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Market insight 18.03.2019

US: improving sales prospects in housing

US: improving sales prospects in housing

US: NAHB housing market index (March): 62 vs 63 expected (prior: 62)

  • Sentiment index stayed stable; prospects on sales have improved and seemed to progressively recover.
  • Some easing in interest rates has relatively improved some indicators, but the situation remains globally mixed in the sector.

 

Poland: Current account (Jan.): 2316Mio EUR vs 1588Mio expected (prior: -1400Mio)

  • Trade balanced has shown a mild surplus, thanks to a a larger rebound in exports.

 

Poland: Core inflation (Feb.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0%)

  • Inflation was up by 1% y/y after 0.8% y/y the prior month.

 

Russia: Industrial production (Feb.): 4.1% y/y vs 1.5% expected (prior: 1.1%)

  • Production has rebounded thanks to the manufacturing sector (6.6% m/m; 4.6% y/y). Other sectors remained volatile and the trend remains fragile.


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Market insight 19.03.2019

German investor confidence improves again

US: Factory orders (Jan.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • The headline is lower than expected but growth in core capital goods orders was revised slightly up in December.

 

Germany: Zew (March): -3.6 vs -11.0 expected (prior: -13.4)

  • Current situation: 11.1 vs 13.0 expected (prior: 15.0)
  • Investor confidence improved for the fifth consecutive month as global risks subsided.

 

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Jan.): 3.4% y/y vs 3.2% expected (prior: 3.5% revised from 3.4%)

  • This adds to evidence that the UK job market remains solid.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Jan.): 3.9% vs 4.0% expected (prior: 4.0%)

  • Jobless claims change (Feb.): +27k after +15.7k in January
  • A bit ironically, UK unemployment rate falls to lowest since 1975.
Market insight 14.03.2019

US: depressed new home sales in Jan.; some recovery in Brazil and Turkey

US: Initial jobless claims (March 9): 229k vs 225k expected (prior: 223k)

  • Continuing claims: 1776 k after 1758 k prior week.

 

US: New home sales (Jan.): 607k vs 622k expected (prior: 652k revised from 621k)

  • Sales were depressed at the beginning of the year, except in one region; past month data were revised up.
  • Average prices have decreased on both monthly and yearly basis, but remained high in absolute terms.

 

UK: RICS house price balance (Feb.): -28% vs -24% expected (prior: -22%)

  • Sentiment on housing market and prices remained depressed.

 

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Feb.): 0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.7%)

  • Import prices were up by 0.5% m/m, while producer prices were flat over the month.
  • Yearly trend remained negative for both categories, and down by 0.7% y/y globally.

 

Sweden: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 6.2% as expected (prior: 6%)

  • Unemployed is on a rising trend since last Nov.

 

France: CPI (Feb.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.6%)

  • Inflation has been confirmed; the rebound in energy prices has been balanced by lower prices in other sectors.
  • Inflation trend has slightly rebounded from 1.4% y/y to 1.6% y/y.

 

Germany: CPI (Feb.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: -0.8%)

  • Food, clothes and electricity prices have driven the recovery from past month; yearly trend has stabilized at 1.7% y/y.

 

Brazil: Retail sales (Jan.): 1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -1.7%)

  • A broad-based recovery after severe fall in Dec.

 

Turkey: Industrial production (Jan.): 1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -1.3% revised from -1.4%)

  • Activity has rebounded in all major sectors after depressed figures for several months.
  • Yearly trend has turned less depressed from -10% y/y past month to -7.3% y/y.
Market insight 15.03.2019

US: mixed US data in industry, but rising households confidence

US: NY Empire manufacturing (March): 3.7 vs 10 expected (prior: 8.8)

  • Sentiment has decreased on present and future activity, notably on orders.
  • This index points towards a volatile and moderate growth ahead.

 

US: Industrial production (Feb.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.6%)

  • Activity was sustained in electricity and utilities, but it has contracted in manufacturing (-0.4% m/m), particularly on machinery.

 

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Jan.): 7581 vs 7225 expected (prior: 7479 revised from 7335)

  • Job openings have recovered after past month decrease, driven mainly by rises in different services. Hirings and separations have increased in parallel.
  • Demand for labor remains high.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (March): 97.8 vs 95.6 expected (prior: 93.8)

  • Sentiment on current situation and expectations has recovered close to the levels seen in past Oct.-Nov.
  • Views on personal financial situation and on net assets have rebounded from past months; expectations have rebounded from the past months.
  • Willingness to buy houses has increased, while they remained stable for other big items.

 

Eurozone: CPI (Feb.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: -1%)

  • The monthly rebound in inflation has been confirmed, mainly driven by energy prices.
  • Inflation trend remains in a 1.4-1.5% y/y range over the past 3 months. Core inflation has slightly eased from 1.1% y/y to 1% y/y.

 

Germany: Wholesale price (Feb.): 0.3% m/m (prior: -0.7%)

  • The yearly trend has slightly rebounded from 1.1% y/y to 1.6% y/y.

