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Monthly Investment Outlook

Monthly Investment Outlook

We publish a Monthly Investment Outlook that highlights our convictions on equities and bonds, as well as recent asset allocation changes.



Summary

  • MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - ‘Whatever it takes’ Global Edition
  • GLOBAL TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION - Asymmetric solutions are valuable
  • UBP ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - Services and consumption underpin growth outlook
  • UBP ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - Monetary and fiscal policy: A new deal in sight
  • GLOBAL EQUITIES - Looking to introduce additional protection after the June rally
  • GLOBAL BONDS - Stay invested in carry strategies
  • RECENT VIEW CHANGES - Taking advantage of low volatility to expand asymmetry in portfolios

  • Global equities rebounded sharply in June as central banks succumbed to market pressure and pivoted communications towards an easier policy bias looking ahead.
  • Economic data continues to show a slowing manufacturing sector around the world. However, June saw early signs of a faltering American consumer, as consumer confidence has begun to ease presenting a more uncertain outlook.
  • Though markets cheered potential ‘whatever it takes’1 Fed, ECB and China monetary policy easing, we do not believe monetary policy alone will be sufficient to reverse the ongoing global slowdown. Instead, investors should focus on prospects for fiscal stimulus in Europe and/or China in the months ahead as a more credible catalyst to a bottoming out and turn in the economic and earnings cycle.
  • Expectations going into the 2nd quarter earnings season appear sufficiently conservative at near 0% for US corporates to support the idea that modest upside surprises are more likely than downside surprises in the weeks ahead.
  • June’s rebound leaves the valuation issues, which had begun to recede in May, once more a concern as US PE ratios again test the September 2018 and April 2019 highs. Despite the rally however, sentiment measures suggest a historically bearish tilt among investors leaving us reluctant to become overly cautious at this juncture.
  • With monetary and potentially fiscal policy tools set to be deployed and sentiment already cautiously positioned, we continue to believe that the capital protected exposure we introduced in May will prove valuable over the summer months.
  • Recognising how the June rebound leaves valuations as a headwind once again, we look to introduce additional ‘protection’ in portfolios with asymmetry features. With volatility just above 2018-19 lows, these positions add protection against the prospect of negative economic or geopolitical surprises as seen in May while retaining existing exposure to allow us to participate in any upside should fiscal and monetary stimulus emerge.
  • Despite the recent rally in gold, we now view pullbacks as a tactical opportunity to add to existing positions as falling real interest rates and potential weakening in the USD bring tailwinds to gold looking ahead.
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Analisi

Investment Outlook 2019

A look back on UBP's Investment Outlook

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