US: Initial jobless claims (March 9): 209k vs 218k expected (prior: 210k revised from 217k)
- Continuing claims: 1811 k after 1794 k.
US: Retail sales (Feb.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -0.8%)
- Sales came weaker than expected and prior month data were revised lower.
- The monthly rebound was centred on autos, electronics, building materials and also gasoline station.
- Sales of furniture and health have contracted.
- Sales ex autos, gasoline, building materials and food (core sales) stayed flat over the month after -0.3% m/m the prior month.
- Based on core sales, momentum has weakened on the consumer side, but Q1 consumption should remain above 2% q/q saar after strong 3% q/q saar in Q4-23.
US: PPI (Feb.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Prices were higher than expected due to strong rebounds in several sectors over the month: energy, food and transport-warehousing services prices were on a more pronounced rise than in past months.
- Core PPI (prices ex energy, food and trade) were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.6% m/m the prior month.
- Yearly trend has accelerated to 1.6% y/y after 1% y/y the prior month and core PPI up by 2.8% y/y after 2.7% y/y the prior month. These data paved the way to another sustained monthly rise on next core PCE, up by more than 0.30% m/m after 0.43% m/m the prior month (2.8% y/y expected).
US: Business inventories (Jan.): 0% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)
- Inventories have increased further for autos but have fallen in manufacturing sector over the month.
Spain: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)
- Inflation has been confirmed on a monthly rebound; prices were lower for housing and clothes, while prices have re-accelerated for transport, hotels and tobacco.
- Yearly trend has declined from 3.5% the prior month to 2.9%, but core inflation has regained from 3.4% prior month to 3.5% y/y.
Sweden: CPI (Feb.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.3%)
- Prices for clothes, health care, transport and leisure have accelerated over the month; inflation ex energy was up by 0.6% m/m after -0.5% m/m the prior month.
- Thanks to base effects, yearly trend has declined further, from 3.3% prior month to 2.5% y/y. and for core inflation from 4.4% to 3.5% y/y.
Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Feb.): 0.1% m/m (prior: -0.5%)
- Prices have declined by 2% y/y after -2.5% y/y the prior month.
UK: RICS house price balance (Feb.): -10% as expected (prior: -19% revised from -18%)
- Sentiment has improved on housing from the prior month.
- New demand has regained over the moth, while professionals remained cautious on future sales and prices.
Brazil: Retail sales (Jan.): 2.4% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -1.5% revised from -1.1%)
- Except fuel and health care products, sales have regained strongly over the month after disappointing numbers in Dec.