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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

venerdì 22 novembre
US consumer confidence (michigan) edged up, Eurozone PMI manufacturing higher than expected

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov P): 52.2 vs 51.4 expected (prior: 51.3)

  • Sentiment has improved and was supported by sharper and solid expensions in production and new orders.


US: Markit Services PMI (Nov P): 51.6 vs 51 expected (prior: 50.6)

  • As seen in the manufacturing sector, sentiment has rebounded from past month.


US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Nov F): 96.8 vs 95.7 expected (prior: 95.5)

  • Current conditions index has slightly declined while expectations have rebounded.

  • Sentiment has improved on personal finance.

  • Inflation expectations remain unchanged at 2.5% y/y at 1-year but have slightly increased from 2.4% to 2.5% y/y at 5-10y.


Germany: GDP (Q3-19): 0.1% q/q as expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • First estimates of Q3 GDP have been confirmed; consumption has rebounded (0.4% q), as well as construction (1.2%q) and public spending was also stronger (0.8%q) than in Q2; on the opposite, capex was sharply depressed (-2.6%q); net exports contribution was positive thanks to a rebound in exports and has just partly compensated for the negative contribution from declining inventories.

  • German economy was more resilient than expected, thanks to private and public consumption, but the manufacturing sector and the related capex remained weak.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 46.6 vs 46.4 expected (prior: 45.9)

  • Sentiment has moderately increased after the stabilization seen past month; by country, first estimates have pointed towards a significant rebound in France and Germany, suggesting weak or sluggish situation in peripherals.


Eurozone: PMI Services (Mov.): 51.5 vs 52.4 expected (prior: 52.2)

  • Sentiment has disappointed in services; index has stabilized in France after its rebound, while it has eroded in Germany.


UK: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 48.3 vs 48.9 expected (prior: 49.6)

  • Sentiment has weakened further despite prospects of a Brexit with a deal.


UK: PMI Services (Nov.): 48.6 vs 50.1 expected (prior: 50)

  • Sentiment has disappointed with a new fall, passing again below 50.

giovedì 21 novembre
US: improving business sentiment (Philly Fed) and existing home sales

US: Initial jobless claims (Nov.16): 227k vs 218k expected (prior: 227k revised from 225k)

  • Continuing claims: 1695 k after 1692 k past week.


US: Philadelphia Fed. (Nov.): 10.4 vs 6 expected (prior: 5.6)

  • The index has rebounded, but details remained mixed.

  • On current situation, new orders, shipment and employment have eased, while expectations have increased on prices, orders and employment; capex spending has surprisingly moderated on 6-month view.


US: Existing home sales (Oct.): 5.46M vs 5.49M expected (prior: 5.36M revised from 5.38M)

  • Rising trend is in place, but with some volatility; sales of single family houses have regained, but remained below their Aug. level; inventories have decreased.

  • Prices remained sustained, up by 6.2% y/y (median prices).


Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Nov.): -7.2 vs -7.3 expected (prior: -7.6)

  • Flash estimate has shown modest improvement from depressed level. The index was highly volatile over the past quarters.


France: Business confidence (Nov.): 105 as expected (prior: 105)

  • Manufacturing confidence: 100, as expected, after 99 the prior month.

  • Sentiment was slightly less negative on new orders than the prior month; nevertheless, the index remained more negative than the past rebound seen in May and in Sept.


Turkey: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 59.9 (prior: 57)

  • Sentiment has rebounded, driven by improving views on personal situation and economic situation.

mercoledì 20 novembre
Lower energy and basic prices have weighted down on German PPIs

Germany: PPI (Oct.): -0.2% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Prices of basic goods and energy have fallen over the month, while prices were up by modest 0.1% m/m in other sectors.

  • Yearly trend has weakened further from -0.1% y/y the prior month to -0.6% y/y.


Russia: Retail sales (Oct.): 1.6% y/y vs 1% expected (prior: 0.7%)

  • Monthly and yearly trend on sales have both accelerated.


Russia: Real wages (Sept.): 3.1% y/y vs 2.9% expected (prior: 2.4%)

  • Real wage growth has recently accelerated thanks to declining inflation, and has supported firmer consumption.

martedì 19 novembre
Strong rebound of US housing starts and building permits

US: Housing starts (Oct.): 1314k vs 1320k expected (prior: 1266k revised from 1256k)

  • Building permits: 1461 k vs 1385 k expected (1391 k prior month revised from 1387 k).

  • Housing starts have strongly rebounded after past month fall; multifamily houses were volatile in the past months, while single family houses remained on a steady rise.

  • The rebound in building permits was also strong, fueled by the two categories of houses. Housing should remain on a positive trend in Q4 after its rebound in Q3, despite volatile long-term bond yields.


Switzerland: Trade balance (Oct.): 3.5 Bn CHF (prior: 4.05Bn)

  • Real exports: -1.3% m/m; real imports: -2.4% m/m. The trend in exports remained negative, despite temporary rebound past month.


Italy: Industrial orders (Sept.): 1% m/m (prior: 0.8% revised from 1.1%)

  • Orders have regained further on both domestic and foreign sectors; industrial sales were up by 0.2% m/m, only driven by domestic sales.

  • Trend in orders has recovered from -10% y/y the prior month to 0.3% y/y, but trend in sales remained negative.

lunedì 18 novembre
NAHB index edges lower


US: NAHB housing market index (Nov.): 70 vs 71 expected (prior: 71)

  • Homebuilder sentiment eased for the first time in 5 months but is still close its cyclical high (reached in December 2017) after a sustained rebound this year.
  • However, the gauge of builder optimism about sales over the next six months rose to the highest since May 2018 (while current sales component declined).
  • Lot shortages, lack of labor and regulatory constraints remain the main issues for builders while low borrowing costs and a solid job market continue to fuel demand.


Russia: Industrial production (Oct.): 2.6% y/y vs 2.5% expected (prior: 3.0%)

  • Industrial production was up 5.5% m/m in October after +2.7% in September.


Macro economic

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Analisi 20.11.2019

Navigating cross-currents in global equities

Spotlight - Though investor anxiety given the strong rally YTD in global equities is understandable, historically, strong January-October returns have been followed by gains averaging 4.8% in November-December.