US: Retail sales (July): 1.2% m/m vs 2.1% expected (prior: 8.4% revised from 7.5%)
- Prior month data were revised up, while July data came slower than expected.
- Several sectors have shown a still sustained growth pace, even slightly slower than the prior month: electronics, health, clothes, eating and gasoline.
- On the opposite, some pullback was seen in sales for: building materials, auto parts and sport.
- Sales ex building materials, autos and gasoline were up by 1.4% m/m (more than expected at 0.8% m/m), after 6% m/m the prior month (10.4% m/m in May).
- More sector rotation in sales and still decent growth, but some slowdown in its pace: without renewed labor support, it will probably be difficult to remain on a sustained consumption trend.
US: Industrial production (July): 3% m/m as expected (prior: 5.7% revised from 5.4%)
- Another third month of strong rebound in auto production and rising momentum in utility.
- Production in business equipment and material sectors has increased but at a slower pace than in the prior month.
- Momentum remained positive, but with some slowdown in the pace; global activity in the US relies a lot on consumption and related sectors such as autos, meaning than any meaningful slowdown would put total recovery under risky challenges.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Aug.): 72.8 vs 72 expected (prior: 72.5)
- Sentiment has regained after past month fall and was slightly better than expected; the index remained below the June and the March level.
- Sentiment on current conditions has eased for the second month (but less than expected). Expectations have slightly regained after past month fall.
- Details of the index give mixed picture with small rise in concerns on personal financial situation, eroding sentiment on current and future economic situation, changes in rating on current government policy.
- Willingness to buy autos has eroded but demand remained stable on houses.
- Preliminary consumer confidence was more constructive, but details revealed some fragilities that could reverse or improve further during the month and influence the final index.
US: Nonfarm productivity (Q2-20): 7.3% q/q vs 1.5% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.9%)
- Large swings in productivity and unit labor costs (up by 12.2% q/q after 98% q/q) over the quarter; despite the fall in output (-39% q/q), the fall in employee hours was greater (-43% q/q).
US: Business inventories (June): -1.1% m/m as expected (prior: -2.3%)
- Inventories have strongly decreased for autos and retailers, but they increased for other manufacturers.
- Sales were strongly up for the second month (8.5% m/m).
- The inventory/sales ratio has declined from another month and was back to level seen in Feb.-Jan. (at 1.37).
Switzerland: PPI-import prices (July): 0.1% m/m (prior: 0.5%)
- Import prices were up by 0.5% m/m and production prices up by % m/m.
- Yearly trend was less negative, from -3.5% y/y the prior month to -3.3%y/y.
France: CPI (July): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Final data confirmed rebound in prices, mainly due to energy and transport costs, while food prices eased over the month.
- The yearly trend has rebounded from 0.2% y/y the prior month to 0.9% y/y.
Turkey: Industrial production (June): 17.6% m/m vs 4.7% expected (prior: 18% revised from 14.7%)
- Second month of strong rebound in industrial activity in all sectors.
- Production has turned back positive on yearly trend at 0.1% y/y after -19.4% y/y the prior month.
Turkey: Current account (June): -2.9bn USD (prior: -3.8bn)
- Trade deficit has moderated over the month, thanks to firmer rebound in exports,
- After interventions in markets, official reserves declined by7.7 bn over the month.