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US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov P): 52.2 vs 51.4 expected (prior: 51.3)
Sentiment has improved and was supported by sharper and solid expensions in production and new orders.
US: Markit Services PMI (Nov P): 51.6 vs 51 expected (prior: 50.6)
As seen in the manufacturing sector, sentiment has rebounded from past month.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Nov F): 96.8 vs 95.7 expected (prior: 95.5)
Current conditions index has slightly declined while expectations have rebounded.
Sentiment has improved on personal finance.
Inflation expectations remain unchanged at 2.5% y/y at 1-year but have slightly increased from 2.4% to 2.5% y/y at 5-10y.
Germany: GDP (Q3-19): 0.1% q/q as expected (prior: -0.2%)
First estimates of Q3 GDP have been confirmed; consumption has rebounded (0.4% q), as well as construction (1.2%q) and public spending was also stronger (0.8%q) than in Q2; on the opposite, capex was sharply depressed (-2.6%q); net exports contribution was positive thanks to a rebound in exports and has just partly compensated for the negative contribution from declining inventories.
German economy was more resilient than expected, thanks to private and public consumption, but the manufacturing sector and the related capex remained weak.
Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 46.6 vs 46.4 expected (prior: 45.9)
Sentiment has moderately increased after the stabilization seen past month; by country, first estimates have pointed towards a significant rebound in France and Germany, suggesting weak or sluggish situation in peripherals.
Eurozone: PMI Services (Mov.): 51.5 vs 52.4 expected (prior: 52.2)
Sentiment has disappointed in services; index has stabilized in France after its rebound, while it has eroded in Germany.
UK: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 48.3 vs 48.9 expected (prior: 49.6)
Sentiment has weakened further despite prospects of a Brexit with a deal.
UK: PMI Services (Nov.): 48.6 vs 50.1 expected (prior: 50)
Sentiment has disappointed with a new fall, passing again below 50.
US: Initial jobless claims (Nov.16): 227k vs 218k expected (prior: 227k revised from 225k)
Continuing claims: 1695 k after 1692 k past week.
US: Philadelphia Fed. (Nov.): 10.4 vs 6 expected (prior: 5.6)
The index has rebounded, but details remained mixed.
On current situation, new orders, shipment and employment have eased, while expectations have increased on prices, orders and employment; capex spending has surprisingly moderated on 6-month view.
US: Existing home sales (Oct.): 5.46M vs 5.49M expected (prior: 5.36M revised from 5.38M)
Rising trend is in place, but with some volatility; sales of single family houses have regained, but remained below their Aug. level; inventories have decreased.
Prices remained sustained, up by 6.2% y/y (median prices).
Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Nov.): -7.2 vs -7.3 expected (prior: -7.6)
Flash estimate has shown modest improvement from depressed level. The index was highly volatile over the past quarters.
France: Business confidence (Nov.): 105 as expected (prior: 105)
Manufacturing confidence: 100, as expected, after 99 the prior month.
Sentiment was slightly less negative on new orders than the prior month; nevertheless, the index remained more negative than the past rebound seen in May and in Sept.
Turkey: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 59.9 (prior: 57)
Sentiment has rebounded, driven by improving views on personal situation and economic situation.
Germany: PPI (Oct.): -0.2% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.1%)
Prices of basic goods and energy have fallen over the month, while prices were up by modest 0.1% m/m in other sectors.
Yearly trend has weakened further from -0.1% y/y the prior month to -0.6% y/y.
Russia: Retail sales (Oct.): 1.6% y/y vs 1% expected (prior: 0.7%)
Monthly and yearly trend on sales have both accelerated.
Russia: Real wages (Sept.): 3.1% y/y vs 2.9% expected (prior: 2.4%)
Real wage growth has recently accelerated thanks to declining inflation, and has supported firmer consumption.
US: Housing starts (Oct.): 1314k vs 1320k expected (prior: 1266k revised from 1256k)
Building permits: 1461 k vs 1385 k expected (1391 k prior month revised from 1387 k).
Housing starts have strongly rebounded after past month fall; multifamily houses were volatile in the past months, while single family houses remained on a steady rise.
The rebound in building permits was also strong, fueled by the two categories of houses. Housing should remain on a positive trend in Q4 after its rebound in Q3, despite volatile long-term bond yields.
Switzerland: Trade balance (Oct.): 3.5 Bn CHF (prior: 4.05Bn)
Real exports: -1.3% m/m; real imports: -2.4% m/m. The trend in exports remained negative, despite temporary rebound past month.
Italy: Industrial orders (Sept.): 1% m/m (prior: 0.8% revised from 1.1%)
Orders have regained further on both domestic and foreign sectors; industrial sales were up by 0.2% m/m, only driven by domestic sales.
Trend in orders has recovered from -10% y/y the prior month to 0.3% y/y, but trend in sales remained negative.
US: NAHB housing market index (Nov.): 70 vs 71 expected (prior: 71)
Russia: Industrial production (Oct.): 2.6% y/y vs 2.5% expected (prior: 3.0%)