US: Retail sales (July): 0.5% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.5%)
- Sales were strong in many sectors, but data for the prior month were revised down.
- Sales were particularly strong for food, leisure, clothes and gasoline stations. On the opposite, sales were down for furniture, sports and health. Internet sales remained on a sustained trend.
- Core sales were also strong (0.5% m/m), which bodes well for consumption in Q3.
US: Empire manufacturing (Aug.): 25.6 vs 20 expected (prior: 22.6)
- Sentiment has increased further contrary to expectations; sentiment on the economy has improved as well as shipments, even if new orders have moderated; employment is all seen in moderation, while capex should extend further.
- More worryingly, prices paid have strongly increased.
US: Nonfarm productivity (Q2-18): 2.9% q/q vs 2.4% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)
- Given the rebound in GDP growth on Q2, productivity has logically rebounded with stronger output.
- Total compensation was up by 2% q/q and unit labor costs have contracted by 0.9% q/q.
- On a yearly basis, productivity gains remain muted (1.3% y/y), while total compensation has increased by a strong 3.2% y/y.
US: Industrial production (July): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1% revised from 0.6%)
- Production was strong in autos, computers, and electronics and also for natural gas. Production has moderated for home electronics, utilities and construction supply.
- As past month data were revised higher, trend remains positive despite a mixed picture across the sectors.
US: Business inventories (june): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)
- Inventories have decreased for autos and stayed moderate or flat in other main sectors; sales were up by 0.3% m/m after 1.3% m/m in May.
- Thanks to firm demand, inventories in manufacturers are on a decreasing trend.
US: NAHB housing market index (Aug.): 67 as expected (prior: 68)
- Sentiment has slightly eased on lower future sales and lower buyers’ traffic.
UK: CPI (July): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)
- Mixed picture across sectors: rising prices of transport, leisure but lower prices for food and clothes over the month.
- The yearly change has slightly accelerated from 2.4%y/y the prior month to 2.5% y/y. In this environment, the BoE should maintain its tightening bias.
UK: PPI Input prices (July): 0.5% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)
- Raw materials, energy prices and prices of manufactured goods stayed on a strong rising trend : 10.9% y/y
UK: PPI Output prices (July): 0% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.1%)
- Trend has stabilized on a 3.1% y/y rise.
- As input prices have increased more rapidly than output prices, downwards pressures on margins could result for some firms.
Russia: Industrial production (July): 3.9% y/y vs 2.6% expected (prior: 2.2%)
- Manufacturing production was firmer, up by 4.6% y/y.
Turkey: Unemployment rate (May): 9.7% (prior: 9.6%)
- Due to major troubles in markets and tougher financial conditions for firms, the trend in labor might deteriorate further.