1. Newsroom
  2. Prospettive d'investimento 2°T 2017
Menu
Analisi 20.04.2017

Prospettive d'investimento 2°T 2017

Prospettive d'investimento 2°T 2017

La crescita globale prosegue la sua avanzata nel T2, trainata dalla tendenza positiva in atto negli Stati Uniti, dalla vivace attività in Asia e da prospettive più rassicuranti per l’Eurozona. La crescita appare sostenuta e sincronizzata nelle principali regioni, grazie a un’attività più solida nel settore manifatturiero e alla tendenza positiva dei consumi.


Sintesi

  • Si conferma la crescita globale sincronizzata e sostenuta, nonostante le incertezze politiche 
  • La BCE dovrebbe seguire la Fed adottando un corso di politica monetaria più neutrale nel 2° semestre del 2017 
  • L’inflazione primaria si sta avvicinando al 2% nelle principali regioni del mondo, ma nei prossimi mesi dovrebbe stabilizzarsi nell’Eurozona 
  • I rischi di inflazione negli Stati Uniti rimangono orientati al rialzo sulla scia della crescita salariale e dei potenziali tagli alle tasse 
  • Il debito emergente in valuta forte remunera piuttosto bene gli investitori rispetto ad altri strumenti del reddito fisso dei paesi sviluppati che hanno valutazioni elevate 
  • La normalizzazione della politica monetaria della BCE dovrebbe provocare un aumento della volatilità sui tassi della zona euro 
  • Le valutazioni azionarie elevate su scala globale sono indotte in primo luogo da valutazioni storicamente alte negli Stati uniti 
  • Le azioni Giapponesi, dei mercati emergenti e, in misura minore, dell’Europa presentano opportunità relativamente migliori rispetto alle azioni statunitensi 
  • I mercati dell’Eurozona ritengono poco probabile una vittoria populista alle elezioni francesi nelle prossime settimane 
  • Le strategie alternative, incluse quelle sui premi per il rischio e «market neutral», sono sempre più interessanti considerando le valutazioni elevate delle azioni e del reddito fisso

La crescita negli Stati Uniti in linea con il trend, in attesa di riforme di bilancio

La crescita statunitense dovrebbe rimanere sul trend del 2%-2.5% grazie ai consumi vivaci e ai livelli elevati di fiducia delle imprese nel settore manifatturiero e in quello dei servizi. I fondamentali si confermano positivi per i consumatori, dal momento che l’economia è prossima alla piena occupazione e il mercato immobiliare appare in buona salute. La migliorata fiducia si prevede tuttora che dalla politica di bilancio scaturiscano riforme in grado di stimolare l’attività. Tuttavia, nonostante la maggioranza repubblicana al Congresso e un nuovo presidente alla Casa Bianca, non è stato raggiunto alcun accordo sulla riforma dell’Obamacare e le decisioni in merito alle misure fiscali sono state posticipate. L’impatto macroeconomico di un taglio alle tasse sui privati e sulle imprese potrebbe rivelarsi soltanto nel 2018.

Dal momento che la crescita statunitense sembra già vicina al suo potenziale, i rischi associati a forti stimoli fiscali riguardano l’inflazione, con l’accentuarsi delle pressioni salariali e l’aumento del deficit pubblico e commerciale. Se gli incentivi di bilancio saranno inferiori alle attese, la crescita statunitense dovrebbe rimanere sul trend del 2%-2.5% e i rischi di surriscaldamento potrebbero essere limitati. È dunque presumibile che la Fed continui a normalizzare gradualmente la sua politica, con altri due aumenti dei tassi previsti nei prossimi trimestri.p>

Paesi emergenti: export e consumi i principali propulsori

La crescita in Cina dovrebbe stabilizzarsi attorno al 6.5% grazie a una forte economia dei consumi e agli investimenti globali. Dopo l’incontro tra Trump e Xi Jinping si sono alleggeriti i timori di una «guerra fredda» sul commercio e sui cambi tra le due grandi potenze economiche. Nel frattempo la Cina continua a stringere i freni della politica monetaria nell’intento di ripulire il settore bancario, impedire altre bolle speculative nel mercato immobiliare e stabilizzare i flussi di capitali.

Tra i mercati emergenti l’Asia continua a presentare le prospettive più interessanti grazie alla Cina e all’India. La situazione economica di Brasile e Russia è leggermente migliorata, ma la volatilità dei prezzi delle materie prime e l’instabilità politica rallentano l’uscita dalla recessione. Inoltre, i recenti sviluppi geopolitici in Medio Oriente hanno ridotto la probabilità di un alleggerimento delle sanzioni contro la Russia.

