally nearly unchanged from the previous month.
  • On the positive side, consumer expected prices will climb at an annual rate of 2.7% over the next 5-10 years, the lowest since April 2021.

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Sept.): 10.0% y/y vs 9.7% expected (prior: 9.1%)

  • CPI m/m: 1.2% vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.6%)
  • Core CPI: 4.8% vs 4.7% expected (prior: 4.3%)
  • Inflation was above expectations for the fifth straight month, resulting in the first ever reading of double-digit inflation and adding pressure on the European Central Bank to keep raising interest rates aggressively.
  • Energy and food were again the main drivers of inflation, but core inflation also reached an all-time high.

France: CPI (Sept Prel.): -0.5% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • CPI y/y: 6.2% vs 6.6% expected (prior: 6.6%)
  • Inflation slowed more than expected in France (as in Spain).

France: Consumer spending (Aug.): 0.0% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.9% revised from -0.8%)

  • Y/y: -3.8% vs -2.7% expected (prior: -4.6% revised from -4.3%)
  • Consumer spending was unchanged in August, but is still down quite meaningfully y/y.

Germany: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 5.5% as expected (prior: 5.5%)

  • Unemployment change: +14k vs +20k expected (prior: +26k)
  • The labour market slightly softened in August and September, but this is far from dramatic at this stage.
  • Vacancies fell by another 11k, which is the fourth decline in a row, but this leaves the level of vacancies at very high levels.

Italy: CPI (Aug.): 1.7% m/m as expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)

  • CPI y/y: 9.5% as expected (prior: 9.1%)
  • Inflation continued to rise, but in line with expectations.

UK: GDP (Q2 F.): 0.2% q/q vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.8%)

  • GDP y/y: 4.4% vs 2.9% expected (prior: 8.7%)
  • The UK economy did not contract in Q2 according to the new estimates.
  • Private consumption also grew slightly (+0.1 q/q vs -0.2% in the previous estimate).

Switzerland: KOF (Sept): 93.8 vs 85.0 expected (prior: 93.5 revised from 86.5)

  • The revised data shows that this leading indicator actually increased in August (instead of a significant decline), which means that it edged marginally higher in September.
Quinta-feira 29 Setembro
Weakening confidence in Eurozone; German inflation estimates above 10% y/y

US: Initial jobless claims (Sept. 24): 193k vs 215k expected (prior: 209k revised from 213k)

  • Continuing claims: 1347 k after 1376 k the prior week.


US: GDP (Q2-22): -0.6% q/q as expected (prior: -1.6%)

  • Global estimates have not changed at GDP level, but a few changes at the sector level in this third and last estimate.
  • Consumption was firmer (2% q/q after 1.5% in previous estimates; 1.3% in Q1) thanks to stronger services (4.6% after 2.1% in Q1).
  • Final estimates were less negative on equipment (-2% vs -2.7% q/q in 2nd estimate, but more negative for residential (-17.8% vs -16.2% q/q).
  • Inventories contribution in Q2 was less negative than initially estimated (-1.9 pp drag in final Q2 data); net exports contribution was revised down but still positive (1.16 pp in Q2 after -0.26 pp in Q1).
  • No major change except a more positive view on Q2 consumption.


Eurozone: Business climate (Sept.): -0.4 vs -0.7 expected (prior: 1 revised from 1.1)

  • Business confidence has decreased less than feared from the prior month.
  • The detailed picture was mixed from the prior month: falling exports, rising prices versus only a modest decrease in sentiment on production and stable views on orders.


Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Sept.): -28.8 as expected (prior: -25)

  • Confidence has deteriorated further from the prior month.
  • A sharp decline in financial situation, economic outlook and rising concerns on inflation and unemployment.


Eurozone: Service confidence (Sept.): 4.9 vs 7 expected (prior: 8.1 revised from 8.7)

  • A sharp fall of confidence in services due to decreasing current and future demand.


Italy: PPI (Aug.): 3.5% m/m (prior: 6.5%)

  • Nondomestic prices were up by 2.8% m/m after 5% m/m the prior month; yearly trend has accelerated further from 45.9% the prior month to 50.5% y/y.


Spain: CPI (Sept.): 0% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Preliminary data have pointed towards no change in prices over the month.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 10.5% y/y the prior month to 9.3% y/y.


Germany: CPI (Sept.): 2.2% m/m vs 1.5% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Inflation has continued to accelerate according to preliminary data; food, energy and clothes prices have shown a large monthly rebound.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further, from 8.8% y/y the prior month to 10.9% y/y.
Quarta-feira 28 Setembro
Further decline in Eurozone consumer confidence

US: Wholesale inventories (Aug.): 1.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Inventories remained on sustained rise in all major sectors over the month, from wholesale to retail sectors.

US: Pending home sales (Aug.): -2% m/m vs -1.5% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -1%)

  • Sales have declined further in all districts, except one (West) over 4.
  • Rising mortgage rates have weighed down on activity.

France: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 79 vs 80 expected (prior: 82)

  • Confidence has declined further on deteriorating financial situation, employment and rising preference for saving.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Oct.): -42.5 vs -39 expected (prior: -36.8 revised from -36.5)

  • Preliminary confidence index has sharply deteriorated from the prior month.
  • Views on financial situation and future incomes have strongly declined from the prior month and willingness to buy has decreased.

Italy: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 94.8 vs 95.1 expected (prior: 98.3)

  • A sharp fall in confidence on deteriorating global and personal situation.

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Sept.): 101.3 vs 102.2 expected (prior: 104 revised from 104.3)

  • A sharp fall in domestic and foreign orders; falling sentiment on current production.

