1. Newsroom
  2. US retail sales below expectations
Menu
Market insight 17.11.2020

US retail sales below expectations

US retail sales below expectations

US: Retail sales (Oct.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1.6% revised from 1.9%)

  • Sales have sharply slowed down and came below than expected; sales were negative in several sectors: food, furniture, clothes and health; only electronics and on-line sales were up over the month (a flavour of lockdown related sales and due to Amazone's Prime Day).
  • Core sales were up by 0.1% m/m after 0.9% m/m the prior month.
  • Momentum is fading on domestic demand in Q4, even with no global lockdown but rising contagion cases and local restrictions.

 

US: Industrial production (Oct.): 1.1% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.6%)

  • Activity has strengthened in manufacturing (1.1% m/m) and was also strong in utility-electricity sector (3.9%m/m).
  • Within manufacturing, activity was firmer in defense, machinery, construction supply and business supplies; production in autos was down by 0.1% m/m.
  • A more positive tone in industry past month than in consumer confidence and sales.

 

US: Business inventories (Sept.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Inventories have increased in retail and auto sectors. Sales were up by 0.6% m/m after 0.9% m/m the prior month.

 

US: NAHB housing market index (Nov.): 90 vs 85 expected (prior: 85)

  • Sentiment on housing has increased further to reach new highs.
  • Strong rise in current single-family houses sales have driven the rebound, while opinions on future have marginally increased from the prior month. Volatility in rates could accelerate transactions at year-end.

 

Norway: GDP Mainland (Q3-20): 5.2% q/q as expected (prior: -6% revised from -6.3%)

  • Activity has rebounded thanks to consumption (9.5% q/q) and to public consumption (3.6% q/q), while investment has contracted further; net export was positive, but it has contributed less than in Q2, while inventories have increased in Q3.
  • A -3.6% y/y contraction is expected in 2020, followed by a 3.5% forecasted rebound in 2021.


Expertise

Swiss & Global Equities

Why Swiss equities now? This market offers equity investors the stability and agility they need to navigate this volatile period. 

Read more
Expertise

European Equities

European equities offer unrivalled opportunities in terms of breadth of sector and market exposure.

Read more

Actualités les plus lues

Market insight 23.11.2020

Business sentiment: positive momentum in place in the US vs weakening sentiment in services in Europe

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 56.7 vs 53 expected (prior: 53.4)

  • Contrary to expectations and to some regional surveys, momentum remained positive in manufacturing from the prior month.
  • The index has increased further to reach the highs seen in 2018.

 

US: Markit Services PMI (Nov.): 57.7 vs 55 expected (prior: 56.9)

  • Sentiment in services has also increased further from the prior month; despite some local restrictions at state level and slower high frequency indicators in services in big cities, sentiment remained on a positive momentum.
  • The service index has recovered to the highs seen in 2018.

 

UK: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 55.2 vs 50.5 expected (prior: 53.7)

  • Sentiment has increased further over the month, contrary to expectations.
  • Despite weakening sentiment on new orders, momentum remained positive in manufacturing industry, with prospects of a vaccine production.

 

UK: PMI Services (Nov.): 45.8 vs 43 expected (prior: 51.4)

  • With renewed lockdown, sentiment has sharply decreased in services from the prior month, as these sectors were the most hit by restrictions; nevertheless, the index remained above expectations and was back to June or Feb. levels.

 

Switzerland: M3 (Oct.): 5.6% y/y vs 4.1% expected (prior: 4.2%)

  • M1 and M3 have strongly accelerated over the month, due to expanding liquidities.

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 53.6 vs 53.2 expected (prior: 54.8)

  • Sentiment has declined from the prior month, but less than expected.
  • According to preliminary data, sentiment has sharply declined in France (index at 49.1), while it has only modestly decreased in Germany, remaining relatively high (57.9).

 

Eurozone: PMI Services (Nov.): 41.3 vs 42 expected (prior: 46.9)

  • With restrictions and new lockdown, sentiment has significantly decreased in services.
  • According to preliminary data, sentiment has plunged back to low levels in France (index at 38 from 46.5); index has also decreased in Germany, but at a lower extend (from 49.5 to 46.2).

 

Poland: Retail sales (Oct.): 2.3% m/m vs 2.9% expected (prior: -1.8%)

  • Highly volatile data; the rebound was mainly driven by household goods, food and pharma products.
  • The yearly trend was negative, down by 2.5% y/y.
Market insight 20.11.2020

Firmer than expected UK retail sales

UK: GFK consumer confidence (Nov.): -33 vs -34 expected (prior: -31)

  • Consumers remained worried about economic conditions and sentiment has deteriorated over the month on present and future personal financial conditions.
  • The index remained above the lows seen in March (index at -37)

 

UK: Retail sales (Oct.): 1.2% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 1.5%)

  • Sales were better than expected, driven by household goods, sales in non-specialized stores and by internet sales.
  • Pre-Christmas sales and inventory building in a lockdown environment have boosted sales; consequently, sales in Nov. should significantly fall.

