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Market insight 07.12.2018

US labor: positive underlying trend despite slower than expected monthly job creations

US labor: positive underlying trend despite slower than expected monthly job creations

US: Non-farm payrolls (Nov.): 155k vs 198k expected (prior: 237k revised from 250k)

  • Data were below expectations and past month data have been revised slightly lower; the 3-month average is now at 170 k, still in line with a 2.5%-3% growth trend.
  • By sector, job creations offered a mixed picture across sectors: the good news were a stable trend in manufacturing, sustained numbers in retail (internet sales and delivery) and in education-health; the negative surprises came from creations below trend in temporary business, finance, information and in public sectors. The volatility in sectors could also be related with extraordinary events (weather, fires..) and it is too early to interpret it as a reversal in trend.
  • The unemployment rate was stable at 3.7%; alternative measure to unemployment has slightly increased in relation with lower creation in the temporary sector.
  • Wages growth has been slightly revised lower on a monthly basis (0.2% m/m in Nov. and 0.15% m/m in Oct.), but the yearly trend remains unchanged around 3% y/y.
  • Despite monthly volatility, trend remains positive in labor; the activity and job creations have probably passed a peak and growth in Q4 is expected at a slower pace than in Q3; these monthly numbers are far from being early signal of any recession and the Fed should normally hike its rates in next Dec.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Dec.): 97.5 vs 97 expected (prior: 97.5)

  • Views on current situation have rebounded, while expectations have slightly moderated with lower prospects of future employment. Willingness to consumer remained at a high level for large items.
  • Inflation expectations have eased a bit (2.7% y/y from 2.8% y/y at one year; 2.4% y/y from 2.6% y/y at 5 year).
  • Consumption is expected to remain on firm trend.

 

US: Wholesale inventories (Oct.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.7%)

  • Inventories have increased significantly for autos, computers and machines; total sales have moderated, being down by 0.2% m/m. Sales-to-inventory ratio is now on an increasing trend.

 

Norway: Industrial production (Oct.): 2.3% m/m (prior: -2% revised from -1.5%)

  • Manufacturing production has rebounded from -0.3% m/m past month to 1.5% m/m. The rebound in production was driven by energy, food and basic materials.
  • Contrary to some other countries, trend in production is rising.

 

France: Industrial production (Oct.): 1.2% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -1.6% revised from -1.8%)

  • The production in the auto sector has rebounded and activity has also regained in other sectors.
  • Nevertheless, yearly trend remained negative: -0.7% y/y for total production; -1.3% y/y for manufacturing sector.

 

Germany: Industrial production (Oct.): -0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

  • While production in capital goods was up by only 0.3% m/m, the activity in the other sectors was negative, particularly in consumer goods and energy (-3.% m/m in both sectors).
  • Yearly trend has turned more volatile in past months but it has rebounded from 0.1% y/y prior month o 1.6% y/y.

 

Brazil: CPI (Nov.): -0.21% m/m vs -0.09% expected (prior: 0.45%)

  • Prices of housing, clothes, transport and health have declined over the month. Yearly trend has moderated from 4.56% y/y to 4.05% y/y, being closer to central bank target.


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Market insight 06.12.2018

Unexpected increase in US ISM non-manufacturing index

US: ISM Non manufacturing (Nov.): 60.7 vs 59.0 expected (prior: 60.3)

  • Unexpected increase, to less than a point from the cycle high.
  • The most forward looking components (business activity and new orders) both increased. On the other hand, the employment component and the new export orders index edged lower.

US: ADP Employment change (Nov.): 179k vs 195k expected (prior: 225k revised from 227k)

  • Some softening in job growth after a very strong print in October. The same is expected for non-farm payrolls tomorrow (consensus at 195k after 250k).

US: Initial jobless claims (Dec. 1): 231k vs 225k expected (prior: 235k revised from 234k)

  • Jobless claims have been on a rising trend over the past two and a half months but stabilized last week.

US: Factory orders (Oct.): -2.1% m/m vs -2.0% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.7%)

  • Close to consensus expectations but details of the report were slightly weaker with core capital goods category showing downward revisions to September growth.

US: Trade balance (Oct.): -55.5 bn USD vs -55.0 bn expected (prior: -54.6 bn revised from -54.0 bn)

  • This widening in the trade deficit was mainly driven by a further plunge in exports to China, and suggests that net trade will once again be a drag on GDP growth in Q4.

 

Germany: Factory orders (Oct.): 0.3% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.3%)

  • Y/y: -2.7% vs -3.1% expected (prior: -2.6%)
  • Factory orders unexpectedly rose for a third month, offering some hopes for a recovery after the economy contracted in Q3.

 

Russia: CPI (Nov.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • CPI y/y: 3.8% as expected (prior: 3.5%)
  • Core CPI: 0.4% vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.4%); 3.4% y/y as expected (prior: 3.1%)
  • Inflation accelerated for the 5th consecutive month, which leaves the door open to an interest rate hike next week.

 

Market insight 04.12.2018

Depressed sales figures in UK

UK: BRC retail sales (Nov.): -0.5% y/y vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • After stabilization past month, sales have fallen with rising uncertainties on Brexit and on domestic political situation.
  • Risks could weigh on the activity ahead of the vote in Parliament (scheduled by 11th Dec.).

 

Switzerland: CPI (Nov.): -0.3% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Except a rise in oil prices (0.6% m/m), the monthly fall was broad based across sectors; prices of goods, including food, and services have fallen over the month.
  • Yearly trend has settled below 1% y/y (at 0.9% y/y), and core inflation has eased, from 0.8% y/y to 0.5% y/y.