Caricare il PDF delle Prospettive d'investimento 2°T 2017

LOK Michael.jpg

Michaël Lok
Group CIO and Co-CEO Asset Management

Norman Villamin-1.jpg

Norman Villamin
CIO Private Banking

GAUTRY_Patrice_UBP_72dpi-9511.jpg

Patrice Gautry
Chief Economist


Newsletter

Sign up to receive UBP’s latest news & investment insights directly in your inbox

Click and enter your email address to subscribe

Investimenti responsabili

Creare valore con investimenti responsabili

Maggiori informazioni sugli investimenti responsabili

Guardate il video

Le news più lette

Market insight 22.06.2018

Decreasing business sentiment in manufacturing reflects rising concerns on trade

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (June): 54.6 vs 56.1 expected (prior: 56.4)

  • A sharp fall in new orders has driven the index lower than expected; as seen in the eurozone, this could reflect rising concerns from the trade policy and the risks of protectionism.

 

US: Markit Services PMI (June): 56.5 as expected (prior: 56.8)

  • Sentiment has eroded from past month, but was in line with expectations.

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (June): 55 as expected (prior: 55.5)

  • Flash estimate index has weakened further from the prior month; this fall probably reflects rising concerns over trade dispute and related lower prospects on exports.

 

Eurozone: PMI Services (June): 55 vs 53.8 expected (prior: 53.8)

  • Sentiment has rebounded in services from the prior month.
  • Combined services and manufacturing index has slightly rebounded from the prior month, offering hopes of a stabilization of the eurozone activity during Q2 if concerns on trade ease somewhat.

 

Poland: M3 (May): 1.3% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • M3 was up by 6.6% y/y from 5.7% y/y the prior month.
Market insight 20.06.2018

Late cycle signals in US housing

US: Existing home sales (May): 5.43M vs 5.42M expected (prior: 5.45M revised from 5.46M)

  • Sales of single family houses have moderated over the past two months and inventories have increased; prices remain on a high pace (5.2% y/y median prices).
  • The various recently published indicators on housing were all mixed and, besides some volatility on a monthly basis, they point towards a late cycle in housing.

 

Sweden: Consumer confidence (June): 96.8 vs 100 expected (prior: 97.9 revised from 98.5)

  • A weakening sentiment on present and future economic situation mainly explains the lower trend seen on confidence over the past two months.

 

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (June): 116.1 vs 116 expected (prior: 118.5 revised from 118.6)

  • After a rebound in April, sentiment is weakening again.

 

Germany: PPI (May): 0.5% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Energy and core prices have rebounded over the month.
  • Yearly trend was up from 1.9% y/y to 2.8% y/y (prices less energy up from 1.5% y/y to 1.8% y/y).

 

Russia: Retail sales (May): 2.4% y/y vs 2.3% expected (prior: 2.7% revised from 2.4%)

  • A rebound in sales in May; a stable trend in yearly figures.

 

Russia: Real wages (May): 7.3% y/y vs 7.5% expected (prior: 7.6% revised from 7.8%)

  • Real disposable income was weak, up only by 0.3% y/y.

 

Russia: Unemployment rate (May): 4.7% vs 4.9% expected (prior: 4.9%)

  • A declining trend from the 5.2% level in January.
Market insight 19.06.2018

US housing starts have reached a new high

US: Housing starts (May): 1350k vs 1311k expected (prior: 1286k revised from 1287k)

  • Building permits: 1301 k vs 1350 k expected (1364 k prior month).
  • A strong rebound in housing starts (concentrated in one region), but weak permits point towards some moderation in housing starts in the coming months.
  • Demand in housing remains strong but it could be limited by rising construction costs, higher mortgage rates and rising house prices.

 

Sweden: Unemployment rate (May): 6.1% vs 6.3% expected (prior: 6.3%)

  • Unemployed has decreased and rate is coming back to low levels.

 

Poland: Industrial production (May): 1.6% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -6.8%)

  • All major sectors have rebounded except electricity and gas; manufacturing sector was up by 2.4% m/m.
  • The yearly trend has moderated from 9.3% y/y the prior month to 5.4% y/y.