Sweden: Retail sales (Aug.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Sales have contracted, but less than expected; sales of durables goods were negatively impacted by rising rates and high inflation.

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 49.7 vs 53 expected (prior: 57.8 revised from 56.3)

  • Confidence has sharply declined over the month; views on personal financial situation, the economic outlook and unemployment have deteriorated from the prior month.

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Sept.): 110 (prior: 115.7 revised from 116.4)

  • Business sentiment has sharply declined over the month. Nevertheless, the index stayed high, and in the range seen in 2018-19.

Norway: Retail sales (Aug.): 0.7% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: -2% revised from -2.1%).

Terça-feira 27 Setembro
US: better than expected consumer confidence (Conf. Board), Richmond Fed index and new home sales

US: Durable goods orders (Aug.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • A large fall in orders of civil aircrafts, but a rebound in core capital goods orders (non-defense and ex aircraft), up by 1.3% m/m after -0.6% m/m the prior month, due to a rebound in electrical equipment orders (1% m/m after -0.6% m/m).
  • Shipments were up by 0.7% m/m after 0.2% m/m (core capital goods: 0.3% m/m after 0.6% m/m); inventories stayed on a 0.2% m/m trend (core capital goods: 0.3% m/m after 0.4% m/m).

US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (July): 16.06% y/y vs 17.05% expected (prior: 18.66% revised from 18.65%)

  • Prices of houses have declined from the prior month; monthly, prices have contracted for the first time since many months (-0.44% m/m after 0.20% m/m the prior month).
  • All districts, except 2 over 20 districts, have still shown double-digit figures for yearly trend; just have just passed below 10% y/y.
  • Further decline in prices should result from the Fed's strategy.

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Sept.): 108 vs 104.6 expected (prior: 103.6 revised from 103.2)

  • Surprisingly, consumer confidence has rebounded after lows seen in June-July.
  • Sentiment on current conditions has increased from 145.3 the prior month to 149.6, and expectations from 75.8 to 80.3. This index was back to its Feb. level.
  • Views have turned more positive on labor (jobs easy to get) after a fall in June-July. Business conditions and employment were seen as being more positive after a period of weakness.
  • Willingness to buy has increased on autos and major items, while the index remained cautious on houses.
  • Inflation expectations (separate question non included in the index) has declined from 7% to 6.8% y/y.
  • The easing in energy prices and a still sustained trend in job creations and wages have fueled this monthly rebound in confidence; this is not what M. Powell has mentioned regarding the trend expected on the future economy, i.e. pointing towards more pain in the real economy and a rebalancing (slower job creations) labor.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Sept.): 0 vs -10 expected (prior: -8)

  • Business sentiment has improved from the prior month and the index was back to its July level.
  • On both current situation and 6-months views, improving sentiment was seen for shipments, orders, business conditions and capex. Some decline is seen and expected on inflation (both prices paid and received).
  • Views on employment has moderated from the prior month.

US: New home sales (Aug.): 685k vs 600k expected (prior: 532k revised from 511k)

  • Sales were stronger than expected over the month; sales have increased in all 4 districts but driven by strong sales in South district (467 k).
  • Inventories have declined and some correction in prices were seen, up by 8% y/y after 14.9% y/y the prior month (median data) and monthly change was negative (-6.3% m/m).

Eurozone: M3 (Aug.): 6.1% y/y vs 5.4% expected (prior: 5.7% revised from 5.5%)

  • Growth of monetary aggregates has accelerated over the prior month after period of slowdown.
  • M1 growth was up by 6.8% y/y and M2 up by 6.3% y/y after 5.9% y/y prior month.
  • Credit to private sector was up by 5.5% y/y after 5.2% y/y. Withing credit, consumer credit growth (card and housing loans) has shown some slowdown, while credit to non-financial corporates has accelerated regularly since June (up by 7.8% y/y after 6.6% y/y).
  • Most dynamic part of credit to corporate was below 1-year category and up by 18% y/y.

Brazil: CPI (Sept.): -0.37% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.73%)

  • Prices of food, energy-transport and communication have sharply declined over the month; on the opposite, prices of housing, health care and personal expenses remained on sustained monthly change.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 9.6% y/y the prior month to 7.96% y/y.
Segunda-feira 26 Setembro
Germany: further decline in IFO expectations

Germany: IFO (Sept.): 84.3 vs 87 expected (prior: 88.6 revised from 88.5)

  • Business sentiment has deteriorated further over the month. Sentiment has decreased on current situation (index from 97.5 to 94.5), and expectations have sharply fallen (from 80.5 to 75.2).
  • Expectations have reached depressed levels, being close to the lows seen in the Covid period (expectations index at 71.9 in April 2020).
  • By sector, sentiment has dramatically declined from the prior month in all major sectors (manufacturing, services and construction).

Spain: PPI (Aug.): 2.8% m/m (prior: 0.1% revised from 0%)

  • Rises of electricity and gas have pushed up PPI inflation; prices of intermediate and manufacturing goods prices were down over the month.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further, from 40.5% y/y to 41.8% y/y.

Brazil: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 89 (prior: 83.6)

  • Consumer confidence has slightly regained after several months of being in a range,

Brazil: Current account (July): -4136 M$ vs -3250 M$ expected (prior: 1333 M$)

  • While current account deficit has increased over the month, foreign direct investment has increased from USD 5198 M the prior month to USD 7723 M.

Turkey: Industrial confidence (Sept.): 100.2 (prior: 101.4)

  • Business confidence has decreased, being on a declining trend over the past months.
  • Views on orders have decreased while exports were fragile and current production stable.
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