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Market insight 14.01.2019

Falling industrial production in the eurozone

Falling industrial production in the eurozone

Eurozone: Industrial production (Nov.): -1.7% m/m vs -1.5% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

  • IP y/y: -3.3% vs -2.1% expected (prior: 1.2%)
  • Unfortunately this sharp decline cannot be attributed to a fall in energy production as energy output was only down 0.6% m/m in November, nor primarily to the auto industry as car production fell only slightly more than aggregate production (- 1.8%). Capital goods production fell by a particularly steep 2.3%.
  • This adds to evidence that Q4 GDP growth in the eurozone was weak.

 

Turkey: Industrial production (Nov.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -2.2% revised from -1.9%)

  • IP y/y: -6.5% vs -5.4% expected (prior: -5.7%)
  • Worst annual decline since November 2009.


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Market insight 11.01.2019

US headline inflation inched down, but core inflation remains unchanged

US: CPI (Dec): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

  • The plunge in gasoline prices partly explains the m/m fall in headline.
  • Energy prices, transport have fallen during the month; on the opposite, services remained steady (up by 0.3% m/m) and housing by 0.4% m/m.
  • Energy prices have driven trend in headline prices lower, from 2.2% to 1.9% y/y, while core prices remained on a firm trend, unchanged at 2.2% y/y. In this environment, the continued stability of core inflation could give the Fed more room to pause.

 

France: Business sentiment (Bank of France) (Dec): 103 vs 100 expected (prior: 101)

  • Sentiment has slightly rebounded in manufacturing but unchanged on services and construction.
  • In manufacturing, sentiment on production, deliveries and orders has improved from past month.

 

Italy: Industrial production (Nov): -1.6% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.1%)

  • On a y/y basis: -2.6% vs 0.4% expected (prior: 1%)
  • Energy prices have increased while consumer goods, capital goods and intermediate goods have declined.

 

UK: Industrial production (Nov): -0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.6%)

  • On a y/y basis: -1.5% vs -0.7% expected (prior: -0.9% revised from -0.8%)
  • Manufacturing production: -0.3% vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.9%); -1.1% y/y vs -0.7% expected (prior: -0.7% revised from -1%).

 

Market insight 15.01.2019

US: declining monthly PPIs on lower energy, still falling business confidence in New York

US: Empire manufacturing (Jan.): 3.9 vs 10 expected (prior: 11.5 revised from 10.9)

  • Sentiment has declined further after the fall seen the prior month (index slightly revised up).
  • On current and future views, the fall was driven by lower new orders, shipment and also lower employment.
  • The index was back to the mid-2017 and 2015 levels, pointing towards a renewed mini cycle (the slowdown part) in industry.

 

US: PPI (Dec.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Lower energy prices and lower trade services have driven the changes on PPIs.
  • The yearly trend stayed stable at 2.5% y/y; core PPIs were flat over the month and also stayed stable on a yearly basis (2.8% y/y).
  • These data should help the Fed to be patient.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (Nov.): -0.5% m/m (prior: 0.2% revised from -0.2%)

  • The yearly trend for consumption has contracted by -0.5% y/y after 1.5% y/y in past month.

 

France: CPI (Dec.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Inflation has been confirmed back below 2% y/y, at 1.9% y/y, on lower energy prices.

 

Germany: GDP YoY (2018): 1.5% y/y as expected (prior: 2.2%)

  • First GDP estimate for the whole year has pointed towards a marked slowdown from above 2% growth in 2017.
  • Implicitly growth in Q4 (official number to be released by 14th Feb.) was mildly positive (around 0.2% q/q) based on preliminary data.
  • By sector, export performances and consumption have slowed down significantly in 2018, while investment stayed more dynamic. 2019 growth outlook is around 1.5%, with still downside risks in place notably on Q119.

 

Spain: CPI (Dec.): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Inflation has been confirmed on a lower trend thanks to falling energy prices. The yearly trend has moderated from 1.7% y/y to 1.2% y/y.