 

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Nov.): -17.6 vs -18 expected (prior: -15.5)

  • Consumer confidence has decreased slightly less than expected from the prior month, according to preliminary estimates.
  • The index plunged at -22 in March and rebounded to -14 in Sept.; with renewed lockdown, the index was back in the middle of this range; if lockdown lasts longer than expected, confidence and activity should decline further.

 

Germany: PPI (Oct.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Prices of energy and basic goods were up by 0.1 %m/m, while those of non-durable consumer goods were down by 0.2% m/m.
  • Yearly trend was just less negative, from -1% y/y the prior month to -0.7% y/y.

 

Italy: Industrial orders (Sept.): 3.2% m/m (prior: 5.8% revised from 6.1%)

  • Industrial sales were down by 3.2% m/m after 5.6% m/m the prior month.
  • Foreign orders were flat over the month, only domestic orders were up by 5% m/m.

 

Poland: Industrial production (Oct.): 3.2% m/m vs 2.5% expected (prior: 15.5%)

  • The pace of activity has globally slowed down over the month; activity remained sustained in mining and utility sectors, while it looked on moderate pace in manufacturing (up by 2.3% m/m after 17% m/m the prior month).

 

Turkey: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 80.1 (prior: 81.9)

  • Confidence has decreased over the month; the fall was broad-based on sub-components but driven by lower expectations on future economic activity.
Market insight 18.11.2020

US housing starts on record highs

US: Housing starts (Oct.): 1530k vs 1460k expected (prior: 1459k revised from 1415k)

  • Building permits: 1545 k vs 1567 k expected; 1545 k prior month.
  • Housing starts have increased further, particularly for single family houses and data were back to the 2019 highs. Building permits for single family houses have increased in parallel, while total permits stayed below expectations.
  • Despite some losing momentum in several sectors (retail sales, consumer confidence, regional business confidence) demand for housing remained strong especially for houses outside cities, benefiting from still low interest rates and a remaining healthy labour.

 

UK: CPI (Oct.): 0% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • While prices of clothes and education were on the rise over the month, prices for energy, housing and health have declined on a monthly basis.
  • Yearly trend in headline inflation has accelerated from 0.5% y/y the prior month to 0.7% y/y. Core inflation has also gained further, from 1.3% y/y to 1.5% y/y. Despite these trends, inflation remained well below target, and BoE's communication this week has pointed towards further accommodation if necessary.

 

UK: PPI Input prices (Oct.): 0.2% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 1.1%)

  • Prices were on a less negative trend, from -2.2% y/y the prior month to -1.3% y/y.

 

UK: PPI Output prices (Oct.): 0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • Energy prices were down over the month.
  • Yearly trend has turned less negative from -1.6% y/y the prior month to -1.3% y/y.

 

Eurozone: CPI (Oct.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Core inflation was up by 0.1 % m/m; over the month, the rises in food and energy prices have been balanced by decreasing service prices.
  • Yearly trend remained stable, down by 0.3% y/y.

 


A lire également

Market insight 23.11.2020

Business sentiment: positive momentum in place in the US vs weakening sentiment in services in Europe

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 56.7 vs 53 expected (prior: 53.4)

  • Contrary to expectations and to some regional surveys, momentum remained positive in manufacturing from the prior month.
  • The index has increased further to reach the highs seen in 2018.

 

US: Markit Services PMI (Nov.): 57.7 vs 55 expected (prior: 56.9)

  • Sentiment in services has also increased further from the prior month; despite some local restrictions at state level and slower high frequency indicators in services in big cities, sentiment remained on a positive momentum.
  • The service index has recovered to the highs seen in 2018.

 

UK: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 55.2 vs 50.5 expected (prior: 53.7)

  • Sentiment has increased further over the month, contrary to expectations.
  • Despite weakening sentiment on new orders, momentum remained positive in manufacturing industry, with prospects of a vaccine production.

 

UK: PMI Services (Nov.): 45.8 vs 43 expected (prior: 51.4)

  • With renewed lockdown, sentiment has sharply decreased in services from the prior month, as these sectors were the most hit by restrictions; nevertheless, the index remained above expectations and was back to June or Feb. levels.

 

Switzerland: M3 (Oct.): 5.6% y/y vs 4.1% expected (prior: 4.2%)

  • M1 and M3 have strongly accelerated over the month, due to expanding liquidities.

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 53.6 vs 53.2 expected (prior: 54.8)

  • Sentiment has declined from the prior month, but less than expected.
  • According to preliminary data, sentiment has sharply declined in France (index at 49.1), while it has only modestly decreased in Germany, remaining relatively high (57.9).

