US: strong durable goods orders but weakening consumers expectations
US: Durable goods orders (Sept.): 1.9% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)
- New orders were more sustained than expected thanks to aircraft and autos; core order (new orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft) were up by 1% m/m after upward revisions to past month data (2.1% m/m).
- Orders have rebounded for transport-autos and metals, while they decreased for electrical and machinery over the month.
- Shipments were up by 0.3 % m/m (-0.3% m/m the prior month) and inventories were up by 0.4% m/m (-0.1% m/m the prior month).
- With resuming activity and confidence in the manufacturing sector, durable goods have rebounded pointing towards parallel rebound of private capex in Q3 after large decrease in Q2.
US: Housing prices (FHFA) (Aug.): 1.5% q/q vs 0.7% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 1%)
- A sharp rebound over the month and broad-based across districts.
US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (Aug.): 5.18% y/y vs 4.2% expected (prior: 4.12% revised from 3.95%)
- Prices remained on a regular upward trend (0.47 % m/m); all districts have contributed positively to the rise in prices.
US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Oct.): 100-9 vs 102 expected (prior: 101.3 revised from 101.8)
- Confidence has eased somewhat from the previous month; sentiment on current conditions has increased further, while expectations have eased (from 102.9 to 98.4).
- Positive views on current conditions were fuelled by still rising momentum in jobs available and ongoing positive economic environment.
- Expectations have weakened due to more cautious 6-month views: some moderation is expected in economic activity from today, and a mixed situation expected on labor and income.
- Willingness to buy in 6-month horizon has eased for cars and large items but increased further for houses.
- Expectations were volatile during the year and the index is back to levels seen in July-August, period in which contagion cases were high in the US.
US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Oct.): 29 vs 18 expected (prior: 21)
- Sentiment on current conditions has strongly rebounded thanks to higher shipments and new orders; 6-month expectations have declined after a strong rebound the prior month, showing a more cautious view on global activity.
Eurozone: M3 (Sept.): 10.4% y/y vs 9.6% expected (prior: 9.5%)
- M2 (10.3% y/y) and M1 (13.8% y/y) have shown in parallel an accelerating trend over the month.
- Credit to the private sector has also accelerated further from 4.5% y/y the prior month to 4.7% y/y.
Spain: Unemployment rate (Q3-20): 16.26% vs 16% expected (prior: 15.33%)
- Despite a rise in employment, unemployed has increased more, and the unemployment ratio has gained further, slightly more than expected.