 

Poland: CPI (Dec.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

  • As estimated, inflation trend has moderated from 1.3% y/y to 1.1% y/y; Prices of energy and of clothes have both declined on a monthly basis.

 

Brazil: Retail sales (Nov.): 2.9% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -0.4%)

  • Sales have rebounded more than expected after downward revisions to past month data. Purchases of furniture, household goods have strongly rebounded after the election.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 11.6% vs 11.4% expected (prior: 11.4%)

  • The unemployment ratio stayed on a rising trend for several months.
Market insight 17.01.2019

US Philly Fed rebounded on January

US: Initial jobless claims (Jan.12): 213k vs 220k expected (prior: 216k)

  • Continuing claims: 1737 k after 1719 k past week.

 

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Jan.): 17 vs 9.5 expected (prior: 9.1 revised from 9.4)

  • A stronger than expected rebound, after downward revision to past month.
  • Current views and expectations have strongly rebounded from past month, recovering to levels seen in Q3-18.
  • The current views have improved thanks to a rebound in new orders and a fall in inventories. Number of employees has decreased as well as prices (both received and paid).
  • Expectations have rebounded thanks mainly to firmer shipments, higher employees and increasing workweek; new orders have moderated but remained at a high level.
  • This index has rebounded after a regular fall in H2-18: this argues in favour of a mini cycle, with hope of some rebound in the future.

 

UK: RICS house price balance (Dec.): -19% vs -13% expected (prior: -11%)

  • Opinions on house prices and sales have strongly deteriorated, and real sales stayed on a regular downward trend.

 

Eurozone: CPI (Dec.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Inflation has stabilized despite lower energy prices during the month under review; trend has moderated from 1.9% y/y past month to 1.6% y/y.
  • Core inflation was up by 0.5% m/m and then was stable at 1%; services were up by 0.9% m/m an up by 1.3% y/y.

Altro da leggere

Market insight 17.01.2019

US Philly Fed rebounded on January

US: Initial jobless claims (Jan.12): 213k vs 220k expected (prior: 216k)

  • Continuing claims: 1737 k after 1719 k past week.

 

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Jan.): 17 vs 9.5 expected (prior: 9.1 revised from 9.4)

  • A stronger than expected rebound, after downward revision to past month.
  • Current views and expectations have strongly rebounded from past month, recovering to levels seen in Q3-18.
  • The current views have improved thanks to a rebound in new orders and a fall in inventories. Number of employees has decreased as well as prices (both received and paid).
  • Expectations have rebounded thanks mainly to firmer shipments, higher employees and increasing workweek; new orders have moderated but remained at a high level.
  • This index has rebounded after a regular fall in H2-18: this argues in favour of a mini cycle, with hope of some rebound in the future.

 

UK: RICS house price balance (Dec.): -19% vs -13% expected (prior: -11%)

  • Opinions on house prices and sales have strongly deteriorated, and real sales stayed on a regular downward trend.

 

Eurozone: CPI (Dec.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Inflation has stabilized despite lower energy prices during the month under review; trend has moderated from 1.9% y/y past month to 1.6% y/y.
  • Core inflation was up by 0.5% m/m and then was stable at 1%; services were up by 0.9% m/m an up by 1.3% y/y.
Market insight 16.01.2019

US: a rebound in sentiment in housing; weakening inflation in many countries after decline in oil prices

US: Import price index (Dec.): -1% m/m vs -1.3% expected (prior: -1.9% revised from -1.6%)

  • Ex energy, prices were up by 0.3% m/m (-0.3% m/m the prior month); yearly trend has moderated from 0.5% y/y to -0.6% y/y.
  • Export prices were also down by 0.6% m/m, and have moderated from 1.8% y/y to 1.1% y/y.

 

US: NAHB housing market index (Jan.): 58 vs 56 expected (prior: 56)

  • Sentiment in housing has rebounded on higher present and future sales after interest rates have moderated.

