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Market insight 13.06.2018

Weak eurozone industrial production data, in-line UK CPI

Weak eurozone industrial production data, in-line UK CPI

US: PPI (May): 0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Ex food & energy: 0.3% vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)
  • PPI y/y: 3.1% vs 2.8% expected (prior: 2.6%); core PPI y/y: 2.4% vs 2.3% expected (prior: 2.3%)
  • Largest yearly increase since January 2012, driven by a 16.5% rise in energy prices.
  • Core PPI has been in a 2.2-2.7% range since last August (peaking in March), indicating a firming of price inflation compared to previous years but not a sharp acceleration.

 

Eurozone: Industrial production (April): -0.9% m/m vs -0.7% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)

  • IP y/y: 1.7% vs 2.5% expected (prior: 3.2% revised from 3.0%)
  • A significant decline in energy production (-5.0% m/m) weighed on IP but manufacturing output declined by 0.3% m/m with broad-based weakness both in terms of sectors and countries.
  • This adds to evidence that the economy has not rebounded strongly since Q1’s slowdown.

 

UK: CPI (May): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • CPI y/y: 2.4% as expected (prior: 2.4%)
  • Core CPI: 2.1% y/y as expected (prior: 2.1%)
  • Removing some temporary factors among the most volatile components, underlying inflation trend appears to be slowing.

 

UK: PPI Output prices (May): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.3%)

  • PPI output: 2.9% as expected (prior: 2.5% revised from 2.7%)

 

Brazil: Retail sales (April): 1.0% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 0.3%)

  • Retail sales y/y: 0.6% vs -0.5% expected (prior: 8.0% revised from 6.5%)
  • This provides more evidence that activity gained traction at the beginning of Q2. Prior months' data were also revised upward.

 

Turkey: Industrial production (April): 0.9% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • IP y/y: 6.2% as expected (prior: 7.8% revised from 7.6%)


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