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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Date
Title
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venerdì 20 aprile
Eurozone: improving consumer confidence

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Apr.): 0.4 vs -0.1 expected (prior: 0.1)

  • Flash estimate for consumer confidence has shown a rebound after regular weakening over the past two months (due to lower sentiment on employment and prices development). More details will be provided next week.
  • This could point towards firmer spending in Q2.

 

Germany: PPI (March): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • PPIs have slightly increased from 1.8% y/y to 1.9% y/y.
  • Prices of energy were on a rising trend.

 

Turkey: Consumer confidence (Apr.): 71.9 (prior: 71.3)

  • Sentiment on current and future economic situation was mixed, but the willingness to spend has slightly increased.

 

giovedì 19 aprile
Mixed Philly Fed business sentiment in the US; declining sales in UK

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Apr.): 23.2 vs 21 expected (prior: 22.3)

  • Sentiment on current situation has slightly increased but the six-month view index has significantly declined from previous highs.
  • Positive view on current situation has been fueled by rising prices paid, employment and average workweek, while shipments and new orders were on the decline.
  • The decline on future view has been fueled by orders, employment and capital expenditure.
  • As the survey is very volatile, it is difficult to really conclude on the underlying trend except a return from previous high level.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Apr. 14): 232k vs 230k expected (prior: 233k)

  • Continuing claims at 1863 k after 1878 k past week.

 

UK: Retail sales (March): -0.5% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.6%)

  • Extraordinary bad weather conditions have weighted down on monthly sales, and the fall was broad-based across sectors.
  • Consumption has weakened in Q1; downside risks remain in place as the political situation has turned more fragile domestically.

 

Poland: Industrial production (March): 11.4% m/m vs 12.4% expected (prior: -2.2%)

  • Technical rebound after the fall past month; the yearly trend has moderated.

 

Poland: PPI (March): 0.4%m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.3%)

  • PPIs have rebounded from -0.1% y/y to 0.3% y/y.
mercoledì 18 aprile
Inflation trend: declining in UK, on a moderate rise in the Eurozone

Eurozone: CPI (March): 1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Final inflation was finally lower than in first estimate: 1.3% y/y vs 1.4% y/y expected and 1.1% y/y past month.
  • Core inflation was stable (1% y/y), in line with estimate.
  • Ahead of the ECB meeting, inflation figures will comfort some ECB members (M. Draghi and Praet) in favour of a delayed end of QE and still the need of monetary support.

 

UK: CPI (March): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Inflation trend has continued to ease: 2.5% y/y after 2.7% y/y prior month. Core CPI has eased in parallel (2.3% y/y from 2.4% y/y).
  • Upwards pressures on prices of food, clothes and leisure were compensated by lower prices of household apparels, transport and alcohol.
  • Inflation is easing and coming back closer to official target, as expected, after the rise due to oil prices and weak GBP past year. Nevertheless, the BoE should remain vigilant and there is still a high probability of a rate hike in May.

 

UK: PPI Input prices (March): -0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -1.1%)

  • Yearly trend in prices has rebounded from 3.8% y/y to 4.2% y/y.
  • Rises in energy and metals prices have been more than compensated by flat or declining prices in the other sectors over the month.

 

UK: PPI Output prices (March): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0%)

  • Output prices have moderated from 2.6% y/y to 2.4% y/y.

 

Italy: Industrial orders (Feb.): -0.6% m/m (prior: -4.6% revised from -4.5%)

  • Industrial sales were slightly better oriented: +0.5% m/m after -2.9% m/m prior month.
  • Momentum still looks fragile in industrial activity.

 

Russia: Retail sales (March): 2% y/y vs 2.1% expected (prior: 1.8%)

  • Consumption was on a table trend thanks to rising disposable income ahead of elections.
  • Sanctions and potential rebound of inflation due to volatile currency may put the fragile recovery at risk.

 

Russia: Disposable income (real) (March): 4.1% y/y vs 3.1% expected (prior: 4.3% revised from 4.4%)

  • Real wages were up by 6.5% y/y; decline in inflation and rising wages ahead of elections have underpinned revenues and consumption growth.

 

Russia: Unemployment rate (March): 5% as expected (prior: 5%)

martedì 17 aprile
US IP and housing starts slightly above expectations

US: Industrial production (March): 0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 1.1%)

  • Manufacturing production: 0.1% as expected (prior: 1.5% revised from 1.2%)
  • The rise in industrial production reflects a sharp rebound in natural gas utilities (+15.6%), as well as increases in mining (+1.0%) and motor vehicle output (+2.7%).

US: Housing starts (Mar): 1319k vs 1267k expected (prior: 1295k revised from 1236k)

  • Building permits: 1354k vs 1321k expected (prior: 1321k revised from 1298k)
  • The improvement (and upward revisions) was led by the volatile multifamily category while single-family starts and permits both declined.

 

Germany: Zew (April): -8.2 vs -1.0 expected (prior: 5.1)

  • Current situation: 87.9 vs 88.0 expected (prior: 90.7)
  • The headline index fell to its lowest level since November 2012, probably reflecting protectionism fears and some recent disappointing economic data.

 

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Feb.): 4.2% vs 4.3% expected (prior: 4.3%)

  • Jobless claims change (March): +11.6k after +15.1k (revised from +9.2k)
  • The unemployment rate fell to a new low.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Feb.): 2.8% y/y vs 3.0% expected (prior: 2.8%)

  • Ex bonus: 2.8% as expected (prior: 2.6%)
  • The acceleration in core earnings supports the case for a rate hike in May.

 

lunedì 16 aprile
Mixed retail sales in the US

US: Retail sales (March): 0.6% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • Ex auto: 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)
  • Ex auto & gas: 0.3% vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.3%)
  • This end-of-month rebound in retail sales is reassuring, even though it is largely the result of a 2% m/m jump in auto sales.
  • Severe winter weather appeared to weigh on sales in some categories, including building materials (-0.6%).
  • This confirms that, in spite of the tax cuts, private consumption was soft in Q1. Nevertheless, solid consumer confidence and a very strong labour market should give way to a rebound in Q2.

 

US: NAHB housing market index (April): 69 vs 70 expected (prior: 70)

  • Slightly down for the fourth consecutive month, but still close to cyclical highs. Builders are increasingly facing supply-side constraints (lack of buildable lots) and rising construction material costs.

 

US: Empire manufacturing (April): 15.8 vs 18.4 expected (prior: 22.5)

  • This (volatile) index fell slightly more than expected. Both the short- and medium- (6-month) outlook was down relative to last month. The general business conditions index for the next 6 months fell to its lowest level in more than two years.
  • Trade tensions are probably not unrelated to this decline in confidence.
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Analisi 16.04.2018

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