Unexpected increase in US ISM non-manufacturing index
US: ISM Non manufacturing (Nov.): 60.7 vs 59.0 expected (prior: 60.3)
- Unexpected increase, to less than a point from the cycle high.
- The most forward looking components (business activity and new orders) both increased. On the other hand, the employment component and the new export orders index edged lower.
US: ADP Employment change (Nov.): 179k vs 195k expected (prior: 225k revised from 227k)
- Some softening in job growth after a very strong print in October. The same is expected for non-farm payrolls tomorrow (consensus at 195k after 250k).
US: Initial jobless claims (Dec. 1): 231k vs 225k expected (prior: 235k revised from 234k)
- Jobless claims have been on a rising trend over the past two and a half months but stabilized last week.
US: Factory orders (Oct.): -2.1% m/m vs -2.0% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.7%)
- Close to consensus expectations but details of the report were slightly weaker with core capital goods category showing downward revisions to September growth.
US: Trade balance (Oct.): -55.5 bn USD vs -55.0 bn expected (prior: -54.6 bn revised from -54.0 bn)
- This widening in the trade deficit was mainly driven by a further plunge in exports to China, and suggests that net trade will once again be a drag on GDP growth in Q4.
Germany: Factory orders (Oct.): 0.3% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.3%)
- Y/y: -2.7% vs -3.1% expected (prior: -2.6%)
- Factory orders unexpectedly rose for a third month, offering some hopes for a recovery after the economy contracted in Q3.
Russia: CPI (Nov.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)
- CPI y/y: 3.8% as expected (prior: 3.5%)
- Core CPI: 0.4% vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.4%); 3.4% y/y as expected (prior: 3.1%)
- Inflation accelerated for the 5th consecutive month, which leaves the door open to an interest rate hike next week.