 

Eurozone: PMI Services (Nov.): 41.3 vs 42 expected (prior: 46.9)

  • With restrictions and new lockdown, sentiment has significantly decreased in services.
  • According to preliminary data, sentiment has plunged back to low levels in France (index at 38 from 46.5); index has also decreased in Germany, but at a lower extend (from 49.5 to 46.2).

 

Poland: Retail sales (Oct.): 2.3% m/m vs 2.9% expected (prior: -1.8%)

  • Highly volatile data; the rebound was mainly driven by household goods, food and pharma products.
  • The yearly trend was negative, down by 2.5% y/y.
Market insight 20.11.2020

Firmer than expected UK retail sales

UK: GFK consumer confidence (Nov.): -33 vs -34 expected (prior: -31)

  • Consumers remained worried about economic conditions and sentiment has deteriorated over the month on present and future personal financial conditions.
  • The index remained above the lows seen in March (index at -37)

 

UK: Retail sales (Oct.): 1.2% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 1.5%)

  • Sales were better than expected, driven by household goods, sales in non-specialized stores and by internet sales.
  • Pre-Christmas sales and inventory building in a lockdown environment have boosted sales; consequently, sales in Nov. should significantly fall.

 

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Nov.): -17.6 vs -18 expected (prior: -15.5)

  • Consumer confidence has decreased slightly less than expected from the prior month, according to preliminary estimates.
  • The index plunged at -22 in March and rebounded to -14 in Sept.; with renewed lockdown, the index was back in the middle of this range; if lockdown lasts longer than expected, confidence and activity should decline further.

 

Germany: PPI (Oct.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Prices of energy and basic goods were up by 0.1 %m/m, while those of non-durable consumer goods were down by 0.2% m/m.
  • Yearly trend was just less negative, from -1% y/y the prior month to -0.7% y/y.

 

Italy: Industrial orders (Sept.): 3.2% m/m (prior: 5.8% revised from 6.1%)

  • Industrial sales were down by 3.2% m/m after 5.6% m/m the prior month.
  • Foreign orders were flat over the month, only domestic orders were up by 5% m/m.

 

Poland: Industrial production (Oct.): 3.2% m/m vs 2.5% expected (prior: 15.5%)

  • The pace of activity has globally slowed down over the month; activity remained sustained in mining and utility sectors, while it looked on moderate pace in manufacturing (up by 2.3% m/m after 17% m/m the prior month).

 

Turkey: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 80.1 (prior: 81.9)

  • Confidence has decreased over the month; the fall was broad-based on sub-components but driven by lower expectations on future economic activity.
Market insight 19.11.2020

US: weakening business confidence but record existing home sales

US: Initial jobless claims (Nov.14): 742k vs 700k expected (prior: 711k revised from 709k)

  • Continuing claims: 6372 k after 6801 k the prior week.
  • Ongoing restrictions in some States could revert past improvement seen in the previous weeks.

 

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Nov.): 26.3 vs 22.5 expected (prior: 32.3)

  • Sentiment has declined from the prior month, but less than expected; on current situation, sentiment on new orders and shipments has decreased, while inventories, employment unfilled orders and prices were positive and have slightly increased.
  • The 6-month views have more significantly decreased from the prior month and all sub-components have declined.
  • Even if sentiment index remained at a high level, several surveys show index passed a peak passed in some indicators in industry and globally slower momentum.

 

US: Existing home sales (Oct.): 6.85M vs 6.47M expected (prior: 6.54M)

  • Sales have reached record highs since 2005; sales of single-family houses were booming, and sales of condos have increased in parallel. Inventories were down and prices have reached 12% y/y (mean prices). Sales have increased in all regions.

 

Switzerland: Trade balance (Oct.): 3.86 Bn CHF (prior: 3.05Bn)

  • Trade surplus has increased from the prior month due to significant slowdown in imports.
  • Real exports: -0.5% m/m after -1.8% m/m the prior month; real imports: -3.4% m/m after 3.2% m/m the prior month.

 

Sweden: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 8.6% vs 9% expected (prior: 8.9% revised from 9%)

  • Unemployed has slightly decreased over the month.

 

Turkey: Central bank has increased its key rates from 10.25% to 15%.

  • The new governor has sharply increased key rates, as expected, to fight inflation and stabilize the currency.

 

Indonesia: central bank cut 7D Reverse Repo to 3.75% vs expected 4.00% (prior: 4.00%)

  • Bank Indonesia cut rates by 25 bps to a record low. The consensus had not priced in a rate cut in December, but the bank cited recessionary pressures amid rising COVID-19 cases as the main reasons.
  • The IDR fell 0.66% against the USD while Indonesian stocks gained 0.66%.

 

Philippines: central bank cut overnight borrowing rate to 2.00% vs expected 2.250% (prior: 2.250%)

  • Bank cut rates by 25 bps, marking a total of 200 bps this year. The bank cited benign inflation and double-digit contraction in Q3 as the main reasons for the cut.
  • The bank flagged that further cuts to the RRR may follow, as loan demand remains subdued as bank credit tightened.