Our experts examine the tumultuous US election landscape and historical market behaviour during election years, as well as anticipate the fiscal challenges awaiting the next president amidst record-high US federal debt levels.

In the latest UBP Headlines, we take a close look at the current US election landscape where former President Donald Trump is currently leading the polls in the majority of battleground states crucial for securing the presidential race. We also explore how markets have behaved during previous US election years. In non-recessionary periods, investment returns during US elections have been favourable for equity and credit investors. Looking ahead to November, the pre-election period is anticipated to present compelling opportunities, as incumbent politicians seek to assuage the fears of an anxious electorate. Regardless of the outcome, the next president will confront substantial fiscal challenges amidst the escalating US federal debt burden since the US federal government’s debt-to-GDP ratio reached 120% in 2023, hitting the highest level since 1945.

Investors are wondering what is in store in the coming months; read our Headlines for the full analysis from our experts to see what they might expect.

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