US retail sales below expectations
US: Retail sales (Oct.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1.6% revised from 1.9%)
- Sales have sharply slowed down and came below than expected; sales were negative in several sectors: food, furniture, clothes and health; only electronics and on-line sales were up over the month (a flavour of lockdown related sales and due to Amazone's Prime Day).
- Core sales were up by 0.1% m/m after 0.9% m/m the prior month.
- Momentum is fading on domestic demand in Q4, even with no global lockdown but rising contagion cases and local restrictions.
US: Industrial production (Oct.): 1.1% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.6%)
- Activity has strengthened in manufacturing (1.1% m/m) and was also strong in utility-electricity sector (3.9%m/m).
- Within manufacturing, activity was firmer in defense, machinery, construction supply and business supplies; production in autos was down by 0.1% m/m.
- A more positive tone in industry past month than in consumer confidence and sales.
US: Business inventories (Sept.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Inventories have increased in retail and auto sectors. Sales were up by 0.6% m/m after 0.9% m/m the prior month.
US: NAHB housing market index (Nov.): 90 vs 85 expected (prior: 85)
- Sentiment on housing has increased further to reach new highs.
- Strong rise in current single-family houses sales have driven the rebound, while opinions on future have marginally increased from the prior month. Volatility in rates could accelerate transactions at year-end.
Norway: GDP Mainland (Q3-20): 5.2% q/q as expected (prior: -6% revised from -6.3%)
- Activity has rebounded thanks to consumption (9.5% q/q) and to public consumption (3.6% q/q), while investment has contracted further; net export was positive, but it has contributed less than in Q2, while inventories have increased in Q3.
- A -3.6% y/y contraction is expected in 2020, followed by a 3.5% forecasted rebound in 2021.