 

UK: CPI (Dec.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Prices of food, transport and household goods have accelerated, while those of clothes decreased over the month.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 2.3% y/y past month to 2.1% y/y; core inflation has slightly increased from 1.8% y/y to 1.9% y/y.
  • Less pressure on BoE from inflation, but still concerns from tight labor and uncertain political environment.

 

UK: PPI Input prices (Dec.): -1% m/m vs -1.4% expected (prior: -2.6% revised from -2.3%)

  • Yearly trend has moderated further from 5.3% y/y to 3.7% y/y.
  • A large fall in energy prices and some contraction in chemical while other prices have slightly increased.

 

UK: PPI Output prices (Dec.): -0.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

  • Core PPI were up by 0.2% m/m; yearly trend has moderated from 3% y/y to 2.5% y/y, while core prices have increased from 2.4% y/y to 2.5% y/y.

 

Germany: CPI (Dec.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Inflation has been confirmed lower due to declining oil prices and for clothes. Core inflation was up by 0.1%m/m after 0% m/m.
  • Trend has moderated from 2.3% y/y to 1.7% y/y. Core inflation was slightly down from 1.5% y/y to 1.4% y/y.

 

Italy: Industrial orders (Dec.): -2% m/m (prior: 1.8% revised from 2%)

  • While foreign orders stayed positive (+1.4% m/m), domestic orders have drastically fallen (-4.4% m/m), due to transport and pharma.
  • Industrial sales were up by 0.6% m/m (after 2% m/m prior month), driven by foreign sales.
Market insight 15.01.2019

US: declining monthly PPIs on lower energy, still falling business confidence in New York

US: Empire manufacturing (Jan.): 3.9 vs 10 expected (prior: 11.5 revised from 10.9)

  • Sentiment has declined further after the fall seen the prior month (index slightly revised up).
  • On current and future views, the fall was driven by lower new orders, shipment and also lower employment.
  • The index was back to the mid-2017 and 2015 levels, pointing towards a renewed mini cycle (the slowdown part) in industry.

 

US: PPI (Dec.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Lower energy prices and lower trade services have driven the changes on PPIs.
  • The yearly trend stayed stable at 2.5% y/y; core PPIs were flat over the month and also stayed stable on a yearly basis (2.8% y/y).
  • These data should help the Fed to be patient.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (Nov.): -0.5% m/m (prior: 0.2% revised from -0.2%)

  • The yearly trend for consumption has contracted by -0.5% y/y after 1.5% y/y in past month.

 

France: CPI (Dec.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Inflation has been confirmed back below 2% y/y, at 1.9% y/y, on lower energy prices.

 

Germany: GDP YoY (2018): 1.5% y/y as expected (prior: 2.2%)

  • First GDP estimate for the whole year has pointed towards a marked slowdown from above 2% growth in 2017.
  • Implicitly growth in Q4 (official number to be released by 14th Feb.) was mildly positive (around 0.2% q/q) based on preliminary data.
  • By sector, export performances and consumption have slowed down significantly in 2018, while investment stayed more dynamic. 2019 growth outlook is around 1.5%, with still downside risks in place notably on Q119.

 

Spain: CPI (Dec.): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Inflation has been confirmed on a lower trend thanks to falling energy prices. The yearly trend has moderated from 1.7% y/y to 1.2% y/y.

 

Poland: CPI (Dec.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

  • As estimated, inflation trend has moderated from 1.3% y/y to 1.1% y/y; Prices of energy and of clothes have both declined on a monthly basis.

 

Brazil: Retail sales (Nov.): 2.9% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -0.4%)

  • Sales have rebounded more than expected after downward revisions to past month data. Purchases of furniture, household goods have strongly rebounded after the election.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 11.6% vs 11.4% expected (prior: 11.4%)

  • The unemployment ratio stayed on a rising trend for several months.