US labor: positive underlying trend despite slower than expected monthly job creations
US: Non-farm payrolls (Nov.): 155k vs 198k expected (prior: 237k revised from 250k)
- Data were below expectations and past month data have been revised slightly lower; the 3-month average is now at 170 k, still in line with a 2.5%-3% growth trend.
- By sector, job creations offered a mixed picture across sectors: the good news were a stable trend in manufacturing, sustained numbers in retail (internet sales and delivery) and in education-health; the negative surprises came from creations below trend in temporary business, finance, information and in public sectors. The volatility in sectors could also be related with extraordinary events (weather, fires..) and it is too early to interpret it as a reversal in trend.
- The unemployment rate was stable at 3.7%; alternative measure to unemployment has slightly increased in relation with lower creation in the temporary sector.
- Wages growth has been slightly revised lower on a monthly basis (0.2% m/m in Nov. and 0.15% m/m in Oct.), but the yearly trend remains unchanged around 3% y/y.
- Despite monthly volatility, trend remains positive in labor; the activity and job creations have probably passed a peak and growth in Q4 is expected at a slower pace than in Q3; these monthly numbers are far from being early signal of any recession and the Fed should normally hike its rates in next Dec.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Dec.): 97.5 vs 97 expected (prior: 97.5)
- Views on current situation have rebounded, while expectations have slightly moderated with lower prospects of future employment. Willingness to consumer remained at a high level for large items.
- Inflation expectations have eased a bit (2.7% y/y from 2.8% y/y at one year; 2.4% y/y from 2.6% y/y at 5 year).
- Consumption is expected to remain on firm trend.
US: Wholesale inventories (Oct.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.7%)
- Inventories have increased significantly for autos, computers and machines; total sales have moderated, being down by 0.2% m/m. Sales-to-inventory ratio is now on an increasing trend.
Norway: Industrial production (Oct.): 2.3% m/m (prior: -2% revised from -1.5%)
- Manufacturing production has rebounded from -0.3% m/m past month to 1.5% m/m. The rebound in production was driven by energy, food and basic materials.
- Contrary to some other countries, trend in production is rising.
France: Industrial production (Oct.): 1.2% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -1.6% revised from -1.8%)
- The production in the auto sector has rebounded and activity has also regained in other sectors.
- Nevertheless, yearly trend remained negative: -0.7% y/y for total production; -1.3% y/y for manufacturing sector.
Germany: Industrial production (Oct.): -0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)
- While production in capital goods was up by only 0.3% m/m, the activity in the other sectors was negative, particularly in consumer goods and energy (-3.% m/m in both sectors).
- Yearly trend has turned more volatile in past months but it has rebounded from 0.1% y/y prior month o 1.6% y/y.
Brazil: CPI (Nov.): -0.21% m/m vs -0.09% expected (prior: 0.45%)
- Prices of housing, clothes, transport and health have declined over the month. Yearly trend has moderated from 4.56% y/y to 4.05% y/y, being closer to central bank target.