Analisi del mercato

Eurozone: CPI (March): 0.8% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Final data were in line with first estimates; energy prices were up by 0.9% m/m (0.5% m/m the prior month), non-energy manufactured good prices up by 1.1% m/m (1.6% m/m prior month) and services up by 0.7% m/m (0.9% m/m prior month). Core inflation was up by 1.1% m/m after 0.7% m/m the prior month.
• Despite sustained monthly rise, the yearly trend has declined from 2.6% y/y the prior month to 2.4% y/y and for core inflation from 3.1% to 2.9% y/y.
• Inflation should decline further and will stay in the 2-2.5% range over the next quarters.

UK: CPI (March): 0.6% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Prices have accelerated over the month for communication, recreation, and hotels prices. Good prices remained limited.
• Yearly trend has declined slightly less than expected, from 3.4% the prior month to 3.2% y/y (3.1% y/y expected).
• Cap on energy prices and base effects should fuel more decline in inflation in the months to come.

UK: PPI Input prices (March): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from -0.4%)

• Fuels prices were down by 3.7% m/m after -0.3% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend remained negative at -2.5% y/y after -2.2% y/y the prior month.

UK: PPI Output prices (March): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Core prices were up by 0.3% m/m after 0.1% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 0.4% the prior month to 0.6% y/y.

Turkey: Current account (Feb.): -3.27bn USD vs -3.7bn expected (prior: -2.52bn revised from -2.56bn)

• Deficit has increased but less than expected over the month.

US: Housing starts (March): 1321k vs 1485k expected (prior: 1549k revised from 1521k)

• Housing starts have surprisingly declined from the prior month.
• Both categories have decreased over the month, driven by multifamily houses (-21% m/m); single family houses were down by 12.4% m/m.
• Building permits have also decreased, but the decline was more pronounced for single family houses (-5.7 % m/m at 973 k) than for multifamily (-1.2% m/m).
• The volatility in data could reflect changes in trend seen in long term bond yields over the past months.

US: Industrial production (March): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.1%)

• The rebound in production was driven by the auto sector (3.1% m/m a second month of rebound) and utility (2% m/m); other sectors remained sluggish (as business equipment being up by 0.1% m/m) or slightly negative over the month.

Germany: Zew (April): 42.9 vs 35.5 expected (prior: 31.7)

• Expectations have strongly rebounded over the month; sentiment on current conditions had only modestly improved from the prior month (index from -80.5 to -79.2).

Germany: Wholesale price (March): 0.2% m/m (prior: -0.1%)

• Yearly trend remained stable at -3 % y/y.

Italy: CPI (March): 1.2% m/m (prior: 0.8%)

• Inflation has strongly rebounded over the month due to double digit rises in prices of clothes (19.4% m/m). Prices for transport and others were also on the rise (0.7% m/m), while those of food and electricity have declined over the month.
• Yearly trend has increased from 0.8% y/y the prior month to 1.2% y/y.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Feb.): 4.2% vs 4% expected (prior: 4% revised from 3.9%)

• Employment was down by 67 k over the month after -18 k the prior month; it was also down by 156 k over the 3-month period vs -89 k the prior period.
• Claimant count was stable at 4% over the month. Jobless claims have increased from 4.1 k the prior month to 10.9 k.
• Vacancies have marginally increased from 910 k to 916k.
• Labor market has shown a more visible deterioration over the recent months.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Feb.): 5.6% y/y vs 5.5% expected (prior: 5.6%)

• Wage growth remained on a stable pace over the month; changes by sector have shown a marginal rise in manufacturing and public ex-finance sectors; on the opposite, wage growth moderated for construction and leisure sectors.
• While wage growth remained on stable pace (but weaker over the past 6 months), trend in labor and unemployment ratio has deteriorated and could weigh on future BoE's decision.

US: Empire manufacturing (Apr): -14.3 vs -5.2 expected (prior: -20.9)

• The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index increased to -14.3 from the previous month's -20.9, yet it fell short of market expectations at -9.0.
• This indicates ongoing contraction in business activity for the fifth consecutive month in New York State, marked by notable declines in new orders and shipments, along with a continued reduction in unfilled orders.
• On the pricing front, input costs saw a moderate uptick in inflation, while selling prices remained steady.

US: Retail sales (Mar): 0.7% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.6%)

• Nominal retail sales in the US experienced a 0.7% increase in March compared to the previous month, surpassing expectations of 0.3% and indicating continued strength in consumer spending, especially when considering the revised 0.9% gain in February.
• The increase was driven by miscellaneous retailers (2.1%), nonstore retailers (2.7%), and gasoline stations (2.1%). Vehicles sales (-0.9%) and clothing (-1.6%) exerted a drag.
• The control-group sales, which are used to calculate the GDP, jumped 1.1% m/m vs. 0.0% the previous month. 0.4% m/m was expected.

US: NAHB housing market index (Apr): 51 as expected (prior: 51)

• NAHB Housing Market Index in the United States remained unchanged at 51 points in April.
   

Eurozone: Industrial production (Feb): 0.8% m/m as expected (prior: -3.0% revised from -3.2%)

• Eurozone industrial output bounced back in February, representing a partial recovery from a revised 3.0% decline in January and aligning with market forecasts.
• The production of capital goods saw a notable increase of 1.2% (vs. -15.5%), while durable consumer goods also showed improvement, rising by 1.4% (vs. -1.2%).
• Output decreased for both energy (-3.0% vs. 0.4%) and non-durable consumer goods (-0.9% vs. -0.2%). On an annual basis, industrial production contracted by 6.4%, extending the 6.6% decline observed in the previous month.

US: Import price index (Mar): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Import price index rose by 0.4%, above expectations, primarily driven by a significant 4.7% surge in fuel prices with higher petroleum prices more than offsetting lower natural gas price.
• Excluding fuels, import prices only saw a marginal increase of 0.1%, falling below anticipated levels.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Apr P): 77.9 vs 79.0 expected (prior: 79.4)

• US consumer sentiment unexpectedly worsens.
• Inflation expectations have risen for both the year ahead (reaching 3.1%, the highest in four months, up from 2.9% in March) and the five-year outlook (at 3%, the highest in six months, up from 2.8%).
• This suggests a level of dissatisfaction with the perceived halt in the slowdown of inflation.

UK: Industrial production (Feb): 1.1% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.2%)

• Industrial production in the UK surged by 1.1%, marking a significant recovery from the revised 0.3% decline in January.
• It represented the most substantial growth in industrial activity since June 2023, primarily fueled by a resurgence in manufacturing production (1.2% vs. -0.2%) and water supply and sewerage (1.9% vs. -2.4%).
• On an annual basis, industrial output soared by 1.4%, accelerating from the 0.3% increase seen in the previous month and surpassing market expectations of a 0.6% rise.
• The British economy expanded 0.1% m/m in February, following an upwardly revised 0.3% m/m rise in January and matching market forecasts. Considering the three months to February, the British GDP grew 0.2%.