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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Date
Title
Teaser
mercoledì 22 maggio
UK: headline inflation back to 2% y/y

UK: CPI (Apr.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Inflation has increased, but slightly less than feared; the rebound was driven by housing, transport-energy and communication prices.

  • Headline inflation was up by 2.1% y/y after 1.9% y/y the prior month, while core inflation stayed stable at 1.8% y/y.

 

UK: PPI Input prices (Apr.): 1.1% m/m vs 1.3% expected (prior: -0.8% revised from -0.2%)

  • Commodity and material prices have driven inflation up; headline prices were up by 3.8% y/y after 3.2% y/y the prior month.

 

UK: PPI Output prices (Apr.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.3%)

  • Oil prices were up by 1.3% m/m; yearly trend in prices has slightly moderated from 2.2% y/y the prior month to 2.1% y/y.

  • Inflation pressures remain in place, but are not sufficient to justify any move from the BoE before recovering more visibility from the Brexit issue.

martedì 21 maggio
US: falling existing home sales; less negative consumer confidence in the eurozone

US: Existing home sales (Apr.): 5.19M vs 5.35M expected (prior: 5.21M)

  • Sales of single family houses have decreased by 1% m/m, and inventories have increased over the month.

  • Price of single family houses have rebounded from past month, and up by 3.7% y/y (median prices).

     

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (May): -6.5 vs -7.7 expected (prior: -7.3 revised from -7.9)

  • On preliminary index, sentiment has recovered more than expected from depressed levels. No detail offered in the first estimate.

 

Switzerland: M3 (Apr.): 3.5% y/y vs 3.8% expected (prior: 3.6%)

  • No major change in trend in monetary aggregates; M1 at 5.1% y/y; M2 at 3.6% y/y.

 

Turkey: Consumer confidence (May): 55.3 (prior: 63.5)

  • Confidence has decreased with rising concerns, particularly on the economy and the unemployment.

lunedì 20 maggio
German PPIs on the rise

Germany: PPI (Apr.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • Energy and non-durable consumer goods were up by 1% m/m; core PPIswere up by 0.3% m/m.

  • Trend in PPI has slightly increased from 2.4% y/y to 2.5% y/y; core PPIs were up by 1.3% y/y after 1.2% y/y.

venerdì 17 maggio
US consumer confidence has reached new highs

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (May): 102.4 vs 97.2 expected (prior: 97.2)

  • Sentiment has rebounded on both current situation and expectations. The improvement was driven by rising opinions on personal financial situation, sustained labour market and satisfaction on the government's action. Nevertheless, the willingness to buy large items was mixed across sectors (house, autos), pointing to some cautiousness on spending.

  • The inflation expectations have increased from 2.5% to 2.8% y/y at 1 year and from 2.3% y/y to 2.6% y/y at 5-10 year.

  • The confidence index has recovered and exceeds the highs seen in 2018.

 

Eurozone: CPI (Apr.): 0.7% m/m as expected (prior: 1%)

  • Final estimate has confirmed the monthly rise due to energy, clothes and transport sectors; core inflation has also rebounded by 0.9% m/m.

  • Trend in inflation has increased from1.4% y/y to 1.7% y/y and from 0.8% y/y to 1.3% y/y for core inflation.

  • Inflation is expected to moderate in the next months and to remain in a 1%-1.5% y/y range in future months.

giovedì 16 maggio
US: strong rebound in housing starts

US: Housing starts (Apr.): 1235k vs 1209k expected (prior: 1168k revised from 1139k)

  • Building permits: 1296 k vs 1289 k expected (1288 k past month).
  • Single family and multifamily houses have all rebounded, but only building permits for multifamily houses have regained.
  • Trend has stabilized after very volatile data in past months.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (May): 16.6 vs 9 expected (prior: 8.5)

  • Sentiment has rebounded, mainly on current situation while expectations have barely changed; in details, sentiment on new orders has eased while shipments and employment have slightly increased.

US: Initial jobless claims (May 11): 212k vs 220k expected (prior: 228k)

  • Continuing claims: 1660 k after 1688 k past week.

France: Unemployment rate (Q1-19): 8.7% as expected (prior: 8.8%)

  • Trend in labor remained positive.
Macro economic

The Chief Economist's weekly update

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Analisi 13.05.2019

Trump unconstrained

Spotlight - The Sunday night tweets from the US President not only introduced uncertainty into the ongoing US-China trade negotiations and prospects for future global growth, but should also serve as a reminder to investors of the new, more challenging risk environment facing them looking ahead.