Moderate US inflation
US: CPI (Sept.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Core inflation stayed moderate, up by 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% m/m expected.
- Prices of apparels and computers rebounded in Sept., but energy prices fell and prices in other sectors stayed moderate (rents up by 0.2% m/m).
- Yearly trend has also moderated from 2.9% past month to 2.3% y/y, while trend stayed stable for core inflation at 2.2% y/y.
- Inflation is expected to stay in 2% -2.5% y/y range in the coming months, but upside risks remain, notably on core inflation, as labor is tight and wages on the rise.
US: Initial jobless claims (Oct. 6): 214k vs 207k expected (prior: 207k)
- Continuing claims: 1660 k after 1656 k.
UK: RICS house price balance (Sept.): -2% vs 1% expected (prior: 1% revised from 2%)
- Balance of opinions on prices has deteriorated again with rising concerns about Brexit.
Sweden: CPI (Sept.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.2%)
- Core inflation was up by 0.5% m/m. Trend in inflation has accelerated from 2% y/y to 2.5%y/y for headline inflation and from 2.2% to 2.5% y/y for core inflation due to rising trend in housing and food prices.
France: CPI (Sept.): -0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)
- Large increase has been seen in Sept. in clothes, fresh food and also in energy prices, but they were more than compensated by lower prices in transport.
- Yearly trend in inflation has stabilized at 2.5% y/y.
Spain: CPI (Sept.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: %)
- The rebound in prices has been driven by higher prices of clothes and in housing.
- Trend has slightly accelerated from 2.2% to 2.3% y/y.
Brazil: Retail sales (Aug.): 1.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.5%)
- A large rebound in clothes and personal items. Trend has come back into positive territory (4.3% y/y).
Turkey: Current account (Aug.): 2.59bn USD vs 2.5bn expected (prior: -1.78bn revised from -1.75bn)
- Trade deficit has significantly decreased from past month (USD -1.3 bn from USD -4.8 bn). Balance for services and inflows have more than compensated the trade deficit, fueling a current account surplus.