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Market insight 18.04.2018

Inflation trend: declining in UK, on a moderate rise in the Eurozone

Inflation trend: declining in UK, on a moderate rise in the Eurozone

Eurozone: CPI (March): 1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Final inflation was finally lower than in first estimate: 1.3% y/y vs 1.4% y/y expected and 1.1% y/y past month.
  • Core inflation was stable (1% y/y), in line with estimate.
  • Ahead of the ECB meeting, inflation figures will comfort some ECB members (M. Draghi and Praet) in favour of a delayed end of QE and still the need of monetary support.

 

UK: CPI (March): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Inflation trend has continued to ease: 2.5% y/y after 2.7% y/y prior month. Core CPI has eased in parallel (2.3% y/y from 2.4% y/y).
  • Upwards pressures on prices of food, clothes and leisure were compensated by lower prices of household apparels, transport and alcohol.
  • Inflation is easing and coming back closer to official target, as expected, after the rise due to oil prices and weak GBP past year. Nevertheless, the BoE should remain vigilant and there is still a high probability of a rate hike in May.

 

UK: PPI Input prices (March): -0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -1.1%)

  • Yearly trend in prices has rebounded from 3.8% y/y to 4.2% y/y.
  • Rises in energy and metals prices have been more than compensated by flat or declining prices in the other sectors over the month.

 

UK: PPI Output prices (March): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0%)

  • Output prices have moderated from 2.6% y/y to 2.4% y/y.

 

Italy: Industrial orders (Feb.): -0.6% m/m (prior: -4.6% revised from -4.5%)

  • Industrial sales were slightly better oriented: +0.5% m/m after -2.9% m/m prior month.
  • Momentum still looks fragile in industrial activity.

 

Russia: Retail sales (March): 2% y/y vs 2.1% expected (prior: 1.8%)

  • Consumption was on a table trend thanks to rising disposable income ahead of elections.
  • Sanctions and potential rebound of inflation due to volatile currency may put the fragile recovery at risk.

 

Russia: Disposable income (real) (March): 4.1% y/y vs 3.1% expected (prior: 4.3% revised from 4.4%)

  • Real wages were up by 6.5% y/y; decline in inflation and rising wages ahead of elections have underpinned revenues and consumption growth.

 

Russia: Unemployment rate (March): 5% as expected (prior: 5%)


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Market insight 23.04.2018

Flash PMI manufacturing: higher in the US but lower in the eurozone; flash PMI services higher in the US and in the eurozone

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr.): 56.5 vs 55.2 expected (prior: 55.6)

  • Flash estimate of business sentiment in manufacturing has rebounded from past month thanks to new orders and production.
  • These data, if confirmed, will fuel the scenario of a rebound in activity in Q2.

 

US: Markit Services PMI (Apr.): 54.4 vs 54.1 expected (prior: 54)

  • A modest rebound in flash estimate for services: improving new orders, but lower employment.

 

US: Existing home sales (March): 5.6M vs 5.55M expected (prior: 5.54M)

  • A rebound in sales of condos, but a modest rise in single family house. Inventories were slightly on the rise.
  • Median and average prices of houses sold remained on a strong trend (respectively: 5.8% y/y; 4.1% y/y).
  • Trend in sales remain positive, but monthly data were highly volatile over the past four months.

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Apr.): 56 vs 56.1 expected (prior: 56.6)

  • Flash estimate of business sentiment has eroded further from past month; the fall was limited in Germany (-0.1 point) but larger in France (-0.3 pt).
  • Business sentiment has probably weakened in peripherals leading to the monthly fall in total estimate.
  • Growth should stabilize at a slightly lower pace in Q1-Q2 compared to the highs seen in Q4.

 

Eurozone: PMI Services (Apr.): 55 vs 54.6 expected (prior: 54.9)

  • Flash estimate in services has slightly increased from past month; sentiment has increased more in France (+0.5 pt) than in Germany (+0.2 pt).

 

Poland: Retail sales (March): 17.8% m/m vs 16.6% expected (prior: -3%)

  • Trend in sales has accelerated from 7.9% y/y to 9.2% y/y (8.8% y/y in real terms).
  • The rebound was broad-based across sectors.

 

Switzerland: M3 (March): 3.3% y/y (prior: 3.7%)

  • Growth pace of monetary aggregates has slowed down from past month.
Market insight 20.04.2018

Eurozone: improving consumer confidence

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Apr.): 0.4 vs -0.1 expected (prior: 0.1)

  • Flash estimate for consumer confidence has shown a rebound after regular weakening over the past two months (due to lower sentiment on employment and prices development). More details will be provided next week.
  • This could point towards firmer spending in Q2.

 

Germany: PPI (March): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • PPIs have slightly increased from 1.8% y/y to 1.9% y/y.
  • Prices of energy were on a rising trend.

 

Turkey: Consumer confidence (Apr.): 71.9 (prior: 71.3)

  • Sentiment on current and future economic situation was mixed, but the willingness to spend has slightly increased.