 

Italy: Industrial orders (Jan.): 1.8% m/m (prior: -1.4% revised from -1.8%)

  • While domestic orders remained in contraction, foreign orders have sharply rebounded.
  • Yearly trend in orders and sales was less depressed than past month.

 

Poland: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from 0.1%)

  • Prices of food communication and transport have driven the monthly rebound.
  • Yearly trend has increased from 0.7% y/y in Jan. to 1.2% y/y in Feb.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 13.5% vs 12.8% expected (prior: 12.3%)

  • Unemployed stayed on a regular rising trend.

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Market insight 20.03.2019

UK: inflation trend has stabilized

UK: CPI (Feb.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.8%)

  • Prices of food, household goods and clothes have rebounded the past month, and other sectors have shown flat or modest rises after the decline seen in Jan.
  • Inflation trend has stabilized at 1.9% y/y after 1.8% y/y the past month; core inflation was stable at 1.8% y/y.

 

UK: PPI Input prices (Feb.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.1%)

  • Refined oil prices have mainly driven the monthly rise. Trend in PPI has rebounded from 2.6% y/y to 3.7% y/y.

 

UK: PPI Output prices (Feb.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Prices have shown limited rise, except in a few sectors; yearly trend has barely changed from 2.1% y/y to 2.2%.

 

Germany: PPI (Feb.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Prices of energy and of intermediate goods were down by 0.1% m/m; other prices have shown a limited rise.
  • Yearly trend remained unchanged at % 2.6 y/y.

 

Poland: Industrial production (Feb.): -1.5% m/m vs -3.5% expected (prior: 7.4%)

  • The monthly fall was mainly driven by lower production in electricity and gas (-11% m/m).Trend in production has improved from 6.1% y/y to 6.9% y/y.

 

Poland: PPI (Feb.): 0.5%m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Prices of mining and energy have sharply rebounded (3.5% m/m); trend has accelerated from 2.2% y/y  to 2.9% y/y.

 

Russia: Real wages (Feb.): 0.7% y/y vs 0% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 0.2%)

  • Real wages have continued to slowdown.

 

Russia: Retail sales (Feb.): 2% y/y vs 1.5% expected (prior: 1.6%)

  • Trend in non-food sales has slightly improved.

 

Russia: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 4.9% as expected (prior: 4.9%)

  • Unemployed has declined further over the month.
Market insight 19.03.2019

German investor confidence improves again

US: Factory orders (Jan.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • The headline is lower than expected but growth in core capital goods orders was revised slightly up in December.

 

Germany: Zew (March): -3.6 vs -11.0 expected (prior: -13.4)

  • Current situation: 11.1 vs 13.0 expected (prior: 15.0)
  • Investor confidence improved for the fifth consecutive month as global risks subsided.

 

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Jan.): 3.4% y/y vs 3.2% expected (prior: 3.5% revised from 3.4%)

  • This adds to evidence that the UK job market remains solid.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Jan.): 3.9% vs 4.0% expected (prior: 4.0%)

  • Jobless claims change (Feb.): +27k after +15.7k in January
  • A bit ironically, UK unemployment rate falls to lowest since 1975.
Market insight 15.03.2019

US: mixed US data in industry, but rising households confidence

US: NY Empire manufacturing (March): 3.7 vs 10 expected (prior: 8.8)

  • Sentiment has decreased on present and future activity, notably on orders.
  • This index points towards a volatile and moderate growth ahead.

 

US: Industrial production (Feb.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.6%)

  • Activity was sustained in electricity and utilities, but it has contracted in manufacturing (-0.4% m/m), particularly on machinery.

 

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Jan.): 7581 vs 7225 expected (prior: 7479 revised from 7335)

  • Job openings have recovered after past month decrease, driven mainly by rises in different services. Hirings and separations have increased in parallel.
  • Demand for labor remains high.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (March): 97.8 vs 95.6 expected (prior: 93.8)

  • Sentiment on current situation and expectations has recovered close to the levels seen in past Oct.-Nov.
  • Views on personal financial situation and on net assets have rebounded from past months; expectations have rebounded from the past months.
  • Willingness to buy houses has increased, while they remained stable for other big items.

 

Eurozone: CPI (Feb.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: -1%)

  • The monthly rebound in inflation has been confirmed, mainly driven by energy prices.
  • Inflation trend remains in a 1.4-1.5% y/y range over the past 3 months. Core inflation has slightly eased from 1.1% y/y to 1% y/y.

 

Germany: Wholesale price (Feb.): 0.3% m/m (prior: -0.7%)

  • The yearly trend has slightly rebounded from 1.1% y/y to 1.6% y/y.

 

Italy: Industrial orders (Jan.): 1.8% m/m (prior: -1.4% revised from -1.8%)

  • While domestic orders remained in contraction, foreign orders have sharply rebounded.
  • Yearly trend in orders and sales was less depressed than past month.

 

Poland: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from 0.1%)

  • Prices of food communication and transport have driven the monthly rebound.
  • Yearly trend has increased from 0.7% y/y in Jan. to 1.2% y/y in Feb.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 13.5% vs 12.8% expected (prior: 12.3%)

  • Unemployed stayed on a regular rising trend.