 

Poland: PPI (May): 1.1%m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Prices of mining were up by 2.1% m/m, up by 6.1% y/y.
  • Trend in prices has accelerated from 1% y/y to 2.8% y/y, mainly due to higher energy prices.

 

Russia: PPI (May): 3.9% m/m vs 1.3% expected (prior: 1.2%)

  • Rises in energy prices and changes in currency have fueled the rebound in PPIs.
  • Yearly trend was up by 12.5% y/y after 7.5% y/y prior month.

Altro da leggere

Market insight 22.06.2018

Decreasing business sentiment in manufacturing reflects rising concerns on trade

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (June): 54.6 vs 56.1 expected (prior: 56.4)

  • A sharp fall in new orders has driven the index lower than expected; as seen in the eurozone, this could reflect rising concerns from the trade policy and the risks of protectionism.

 

US: Markit Services PMI (June): 56.5 as expected (prior: 56.8)

  • Sentiment has eroded from past month, but was in line with expectations.

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (June): 55 as expected (prior: 55.5)

  • Flash estimate index has weakened further from the prior month; this fall probably reflects rising concerns over trade dispute and related lower prospects on exports.

 

Eurozone: PMI Services (June): 55 vs 53.8 expected (prior: 53.8)

  • Sentiment has rebounded in services from the prior month.
  • Combined services and manufacturing index has slightly rebounded from the prior month, offering hopes of a stabilization of the eurozone activity during Q2 if concerns on trade ease somewhat.

 

Poland: M3 (May): 1.3% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • M3 was up by 6.6% y/y from 5.7% y/y the prior month.
Market insight 20.06.2018

Late cycle signals in US housing

US: Existing home sales (May): 5.43M vs 5.42M expected (prior: 5.45M revised from 5.46M)

  • Sales of single family houses have moderated over the past two months and inventories have increased; prices remain on a high pace (5.2% y/y median prices).
  • The various recently published indicators on housing were all mixed and, besides some volatility on a monthly basis, they point towards a late cycle in housing.

 

Sweden: Consumer confidence (June): 96.8 vs 100 expected (prior: 97.9 revised from 98.5)

  • A weakening sentiment on present and future economic situation mainly explains the lower trend seen on confidence over the past two months.

 

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (June): 116.1 vs 116 expected (prior: 118.5 revised from 118.6)

  • After a rebound in April, sentiment is weakening again.

 

Germany: PPI (May): 0.5% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Energy and core prices have rebounded over the month.
  • Yearly trend was up from 1.9% y/y to 2.8% y/y (prices less energy up from 1.5% y/y to 1.8% y/y).

 

Russia: Retail sales (May): 2.4% y/y vs 2.3% expected (prior: 2.7% revised from 2.4%)

  • A rebound in sales in May; a stable trend in yearly figures.

 

Russia: Real wages (May): 7.3% y/y vs 7.5% expected (prior: 7.6% revised from 7.8%)

  • Real disposable income was weak, up only by 0.3% y/y.

 

Russia: Unemployment rate (May): 4.7% vs 4.9% expected (prior: 4.9%)

  • A declining trend from the 5.2% level in January.
Market insight 19.06.2018

US housing starts have reached a new high

US: Housing starts (May): 1350k vs 1311k expected (prior: 1286k revised from 1287k)

  • Building permits: 1301 k vs 1350 k expected (1364 k prior month).
  • A strong rebound in housing starts (concentrated in one region), but weak permits point towards some moderation in housing starts in the coming months.
  • Demand in housing remains strong but it could be limited by rising construction costs, higher mortgage rates and rising house prices.

 

Sweden: Unemployment rate (May): 6.1% vs 6.3% expected (prior: 6.3%)

  • Unemployed has decreased and rate is coming back to low levels.

 

Poland: Industrial production (May): 1.6% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -6.8%)

  • All major sectors have rebounded except electricity and gas; manufacturing sector was up by 2.4% m/m.
  • The yearly trend has moderated from 9.3% y/y the prior month to 5.4% y/y.

 

Poland: PPI (May): 1.1%m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Prices of mining were up by 2.1% m/m, up by 6.1% y/y.
  • Trend in prices has accelerated from 1% y/y to 2.8% y/y, mainly due to higher energy prices.

 

Russia: PPI (May): 3.9% m/m vs 1.3% expected (prior: 1.2%)

  • Rises in energy prices and changes in currency have fueled the rebound in PPIs.
  • Yearly trend was up by 12.5% y/y after 7.5% y/y prior month.