 

Market insight 19.04.2018

Mixed Philly Fed business sentiment in the US; declining sales in UK

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Apr.): 23.2 vs 21 expected (prior: 22.3)

  • Sentiment on current situation has slightly increased but the six-month view index has significantly declined from previous highs.
  • Positive view on current situation has been fueled by rising prices paid, employment and average workweek, while shipments and new orders were on the decline.
  • The decline on future view has been fueled by orders, employment and capital expenditure.
  • As the survey is very volatile, it is difficult to really conclude on the underlying trend except a return from previous high level.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Apr. 14): 232k vs 230k expected (prior: 233k)

  • Continuing claims at 1863 k after 1878 k past week.

 

UK: Retail sales (March): -0.5% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.6%)

  • Extraordinary bad weather conditions have weighted down on monthly sales, and the fall was broad-based across sectors.
  • Consumption has weakened in Q1; downside risks remain in place as the political situation has turned more fragile domestically.

 

Poland: Industrial production (March): 11.4% m/m vs 12.4% expected (prior: -2.2%)

  • Technical rebound after the fall past month; the yearly trend has moderated.

 

Poland: PPI (March): 0.4%m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.3%)

  • PPIs have rebounded from -0.1% y/y to 0.3% y/y.

Altro da leggere

Market insight 23.04.2018

Flash PMI manufacturing: higher in the US but lower in the eurozone; flash PMI services higher in the US and in the eurozone

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr.): 56.5 vs 55.2 expected (prior: 55.6)

  • Flash estimate of business sentiment in manufacturing has rebounded from past month thanks to new orders and production.
  • These data, if confirmed, will fuel the scenario of a rebound in activity in Q2.

 

US: Markit Services PMI (Apr.): 54.4 vs 54.1 expected (prior: 54)

  • A modest rebound in flash estimate for services: improving new orders, but lower employment.

 

US: Existing home sales (March): 5.6M vs 5.55M expected (prior: 5.54M)

  • A rebound in sales of condos, but a modest rise in single family house. Inventories were slightly on the rise.
  • Median and average prices of houses sold remained on a strong trend (respectively: 5.8% y/y; 4.1% y/y).
  • Trend in sales remain positive, but monthly data were highly volatile over the past four months.

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Apr.): 56 vs 56.1 expected (prior: 56.6)

  • Flash estimate of business sentiment has eroded further from past month; the fall was limited in Germany (-0.1 point) but larger in France (-0.3 pt).
  • Business sentiment has probably weakened in peripherals leading to the monthly fall in total estimate.
  • Growth should stabilize at a slightly lower pace in Q1-Q2 compared to the highs seen in Q4.

 

Eurozone: PMI Services (Apr.): 55 vs 54.6 expected (prior: 54.9)

  • Flash estimate in services has slightly increased from past month; sentiment has increased more in France (+0.5 pt) than in Germany (+0.2 pt).

 

Poland: Retail sales (March): 17.8% m/m vs 16.6% expected (prior: -3%)

  • Trend in sales has accelerated from 7.9% y/y to 9.2% y/y (8.8% y/y in real terms).
  • The rebound was broad-based across sectors.

 

Switzerland: M3 (March): 3.3% y/y (prior: 3.7%)

  • Growth pace of monetary aggregates has slowed down from past month.
Market insight 20.04.2018

Eurozone: improving consumer confidence

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Apr.): 0.4 vs -0.1 expected (prior: 0.1)

  • Flash estimate for consumer confidence has shown a rebound after regular weakening over the past two months (due to lower sentiment on employment and prices development). More details will be provided next week.
  • This could point towards firmer spending in Q2.

 

Germany: PPI (March): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • PPIs have slightly increased from 1.8% y/y to 1.9% y/y.
  • Prices of energy were on a rising trend.

 

Turkey: Consumer confidence (Apr.): 71.9 (prior: 71.3)

  • Sentiment on current and future economic situation was mixed, but the willingness to spend has slightly increased.

 

Market insight 19.04.2018

Mixed Philly Fed business sentiment in the US; declining sales in UK

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Apr.): 23.2 vs 21 expected (prior: 22.3)

  • Sentiment on current situation has slightly increased but the six-month view index has significantly declined from previous highs.
  • Positive view on current situation has been fueled by rising prices paid, employment and average workweek, while shipments and new orders were on the decline.
  • The decline on future view has been fueled by orders, employment and capital expenditure.
  • As the survey is very volatile, it is difficult to really conclude on the underlying trend except a return from previous high level.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Apr. 14): 232k vs 230k expected (prior: 233k)

  • Continuing claims at 1863 k after 1878 k past week.

 

UK: Retail sales (March): -0.5% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.6%)

  • Extraordinary bad weather conditions have weighted down on monthly sales, and the fall was broad-based across sectors.
  • Consumption has weakened in Q1; downside risks remain in place as the political situation has turned more fragile domestically.

 

Poland: Industrial production (March): 11.4% m/m vs 12.4% expected (prior: -2.2%)

  • Technical rebound after the fall past month; the yearly trend has moderated.

 

Poland: PPI (March): 0.4%m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.3%)

  • PPIs have rebounded from -0.1% y/y to 0.3% y/y.