Sustained Q2 GDP growth in Germany; US small firms’ sentiment at record high
US: NFIB Small Business optimism (July): 107.9 vs 106.8 expected (prior: 107.2)
- Sentiment on future economy, capex and hiring has increased from the prior month.
- The index is back to its previous highest levels.
Germany: GDP (Q2-18): 0.5% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.3%)
- GDP growth was more resilient than expected, thanks to dynamic domestic demand, while net exports were negative according to first estimate. Past quarter data were also revised up from initial estimates. More details on GDP data will be published later on.
- Growth trend has slowed on a yearly basis, from 2.8% y/y in Q4-17 to 2% y/y in Q2.
Switzerland: PPI-import prices (July): 0.1% m/m (prior: 0.2%)
- Import prices were up by 6.9% y/y; producer prices were up by 2.1% y/y. These prices have been mainly driven by higher energy, raw material and machinery prices.
France: Unemployment rate (Q2-18): 8.7% vs 8.9% expected (prior: 8.9%)
- Unemployed has decreased by 48 k over the quarter.
UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (July): 4% vs 4.2% expected (prior: 4.2%)
- Claimant count stayed stable at 2.5%.
- Jobless claims have increased by 6.2 k after 9 k the prior month.
- With fewer arrivals of foreign workers, employment of UK nationals has increased.
UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (June): 2.4% y/y vs 2.5% expected (prior: 2.5%)
- Including bonuses, wages were up by 2.7% y/y after 2.8% y/y the prior month.
- Trend in wage growth has accelerated in construction and leisure sectors, but remained contained in other sectors.
- Lower slack in labor could put wages on rising pressures in several sectors.
Eurozone: Industrial production (June): -0.7% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 1.3%)
- After the rebound in May, activity has eased back in June except in energy.
- Activity could remain fragile if concerns on trade war develop further.
Eurozone: GDP (Q2-18): 0.4% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4%)
- Growth estimate for Q2 has been revised up, from 0.3%q to 0.4%q.
- Germany and Eastern countries have been the driving force in Q2, in terms of GDP growth.
- Q3 GDP growth should be at least up by 0.4%q/q.
Germany: Zew (Aug.): 72.6 vs 72.1 expected (prior: 72.4)
- Sentiment among financial community has increased and expectations were less depressed.
Poland: GDP (Q2-18): 0.9% q/q vs 1% expected (prior: 1.6%)
- Growth stayed on a stable yearly trend (5% y/y).