 

Eurozone: PPI (Nov.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)

  • Energy prices remained firm (2.7% m/m; 14.6% y/y); ex energy, prices were flat over the month, and up by a mere 1.5% y/y.

 

Brazil: Industrial production (Oct.): 0.2% m/m vs 1.1% expected (prior: -1.8%)

  • After regular fall over the past 3 months, production has just stabilized in October, and yearly comparison has turned positive (1.1% y/y after -2.2% y/y the prior month).
  • Production of durable consumer goods and capital goods has recovered after severe fall past month, but production stayed in contraction in other sectors.

 

Market insight 05.12.2018

Encouraging retail sales but soft services PMI in the eurozone

Eurozone: PMI Services (Nov F): 53.4 vs 53.1 expected (prior: 53.7)

  • Germany: 53.3 as expected (prior: 54.7)
  • France: 55.1 vs 55 expected (prior: 55)
  • Italy: 50.3 vs 49.3 expected (prior: 49.2)
  • Spain: 54 vs 53.9 expected (prior: 54)
  • Sentiment has slightly decreased; it has declined in Germany, but it has sharply risen in Italy.

Eurozone: Retail sales (Oct): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from 0%)

  • On a y/y basis: 1.7% vs 2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.8%).
  • The rebound in retail sales painted a more positive picture. Food, drink and tobacco prices rose by 0.6% m/m, while textiles prices have rebounded by 0.8% m/m (prior:-3.8%).

UK: PMI Services (Nov F): 50.4 vs 52.5 expected (prior: 52.2)

  • Sentiment has sharply declined and came close to contraction.

Altro da leggere

Market insight 06.12.2018

Unexpected increase in US ISM non-manufacturing index

US: ISM Non manufacturing (Nov.): 60.7 vs 59.0 expected (prior: 60.3)

  • Unexpected increase, to less than a point from the cycle high.
  • The most forward looking components (business activity and new orders) both increased. On the other hand, the employment component and the new export orders index edged lower.

US: ADP Employment change (Nov.): 179k vs 195k expected (prior: 225k revised from 227k)

  • Some softening in job growth after a very strong print in October. The same is expected for non-farm payrolls tomorrow (consensus at 195k after 250k).

US: Initial jobless claims (Dec. 1): 231k vs 225k expected (prior: 235k revised from 234k)

  • Jobless claims have been on a rising trend over the past two and a half months but stabilized last week.

US: Factory orders (Oct.): -2.1% m/m vs -2.0% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.7%)

  • Close to consensus expectations but details of the report were slightly weaker with core capital goods category showing downward revisions to September growth.

US: Trade balance (Oct.): -55.5 bn USD vs -55.0 bn expected (prior: -54.6 bn revised from -54.0 bn)

  • This widening in the trade deficit was mainly driven by a further plunge in exports to China, and suggests that net trade will once again be a drag on GDP growth in Q4.

 

Germany: Factory orders (Oct.): 0.3% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.3%)

  • Y/y: -2.7% vs -3.1% expected (prior: -2.6%)
  • Factory orders unexpectedly rose for a third month, offering some hopes for a recovery after the economy contracted in Q3.

 

Russia: CPI (Nov.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • CPI y/y: 3.8% as expected (prior: 3.5%)
  • Core CPI: 0.4% vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.4%); 3.4% y/y as expected (prior: 3.1%)
  • Inflation accelerated for the 5th consecutive month, which leaves the door open to an interest rate hike next week.

 

Market insight 05.12.2018

Encouraging retail sales but soft services PMI in the eurozone

Eurozone: PMI Services (Nov F): 53.4 vs 53.1 expected (prior: 53.7)

  • Germany: 53.3 as expected (prior: 54.7)
  • France: 55.1 vs 55 expected (prior: 55)
  • Italy: 50.3 vs 49.3 expected (prior: 49.2)
  • Spain: 54 vs 53.9 expected (prior: 54)
  • Sentiment has slightly decreased; it has declined in Germany, but it has sharply risen in Italy.

Eurozone: Retail sales (Oct): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from 0%)

  • On a y/y basis: 1.7% vs 2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.8%).
  • The rebound in retail sales painted a more positive picture. Food, drink and tobacco prices rose by 0.6% m/m, while textiles prices have rebounded by 0.8% m/m (prior:-3.8%).

UK: PMI Services (Nov F): 50.4 vs 52.5 expected (prior: 52.2)

  • Sentiment has sharply declined and came close to contraction.
Market insight 04.12.2018

Depressed sales figures in UK

UK: BRC retail sales (Nov.): -0.5% y/y vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • After stabilization past month, sales have fallen with rising uncertainties on Brexit and on domestic political situation.
  • Risks could weigh on the activity ahead of the vote in Parliament (scheduled by 11th Dec.).

 

Switzerland: CPI (Nov.): -0.3% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Except a rise in oil prices (0.6% m/m), the monthly fall was broad based across sectors; prices of goods, including food, and services have fallen over the month.
  • Yearly trend has settled below 1% y/y (at 0.9% y/y), and core inflation has eased, from 0.8% y/y to 0.5% y/y.

 

Eurozone: PPI (Nov.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)

  • Energy prices remained firm (2.7% m/m; 14.6% y/y); ex energy, prices were flat over the month, and up by a mere 1.5% y/y.

 

Brazil: Industrial production (Oct.): 0.2% m/m vs 1.1% expected (prior: -1.8%)

  • After regular fall over the past 3 months, production has just stabilized in October, and yearly comparison has turned positive (1.1% y/y after -2.2% y/y the prior month).
  • Production of durable consumer goods and capital goods has recovered after severe fall past month, but production stayed in contraction in other sectors.